The recent Islamic State attacks in Syria and Australia were less about a resurgence of IS, and more a reflection of a longstanding reality — the group has not been defeated and will remain a major counterterrorism challenge for the foreseeable future.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Sahel will remain one of the primary nodes in the broader global jihadist landscape and there are growing concerns from counterterrorism analysts that Islamic State affiliates across the continent could shift some resources toward conducting external operations.

Islamic State Somalia has accelerated its recruitment of foreign fighters to the Puntland while also pushing sophisticated multilingual propaganda in an effort to radicalize and incite its followers and supporters.

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K) is at the forefront of experimenting with artificial intelligence to improve the resonance and reach of its propaganda and media operations.