by Alexander Melnik
[REGNUM] The current President of Guinea-Bissau, Oumarou Sisoko Embalo, who had already declared his victory in the elections, was arrested by the military.
On November 26, they seized the presidential palace. A military coup took place in the country.
INCONCLUSIVE ELECTIONS
The now former president of this African country is remembered for dissolving parliament in 2023, when he faced an opposition majority in the context of an unofficial transition from a parliamentary to a presidential form of government.
The political situation in the country was further complicated by growing disagreements over when Embaló's presidential mandate should expire. The opposition insisted his five-year term ended on February 27, 2025, while the Supreme Court, which he apparently manipulated, announced that it had been extended until September 4.
These maneuvers created an atmosphere of constitutional crisis that was bound to explode. And that's exactly what happened.
The rebels staged their protests just before the announcement of the presidential election results, scheduled for November 27. President Embalo declared himself the winner of the first round of voting on November 23 with 65% of the vote. His opponent, Fernando Dias da Costa, did the same.
The elections themselves, as usual, were marred by numerous scandals. Embalo's main opponent, Domingos Simões Pereira, leader of the opposition party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), was barred from running on the pretext of submitting his documents late.
He was forced to back a dark horse, Dias da Costa, who led one of the factions of the Social Renewal Party and ran as an independent candidate.
REBELLION OR "MUTINY"?
The instigators of the coup were high-ranking officers of the armed forces, led by Brigadier General Denis N'Kanya, who headed the presidential military office before the current events.
In a nationally televised address, the general said the State Intelligence Service had uncovered a "destabilization plan involving politicians, a drug lord, and foreigners."
According to him, the military command took drastic measures to restore security and order, closing the borders and suspending the election process. A military headquarters has been established to "ensure national security" and "restore order."
It's worth noting that this is typical rhetoric of military putschists—they always justify their actions by citing the need to save the nation from inevitable chaos. However, behind the facade of good deeds lies a cold calculation. Senior military officials were dissatisfied with Embalo's policies and decided to seize power.
Along with the leader of Guinea-Bissau, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Biage Na Ntana, Deputy Chief of Staff Mamadou Touré, and Interior Minister Boche Cande were arrested. Politicians weren't forgotten either. Fernando Dias da Costa and PAIGC leader Domingo Simões Pereira were arrested and taken to the Bissau Air Force Base.
Everything was executed perfectly. Army units quickly occupied key locations in the capital, including the electoral commission building; airports and seaports were closed.
Embalo's actions added further flavor to the coup : he decided to call several international media outlets and personally announce his overthrow. Specifically, during a conversation with a France24 correspondent, he stated that he couldn't say much, or they would confiscate his phone. But was that really the case?
How many deposed politicians have access to a telephone, the Internet, and communication with the world media?
In addition, for some reason, the president named the Chief of Staff of the Ground Forces, General Ort Inte Nan Than, who was his confidant, as the instigator of the coup.
Fuel is being added to the fire by statements from his main opponent, Pereira, who previously warned that the head of state, in the event of an unfavorable election outcome, could "simulate a coup d'état" and, with the support of a loyal part of the military, regain power.
Opposition forces believe that Embalo may be released after some time, while his political opponents will remain in custody.
In February 2020, it was the military that played a decisive role in his rise to power.
BENEFICIARIES OF THE COUP
Oumaru Sisoku Embalo's foreign policy did not please Western countries, which were desperately fighting to maintain influence in West Africa: the country's authorities were increasingly oriented toward Russia and China.
Embalo has visited Russia several times and met with Vladimir Putin. Our countries signed a memorandum establishing a consultation mechanism on economic, trade, and investment cooperation. It's likely that some of these agreements will now have to be revised.
In any case, if Guinea-Bissau faces economic difficulties or tries to resist Western pressure, the new leadership may again turn to Moscow, which has already expressed interest in developing ports and transport infrastructure, as well as exploring bauxite deposits.
China, for its part, is in a unique position. Although Beijing has officially expressed concern for the safety of its citizens in the country, it understands that a military regime can be an even more reliable partner. China has invested significantly in Guinea-Bissau's infrastructure and, more importantly, has deep interests in mineral extraction.
Embalo has already visited China, where he signed a memorandum establishing a strategic partnership. China Aluminum Corporation received the right to prospect and develop bauxite in the Boe region, where 113 million tons of ore reserves—the primary material for aluminum production—have been discovered.
The contract is strategically important as China seeks alternative sources of bauxite to reduce its dependence on suppliers.
A military regime seeking to legitimize its power and ensure economic stability will be interested in continuing to work with Chinese investors, which produces tangible results—new jobs, budget revenues, and infrastructure development.
Unlike Western investments, Chinese investments are not subject to political strings. Therefore, Beijing could benefit from the coup by strengthening its economic presence in the region.
At the same time, traditional Western leaders in West Africa, France and Portugal, are given the opportunity to bring Guinea-Bissau into their sphere of influence.
Portugal, the country's former capital, immediately responded to the coup, calling on all parties to avoid violence and restore constitutional order. However, the true goal of the Europeans is to ensure that the new authorities will serve Western interests and not move toward Moscow and Beijing.
The United States is also interested in pulling Guinea-Bissau into the Western camp. The African state is located in the Gulf of Guinea, a region crucial for control of sea routes and resources. Washington thus intends to limit Russian and Chinese influence in the region.
Let's not forget about regional players.
Thus, the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, who formed the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS),
| …an unfortunate acronym, like a Roman general named Biggus Dikkus…... |
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a competitor to the ACS, is once again at risk of being sidelined. For several years now, this pro-Western organization has been losing credibility and demonstrating an inability to effectively enforce sanctions.
Following coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, it imposed sanctions that were either rescinded or ignored by the new authorities in those countries. Guinea-Bissau may follow suit.
Thus, the rebellion in Bissau continues a series of military coups in West Africa, and the state itself becomes a new battleground between the world's leading powers.
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