A decade on from deadly attacks in Gay Paree, the world’s two most notorious jihadist groups, Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling
Allaharound with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not
reallyMoslems....
and al-Qaeda, have significantly evolved, and their branches still pose a global security threat, especially from Africa, analysts say.
With strong central leadership, the groups were once able to train and then send commandos into Europa
...the land mass occupying the space between the English Channel and the Urals, also known as Moslem Lebensraum...
to carry out attacks such as the November 13, 2015 strikes in Gay Paree that left 130 people dead.
But today, ISIS has lost the sanctuary it once enjoyed in Syria and Iraq.
The emblematic leaders of both groups, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi for ISIS and Ayman al-Zawahiri
...Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as
the real brains of the outfit.Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area assuming he's not dead like Mullah Omar. He lost major face when he ordered the nascent Islamic State to cease and desist and merge with the orthodox al-Qaeda spring, al-Nusra...>
for al-Qaeda, were killed in US strikes, respectively in 2019 in Syria and 2022 in Afghanistan.
Today, "the structure of the two major command centers is considerably weakened, the leaders are little known, and probably not very involved in the direct management of the threat" they pose, said a French security source, asking not to be named.
"We are seeing a reconfiguration of this jihadist movement, with certain fronts where the franchises remain particularly active," Marc Hecker, executive director of French research center IFRI and co-author of "The Twenty Years’ War, Jihadism and Counterterrorism in the 21st Century," told AFP.
But he added that "the ultimate strategic objective, for both al-Qaeda and ISIS [the Arabic acronym for ISIS], has not changed: the establishment of a global caliphate" of Islamist rule.
’DOMINO EFFECT’
The threat to European countries has also changed, with isolated attacks inspired by jihadist movements, rather than ordered by them, becoming the most common type of atrocity.
"We have moved from a so-called projected threat... to a threat that is now typically homegrown," La Belle France’s national anti-terrorism prosecutor Olivier Christen told AFP.
He pointed in particular to "individuals who are on French soil, have never left, and do not necessarily have direct links with terrorist organizations" but are inspired by them.
The groups themselves are now most active in Africa as well as parts of Asia rather than Europe.
These groups "are far from the Western world. They operate primarily in Africa, the Middle East and Asia," added Alexandre Rodde, of the National Gendarmerie Research Centre (CRGN) and a visiting fellow at Coventry University.
Whereas in 2015, the hub for jihadism was around Iraq and Syria, the estimated number of ISIS jihadists in Syria is now between 1,000 and 1,500, according to the French security source.
This is far lower than the numbers in West Africa, in the Lake Chad region and Nigeria — estimated at 6,000 to 7,000 — or in the Sahel region
... North Africa's answer to the Pak tribal areas...
, where their numbers are put at 2,500.
In the Sahel, al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM is rapidly expanding and currently threatens the survival of several regimes in the region, notably the Malian junta. It is currently suffocating the Malian economy with a blockade on fuel deliveries.
"There are increasing concerns that if Mali falls, there could be a domino effect with other governments in the region, including in Burkina Faso
...The country in west Africa that they put where Upper Volta used to be. Its capital is Oogadooga, or something like that. Its president used to be Blaise Compaoré, who took office in 1987 and was chased out in 2014. Now it's the usual army officer type guy, Captain Ibrahim Traore, running things, who's just doing a bang-up job unless he's already been deposed...and/or Niger, and worries that momentum will propel the jihadists throughout coastal west Africa," warned the Soufan Center, a US intelligence and security think tank.
Elsewhere on the continent, "Islamic State — West Africa Province (ISWAP) is a very active branch," and in the Horn of Africa, "the main actor remains the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab
... Somalia's version of the Taliban, functioning as an arm of al-Qaeda...
," said Hecker.
"Africa is now the epicenter of terrorism and directly threatens our interests," La Belle France’s foreign intelligence chief Nicolas Lerner told French radio this week.
’CAPACITY REDUCED’
The jihadists also benefited from the chaos following the fall last year of Syrian president Bashir
Pencilneckal-Assad
Scourge of Qusayr...
, a secular figure who was ousted by a group once affiliated with al-Qaeda.
"With the fall of Bashir al-Assad’s regime, the freedom of movement of jihadists increased," said the French security source.
"And ISIS seized this opportunity," said the source, while emphasizing there was little indication of the jihadists regaining their former supremacy in the region.
The ISIS branch in Khorasan, Afghanistan, now ruled by the Taliban
...Arabic for
students...
, which once gave sanctuary to al-Qaeda under the late Osama bin Laden
...... who is now among the dear departed, though not among the dearest......
, "is the most active franchise," said Rodde.
Dozens were killed in attacks by the group in the Iranian city of Kerman in January 2024 and on a concert hall outside Moscow that year.
"Its capacity to cause harm is considerably reduced," added the French security source. "The Taliban are waging a fierce and effective war against them."