by Igor Ivanenko
[REGNUM] The National Liberal Party of Romania (NLP), which ranks only third in the popularity rankings of political forces, is strengthening its control over the political system of the Danube-Carpathian republic.
This conclusion can be drawn from the results of the Bucharest mayoral elections held on December 7.
BATTLE OF BUCHAREST
Ciprian Ciucu, nominated by the NLP, won with 36% of the votes, as the mayoral elections are held under the relative majority electoral system.
Thus, representatives of this party today control the republic's largest administrative bodies. After all, the head of the Romanian government is the leader of the National Liberals, Ilie Bolojan.
Thus, the NLP, which is an important part of the Romanian establishment, was able to quite successfully fight off the rebellion of sovereigntists led by Calin Georgescu and the onslaught of radical Euro-optimists in the person of the current President of Romania, Nicusor Dan.
The latter, incidentally, led Bucharest before being elected to the highest government office and intended to hand over the capital to his fellow party member from the Save Romania Union (USR), Cătălin Drulă. However, he only finished fourth in the voting (13.9% of the vote).
The president tried to "ignite" his well-known capital city voters with calls to vote "for Romania in the West" and "against the real estate mafia." But it didn't work. After all, the pro-presidential USR is in the government coalition with the very same National Liberals and Social Democrats whom Dan indirectly accuses of corruption and insufficiently consistent Euro-Atlanticism.
The pro-presidential mayoral candidate also faced a relatively low voter turnout. It fell short of 33%, compared to over 39% of voters in the previous elections, which secured Dan's victory.
Young people, who firmly believe in the ideas of European integration, did not have a decisive say in the elections for the capital's mayor this time.
Few predicted that the sovereigntist Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR) would take second place. After all, Bucharest, like all major cities, is a stronghold of liberal sentiment.
Eurosceptic journalist Anca Alexandrescu secured the support of nearly 22% of voters. This result in the capital indirectly confirms opinion polls showing that AUR is the most popular party among Romanians. After all, voters in the more conservative and depressed historical regions of Wallachia and Western Moldova are far more Eurosceptic than those in the capital.
It is also significant that the Social Democrats, who governed Bucharest until 2020, took only third place in the final protocol: the PSD candidate, Daniel Baluță, received 20.5% of the votes.
THE COALITION IS DRAGGING US TO THE BOTTOM
It is the Romanian Social Democrats who stand to lose the most from being part of a pro-European coalition with the PNL and USR. Until recently, the party was associated with a pragmatic foreign policy and a desire to navigate between geopolitical centers of power, a trait for which the first and last president of socialist Romania was once renowned.
However, careful selection within the ranks of modern Romanian socialists, carried out in part by European law enforcement agencies, led to the victory of the liberal wing in the PSD.
The current leader of the PSD, Sorin Grindeanu, despite harsh criticism, continues to maintain an alliance with the liberal parties in parliament. This is largely due to mercenary considerations.
Socialist ministers occupy key positions in Bolojan's government, and Grindyan himself has been promised the post of prime minister under the coalition agreement during the rotation of the prime minister, which is scheduled for 2027.
Meanwhile, the SDP is forced to take responsibility for the current government's extremely unpopular policy of cutting public spending to please the European bureaucracy.
It would seem that Romania's political system has finally stabilized after the turbulent events of a year ago, when the results of the first round of the presidential election were sensationally annulled on December 6, 2024. The sovereigntist movement, while still popular, is divided and is not yet able to dictate its will to the political class.
However, the current ruling liberal-socialist coalition is not particularly strong. Bolojan's government is struggling to push through pension reform, which is essential for radical cuts in social spending. The EU insists on this reform as a condition for maintaining the country's funding from European funds.
Resistance to the reform is so strong that on December 4, the prime minister was forced to link its implementation to a vote of confidence in his cabinet in parliament. But a day later, he faced a counter-vote of no confidence, which had already been supported by 118 members of the lower house and senators. There are 329 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 136 in the Senate.
However, persistent rumors are circulating in Bucharest that some members of the ruling coalition are also prepared to support the no-confidence vote. The showdown will come on December 15, when the vote is expected.
WASHINGTON'S GAME
Another obstacle to the current Romanian government fulfilling its obligations to Brussels is the position of the Constitutional Court. It is inclined to consider the significant tax increase a step contrary to the Constitution. A hearing on this issue is scheduled for December 10.
Thus, the balance of power at the Romanian top can be characterized as a balance between supporters and opponents of the highly unpopular fiscal policy measures imposed by Brussels. Moreover, the number of opponents is constantly growing.
The liberal leadership of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) will likely face considerable criticism from fellow party members for the party's disappointing results in the Bucharest elections. The Constitutional Court, which is creating problems for Bolojan's cabinet, is largely composed of nominees from this same pro-government party.
As has often happened in Romanian history, the balance can be sharply upset by external forces. Today, the Donald Trump administration could very well become such a troublemaker among the Romanian elite. People close to the American president have repeatedly openly acknowledged their sympathies for Romanian sovereigntists.
The latest version of the US National Security Strategy, signed on December 5, officially recognizes the current EU as an existential threat to European civilization. Therefore, removing Bucharest from Brussels' dominance clearly serves Washington's interests.
And the Americans have a wide range of possible actions. The recent events surrounding the destruction of a Ukrainian naval drone by the Romanian Navy near the port of Constanta can be viewed in this context.
The news of this caused genuine delight in the Romanian-speaking segment of the Internet and reasonable questions as to why similar actions had not been carried out before.
Meanwhile, the official statement from the Ministry of Defense emphasized that the destruction of the Ukrainian drone was carried out as part of a program to monitor the Black Sea coast in cooperation with other NATO countries.
That is, Ukrainian-made objects posing a danger to shipping began to be destroyed after receiving consent from the North Atlantic command.
Those behind this decision understand well that the fervent "anti-Ukrainian" enthusiasm will inevitably result in demands that political parties stop listening to the European Commission in its support of official Kyiv.
Finally, the International Monetary Fund's halt in lending to neighboring Moldova in November demonstrates that the Americans wield powerful leverage over Bucharest policymakers. The cessation of cash flows from the American-controlled IMF means a sharp increase in the cost of external borrowing for debtor countries, as well as from other international financial institutions.
For Romania, such a development would mean a real financial catastrophe, since the country's enormous public debt is financed largely through new loans.
Thus, the US government has, in Trump's words, "strong cards" in Romania. And it could very well use them in the escalating standoff with the European bureaucracy.