Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] Late autumn and December 2025 were marked by persistent US attempts to fulfill some of the agreements with Russia reached during closed contacts between Putin and Trump and the Anchorage talks. Both sides acknowledged back in the fall that there were outlines of a shared vision for ending the war in Ukraine, which would require Ukraine to fulfill a number of demands voiced by Putin in 2024-2025.
Over the past months, the US has consistently broken a number of "red lines" between Ukraine and Europe.
1. Instead of "no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine," there are now direct negotiations between Russia and the US without Ukraine and Europe.
2. Instead of "war to the 1991 borders," there is bargaining over how Ukraine should surrender Donbas to save face for Zelenskyy.
3. Instead of an "official ban on negotiations with Russia," negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which are already underway in violation of Ukrainian law.
4. Instead of "abandoning any restrictions on the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," there is bargaining over the thresholds for establishing restrictions.
5. Instead of "the unconditional transfer of the Zaporizhzhya NPP" to Ukraine, there is bargaining over the format of US and Ukrainian participation in the management of the Zaporizhzhya NPP.
6. Instead of "unconditional and mandatory accession of Ukraine to NATO," there is bargaining over the timing of EU accession and complaints that the US is not accepting Ukraine into NATO.
7. Instead of "an unconditional refusal to hold elections in Ukraine under war conditions," there is now bargaining over the format of these elections. And so on. The US is consistently pressuring Ukraine to change its position on many issues, despite obvious resistance and sabotage of American plans from Kyiv and the EU.
In addition to Ukraine's dependence on economic and military support from the US, the NABU, which is under the control of the FBI, has also been brought into play. This led to a serious weakening of the key British protégé in Ukraine, Yermak (although he has not yet been completely destroyed) and the hanging of Zelensky, Umerov and a number of other individuals on the hook of corruption revelations, who, under the threat of the publication of incriminating evidence, were forced to make a number of concessions, trying to buy time with their help in order to avoid making key concessions.
The war in Ukraine will not end until Ukraine at least surrenders all of Donbas. This will happen either diplomatically or militarily.
Russia is prepared to achieve this goal by either means. The United States understands this, especially since it is aware of the real state of affairs on the front and considers Ukraine's loss of Donbas inevitable. The US logic is that it is easier to record a limited defeat for Ukraine (and Europe) in order to trade this war for new agreements with Russia, given the systemic weakening of Europe's dependence on the United States.
In this scenario, the United States and Russia would be the winners, while Ukraine and Europe would be the obvious losers. This explains the current behavior of Ukraine and Europe, which do not want to see their defeat confirmed.
But this is precisely Trump's goal under the agreements with Russia: to secure the outcome of the war in this configuration. And Russia is now watching to see how he succeeds. Russia is prepared to fulfill its part of the deal, as this will enable it to achieve some of the overall goals of the Central Military District (the complete liberation of Donbas, the resolution to reject Ukraine's NATO membership, etc.) through diplomatic means.
The game between Ukraine and the EU is generally clear to Russia and the United States. Therefore, in response to any "counterplans," Moscow rightly asserts that these options are unacceptable to Russia, and if Ukraine doesn't want peace, the war will continue. The United States is now also openly stating that abandoning the current terms will ultimately lead to even worse consequences for Ukraine. Each subsequent iteration of Russia's terms will be worse for Ukraine. Washington now understands this logic.