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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Lebanon, Israel hold first direct talks in decades
2025-12-04
[X]

A year on, Lebanon ceasefire looks 'shakier than ever'

[AnNahar] Key points:
  • 10,000 Israeli land and air “violations”, per UNIFIL, most recently including killing Hezbollah's top military commander, Haytham Tabatabai, in Beirut’s Dahieh suburb, and a deadly attack on the Ain al Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp.

  • Original agreement: Lebanon would remove all nonstate military forces and assets, starting in the south, between the Litani River and the border with Israel. The Lebanese army and other state security branches would remain the sole armed forces in the country.

    In exchange, Israel was meant to gradually withdraw from the areas it occupied in southern Lebanon within 60 days. The agreement also stipulated that the United States would broker indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to achieve an internationally recognized delineation of their land border.

  • Hezbollah refuses to disarm, Leb army not strong enough to force the issue even if some military elements side with Hezbollah.

  • Iran somehow sent $1 billion to Hezbollah since ceasefire, per US.

  • Conclusion: peace unlikely
    It’ll be increasingly likely once the IDF has killed enough Hezbollah turbans and destroyed enough Hezbollah stuff, and ditto for Iran. Emptying their banks accounts will be useful as well, which is olds, not news.

    • Posted by:trailing wife

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