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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- |
| Southern Oscillation Index Plunge Triggers "Big Winter Storm Signal," Meteorologist Warns |
| 2025-12-07 |
| [ZeroHedge] Folks across the Mid-Atlantic, especially in the Washington, DC-Baltimore metro area, woke up to a rare December winter scene: a few inches of fresh snow on the ground. With a solid cold pattern locked in through the middle of the month, this early-season snow is something the region hasn't seen this early in the cold season in many years. With below-normal temperatures forecast across the Mid-Atlantic through at least mid-month - and potentially extending into the third week according to models, meteorologist Mark Margavage wrote on X that alarm bells are going off that signal a potential winter storm threat for the region could be a few weeks away. Margavage pointed to a sudden plunge in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which measures the sea-level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. Such a drop signals a shift from La Niña–like conditions (positive SOI values) toward neutral or even El Niño conditions (negative SOI values). This transition weakens trade winds across the equatorial Pacific, warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, and disrupts the Walker circulation, leading to widespread global weather anomalies. One such anomaly that may occur at a 2 to 3 week lag is the increased risk of major winter storms or polar vortex disruptions in the Eastern U.S. Margavage explained more: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a key indicator of the strength and phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Sustained strongly positive SOI values (typically 30-day average > +7 or +8) are associated with La Niña conditions, and sustained strongly negative values with El Niño. |
| Posted by:Skidmark |
| #1 |
| Posted by: Lord Garth 2025-12-07 09:16 |