by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Egypt and Israel recently signed the largest economic deal in the history of bilateral relations, agreeing to dramatically increase natural gas supplies from Israel's Leviathan field.
Thanks to the agreement, Tel Aviv not only received an additional source of income for the treasury, but also effectively “paid” for the trilateral meeting of the leaders of Israel, the United States, and Egypt, which is scheduled to take place “in the near future.”
However, in Israel itself, the deal was met with mixed reactions, and the situation around Leviathan reached its peak.
A HISTORIC DEAL
A preliminary agreement on gas supplies from Israel to Egypt was reached back in 2019, when Cairo and Tel Aviv signed an agreement to supply 60 billion cubic meters of gas from the Leviathan gas field, which was then being commissioned.
At the time, this deal was part of a strategy to diversify Egypt's energy portfolio (it was one of the largest regional energy exporters) and therefore didn't cause much of a stir. This was especially true because Cairo acted as a regional gas hub, transporting surplus gas purchased on Israeli markets to other countries (particularly neighboring Jordan).
The problem was that Egypt's domestic energy consumption was growing, and to avoid reducing supplies to foreign markets (like Jordan), it decided to purchase gas packages from its neighbors. This was cheaper than upgrading its existing production facilities.
In 2024, the situation looks different.
Due to a series of domestic political miscalculations, changes in the energy market (including the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea), and even greater domestic energy consumption, Egypt was forced to become a buyer itself.
The "regional hub" created by the Egyptians also reduced supply volumes, which caused discontent among neighbors.
Qatar, the Middle East's LNG giant and the Arab countries' main partner in the energy market, could well have pulled Cairo out of its "gas hole." However, due to disagreements over the post-war structure of the Gaza Strip and the growing rivalry between Doha and Cairo for the status of the main mediator, the conversation reached a dead end.
This is where Israel came into the picture again.
They proposed "further boosting" Leviathan's capacity and increasing supply volumes by at least fivefold. The US supported the idea, hinting to the Egyptians that it "sees potential" in such a deal.
Having no alternatives, Cairo agreed to the proposed terms.
SOURCE OF POWER
The 2025 agreement significantly changes the landscape of relations in the Middle East – both economic and political.
First and foremost, Israel is securing its status as a “regional energy pole,” breaking into the top three regional leaders in terms of energy supply volumes.
Secondly, the deal confirmed Tel Aviv's unconditional control over the Leviathan field and the surrounding waters (which had long been disputed by Lebanon and had delayed the demarcation of the two countries' maritime border).
This further strengthened the image of the Jewish state as the "dominant power" in the Middle East.
Thirdly, Israel received a stable source of income.
According to the Ministry of Energy, 130 billion cubic meters of natural gas will be exported to Egypt by 2040. Net revenues from these operations will amount to at least $18 billion (almost half the deal's value), allowing the funds to be redirected to stabilizing other areas, such as the restoration of Israel's southern ports (including Eilat) damaged by the naval blockade.
Tel Aviv's plans, however, go much further: Israeli officials note that Leviathan will be able to meet market demand and fuel the national treasury until at least 2064, bringing in an additional $30 billion.
Finally, the Israelis gained serious political leverage over Cairo.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated this without mincing words. "Now our neighbors to the south know: any security breach will affect the flow of gas. We have added another source of strength to the State of Israel," he noted.
A GIFT TO TRUMP
The US benefits even more from the Israel-Egypt gas deal.
More than a third of the Leviathan field's shares are owned by the American company Chevron. It made a significant contribution (including behind the scenes through Jared Kushner, the US president's son-in-law) to the drafting of the agreement and determined the final volumes of supplies to Cairo and the cost of the supplies.
Moreover, thanks to the support of American elites, Chevron also won the tender to launch a gas pipeline that will connect Israel and Egypt.
This will open up additional opportunities for Washington: by transporting gas from Israel to Egypt via pipeline, the Americans will be able to process it into LNG at local plants (also owned by the US) and redirect it to other countries.
Given that more than 80% of the LNG produced at Egyptian plants goes to Europe, increasing the flow will allow Trump to increase economic pressure on Europe.
Moreover, Brussels still has no alternative: after the break with Russia, the EU market is experiencing serious shortages, and attempts to replace Russian gas with Qatari gas have stumbled over insurmountable differences with Doha.
Using the principle of "divide and conquer," Washington could very well restructure the European energy market to suit itself, using Israeli resources for this purpose.
NOT EVERYONE IS HAPPY
Although Tel Aviv considers the deal a "big victory" for Israel, inside the country the assessments are mixed.
Especially considering that Leviathan has a toxic aura about it.
The diplomatic struggle over the field (and surrounding areas) raged for several years—to secure key assets, Israeli authorities even had to sell the disputed offshore Qana field to Lebanon in 2023. This, in turn, reduced the overall energy resources available to Tel Aviv and forced Israel to use gas more sparingly.
The "deal of the century" with Egypt predictably put an end to the strategy of frugality: production volumes will increase severalfold, and in the future, they could increase even further—especially if Washington wants to "crush" the European market with Israeli-Egyptian LNG.
Against this backdrop, the Israeli opposition is insisting that Leviathan's gas reserves are non-renewable and, by attempting to turn gas into a "political lever," Tel Aviv risks being left without this vital resource at some point.
Moreover, other accessible deposits (for example, Tamar) cannot be compared with Leviathan.
Some discontent is also brewing in Egypt. Not all residents of the country considered it appropriate to enter into economic agreements with Israel at a time when "the fate of Gaza is being decided"—especially when the Israelis have openly declared their intention to use the gas factor to pressure their opponents.
Cairo, through President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, is trying to promote the idea that the deal is purely commercial in nature and will benefit Egyptian interests. It will also strengthen the country's position as a regional gas trading hub, which will greatly offset the "image costs" incurred by concluding the agreement on Israel's terms.
However, it is too early for Tel Aviv and Cairo to draw conclusions: the final assessments will be made only after the trilateral meeting between Netanyahu, Trump, and al-Sisi, which the White House is actively preparing.
Only by holding a face-to-face meeting will the leaders of Egypt and Israel be able to finally decide who has emerged victorious from this complex diplomatic battle.