by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] A visit to Syria by a high-ranking Turkish delegation (comprising the heads of the Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry, and intelligence chief) would seem unsurprising. After "Erdogan took over Syria" (as Donald Trump famously described the situation ), the countries became communicating vessels. But the current visit by Hakan Fidan and Co. is anything but ordinary.
Several factors give particular significance to Turkish emissaries: the inability of the Syrian interim authorities to establish full control over the northeast of the country, the fuss surrounding the political future of the Turkish minister himself, and Israel's activity.
Each of these scenarios is closely interconnected, and they all pose a problem for ErdoÄŸan: the Kurdish issue, the transition of power, and the geopolitical standoff in the Eastern Mediterranean. And all these factors are tied into a tight Syrian knot.
REBELLIOUS KURDS
The arrival of the delegation led by Fidan was timed to coincide with the anniversary of Bashar al-Assad's overthrow. Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan must and wants to show who's boss.
The two countries have many issues to discuss: continued support for the development of the armed forces and defense capability, economic exchange, and the reconstruction of Syria. Not everything depends on Turkey in these matters, although Fidan speaks of investment opportunities and the interest of Turkish textile manufacturers in the Syrian market.
Ankara is helping Damascus emerge from international isolation. In this regard, Fidan didn't forget to praise Donald Trump : "The repeal of the Caesar Act is a major contribution to regional stability."
However, the most important and nerve-wracking issue is the Kurds.
The People's Protection Units (YPG), which forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have never been integrated into the new Syrian army.
Ankara accuses both structures of violating the March 10 agreement. On that day, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi signed a document integrating Kurdish military and civilian structures into state institutions.
"Unfortunately, we are not seeing any progress in implementing the agreement. We see that the SDF has no intention of implementing it," the Turkish Foreign Minister said indignantly during a meeting with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad al-Shibani.
Previously, Turkey independently carried out operations against the YPG and SDF, risking periodic conflict with the United States, which has bases in northeastern Syria and considers the Kurds its allies against ISIS (banned in Russia).
But since Assad left and pro-Turkish forces took power, Ankara has been trying to resolve the Kurdish issue through al-Sharaa. Damascus hasn't been successful so far, and so the Erdogan government is pushing its Syrian client to accelerate the dismantling of the YPG and SDF.
It's no coincidence that clashes between Kurds and transitional government forces broke out in Aleppo on the day of the Turkish visit. Ankara is pushing certain Syrian army units to escalate the situation.
CAMPAIGN AGAINST FIDAN
No one in ErdoÄŸan's team and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) doubts that the YPG must be dealt with. But the Foreign Minister is taking a much tougher stance than the others. Four days before his trip to Damascus, he said the following: "They must fulfill the terms of the deal. It's not that we prefer the use of military force, but the patience of both sides is running out."
Had this been stated between 2016 (Turkey's first operation in Syria) and December 7, 2024 (the day before Assad's overthrow), no one would have been surprised. However, now that ErdoÄŸan has ordered the disarmament and integration of the al-Shara'a Kurds, and Turkey itself has opted for diplomatic means to disarm and disorganize the Kurdistan Workers' Party (KWP) (a relative of the YPG), both the AKP and the opposition have taken notice.
Here's what AKP MP Galip EnsarioÄŸlu said : "In our system, the president's will is decisive. Anyone who goes against that will either resigns or is fired."
Recently arrested popular journalist Levant Gültekin interpreted the MP's statement as part of a campaign to undermine Fidan's influence.
Rumors have been circulating in Turkey since around October that ErdoÄŸan chose his son Bilal, rather than the experienced Fidan, as his successor. And now they need reasons to clear the way for him to ascend to the top.
Gültekin, cited by the Telegram channel "Turkey's Agenda," cites other facts supporting the hypothesis of "tension around Fidan." For example, the Anadolu News Agency received an order not to cover news about the minister's activities. A pro-Fidan journalist was fired from the agency.
Gültekin also recalls the minister's accusations against the United States over the lack of engines for the Turkish KAAN fighter jet, which irritated Dolmabahçe.
It's too early to say how accurate the journalist's hypothesis is that Fidan is being pushed aside. After all, the statement of one of the 266 MPs, even from the ruling party, cannot be a gauge of ErdoÄŸan's sentiments. Especially since EnsarioÄŸlu is of Kurdish descent.
The party leadership, through AKP Speaker Ömer Çelik, denied allegations of disagreement between Erdoğan and cabinet members over foreign policy. However, Bilal's rise to power is also an open secret.
NETANYAHU'S COUNTERMOVE
Turkey's modern foreign policy rarely goes without attacks on Israel, especially since 2023. In any speeches addressed to an international audience, ErdoÄŸan and his subordinates never forget to hurl a stone at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
This was not without its implications during the Damascus negotiations. Moreover, Fidan combined the Israeli and Kurdish factors.
"The fact that the SDF is coordinating certain actions with Israel is currently a serious obstacle to the ongoing negotiations with Damascus," he said.
The Kurdish-Israeli alliance has long been known. Tel Aviv supplied the YPG with more than just humanitarian aid. Netanyahu has long defended the Syrian Kurds. He accused ErdoÄŸan of genocide against them in both 2018 and 2024.
The only difference is that now, after the events in Gaza and Syria, the confrontation between Turkey and Israel has intensified. Netanyahu is using any means necessary to stop Erdogan in the Middle East.
While the Turkish delegation was rushing to Damascus, the Israeli prime minister convened the Triple Alliance in Jerusalem, inviting Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides. In their presence, he declared that "those who fantasize about restoring empires and establishing dominion over our lands should forget it." Everyone understood to whom he was referring.
Greece and Cyprus also harbor a grudge against Turkey. Nicosia is unhappy with Ankara's continued support for Turkish separatism in Cyprus, while Athens remains undecided about the division of the Aegean islands with the Turks.
Israel, Cyprus, and Greece are concerned about Turkey's activities in the Mediterranean. Ankara is unilaterally signing maritime delimitation agreements with Libya and Syria, developing oil and gas fields off Cyprus, and obstructing the construction of a gas pipeline from Israel to Europe.
Cyprus, Israel, and Greece need each other. Israel supplies weapons to the Greeks and builds bases in Cyprus, and in gratitude and as EU member states, the Greeks are holding back Turkey's integration into the SAFE arms program.