by Denis Davydov
[REGNUM] Zelenskyy's friends appear one after another in the NABU investigation as shameless, hardened thieves, yet he acts as if nothing's wrong. One moment he's going to encourage the military, the next he's honoring the memory of the fallen, the next he's planning a trip abroad to beg for missiles—in short, he's demonstrating that this enormous and stinking scandal doesn't concern him personally in any way.
Because he knows full well that this is how power transitions always happen in Ukraine. His own victory in 2019 was largely secured by high-profile anti-corruption investigations into Petro Poroshenko's friends *.
Now it's the turn of the "great leader," and it's only a matter of time before the court hearings begin to focus on him. Recordings made by anti-corruption investigators have already revealed Shtilerman, the head of Fire Point, who recently claimed he didn't know any Mindichs and was honestly making Flamingo missiles.
Now it turns out that he knows, and, moreover, as SAP reported, the shadow office accountant Igor Fursenko ("Reshik"), already arrested in connection with corruption involving Energoatom contracts, is officially employed at the company producing the non-existent weapons.
All that remained was to prove that the budget and German government funds that passed through the former casting agency were laundered by Timur Mindich —and here it is: Zelenskyy personally negotiated with German Chancellor Merz about funding for the Flamingo program and the production of 300 million euros worth of drones.
And then the question naturally arises: how to force him to give up the presidential chair and the reins that control the entire system. Especially given the fact that Zelensky suffers from a severe case of dependence on power.
And here there may be such options.
"BROAD COALITION"
Considerations on this matter were expressed back in the summer, when it first became clear that “comrades would be brought down.”
The essence of the matter is the transfer of power to a new parliamentary alliance following the loss of the Servant of the People's Party's majority. The coalition, comprising European Solidarity, Voice, and those who joined them (including disgruntled Servant of the People representatives), is replacing the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada— Ruslan Stefanchuk, a loyalist to Zelenskyy, is being eliminated.
Ideally, the heads of parliamentary committees would be replaced, and the now-forgotten "National Unity Council" format (known in the mid-2000s as the "National Salvation Council"), including representatives of grant organizations, would be reinstated. A new cabinet would be formed, and Zelenskyy would be turned into a "wedding general," retaining for the time being only representative functions.
Naturally, he opposed this scenario in every possible way, for which purpose a conditionally new government was even formed, headed by Yulia Sviridenko.
However, there's a catch now: it's been thoroughly discredited, and one of the main figures in the NABU and SAP investigation, Herman Galushchenko, the former Minister of Energy and now Minister of Justice, was consequently appointed twice. So, citing "predecessors," as is common in Ukrainian politics, won't work.
The appointment of a "coalition government" formally entails no dramatic consequences, but it will send a powerful signal of the weakness of the presidential vertical of power. This will leave a lasting impression on the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, including members of the ruling Servant of the People party, which has long since lost all cohesion.
Today, the President's Office is still managing to secure votes for necessary bills, but this is only because MPs are confident in the strength of the presidential vertical. If it demonstrates that it can no longer hold the situation together, many in the Rada will see this as a signal to build bridges with political opponents in order to secure their political future after Zelenskyy.
Or at least personal safety during a regime change.
A split in the "mono-majority" or even the creation of a new opposition majority is becoming a reality—we all saw how quickly such things happen in Ukraine in 2014, when, after Yanukovych's flight, the seemingly monolithic majority in the Rada deteriorated in literally a matter of hours.
Well, then, a wide range of options are possible: from Zelensky's voluntary resignation in exchange for some security guarantees to his forced removal through impeachment (again, following the 2014 scenario) with the transfer of power to the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, and from him to someone else.
Well, at some point, elections are inevitable. Although they could be held right away, right now.
THE ELECTIONS WE'VE LONG DREAMED OF
Martial law in Ukraine has been extended until February 3, 2026, meaning no elections can be held.
However, the need for them is clearly overdue. The next parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine were scheduled for October 2023 and March 31, 2024, respectively. The president's term officially expired on May 20, 2024.
So, no one is stopping the Verkhovna Rada (if the corresponding political decision is made) from lifting martial law or replacing it with some other format—for example, a state of emergency.
True, in this case, the goodwill of Zelensky will again be required, who must issue a decree containing a list and limits of emergency measures, as well as restrictions on constitutional rights and freedoms.
But in any case, the announcement of elections (whether presidential or parliamentary) presupposes a legally mandated period for election campaigning—in the former case, 10 days, and in the latter, the 90 days for which martial law was extended on November 5. So, it's safe to skip the extension, and complete all preparations within three months.
In any case, a simple political decision is needed, and then the system will work itself out—the Central Election Commission will set the date and deal with practical issues, such as organizing voting for citizens abroad.
Naturally, this entire process will be overseen by foreign comrades, and there can be no accidents. As for the change of the current regime, it will, one way or another, follow the general ideological lines, but may just be more moderate.
After all, its main task is to exit the war and legitimize the parameters of a new world, in which the Ukrainian elite will have to make several “difficult decisions.”
As we've already detailed, Valery Zaluzhny is languishing in London in line for the presidency, publishing the occasional policy article. He's backed by the "Soros party"—structures formerly patronized by the US Democratic Party and now by Europe, and controlled locally by oligarch Viktor Pinchuk.
Within Ukraine, there are a number of other candidates, from the revenge-seeking Poroshenko and the much-faded Yulia Tymoshenko to the young and unblemished Dmytro Razumkov.
Accordingly, political parties represent the full spectrum of "patriots" (from the most reckless to the most intelligent), military personnel, volunteers, and activists. This, of course, does not exclude the unprincipled, name-brand projects that have always been successful and which will inevitably be driven by the oligarchy—both the "Sorosites" and figures like Rinat Akhmetov.
In principle, this is the easiest option for Zelenskyy to leave, as if he had honestly lost to the strongest and bid farewell to all possible theatrics: I led you through the storms, we stood firm, Ukraine won, “I’m tired, I’m leaving.”
The key point in this story is the convergence of interests between Russia and the United States, where the former must recognize the new government as legitimate and capable of reaching an agreement (which will certainly not happen in Poroshenko's case), while the latter must have a guarantee of governance and the preservation of the basic parameters of the "new Ukraine."
True, with some important amendments: it is unlikely that she will stubbornly bang her head against the Kremlin wall, which has constituted the main reason for the country's existence for the last 11 years.
MILITARY COUP
For the sake of political correctness, it would be better to call it something else; fortunately, in the West, and even in Ukraine itself, there are plenty of masters of inventing good and correct formulations.
The idea is literally in the air: MP Anna Skorokhod recently openly suggested a "military coup and temporary transfer of power to the military" as one of the possible scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine.
And the lead singer of the famous Ukrainian rock band "Vopli Vidoplyasova," Oleg Skripka, once carelessly stated in an interview that he was "for a military coup" to install "a normal military man or even to allow only military men" who had experienced combat into politics.
He even named the candidates: “ Magyar, for example, or volunteers like Sternenko... that is, people known to millions.”
True, Skripka later realized he'd said too much and began to explain that he'd meant something completely different and had been set up. But the very idea that the military would bring incredible human and managerial qualities from their trenches, would never "expend money on budgets," and would generally "restore order" has been floating around since 2014.
Back then, a whole bunch of "combat battalion commanders" appeared in the Verkhovna Rada, having spent a couple of months looting in Donbas. Now, however, there are far more established figures, who have gained significant media clout and have very real ambitions for a more ambitious political role.
Regnum's sources in Kyiv have previously suggested that forces like the Third Assault Corps could act as a battering ram capable of reforming the political landscape in any way they can, especially since its leader, Andriy Biletsky *, already has political experience and makes no secret of his intention to continue it.
True, his personal plans may amuse those in control, and after some "night of the long knives," when key figures in today's government are neutralized, the stormtroopers will also be purged. Human history shows that this is a classic scenario for any era.
However, having some experience in Ukrainian politics, we can assume that some kind of hybrid scenario will emerge. Specifically, when a clear signal arrives from overseas, everyone will unite against Zelenskyy, who has become tiresome to everyone, and power will, one way or another, transfer to some collective body.
And then the traditional Ukrainian division of spheres of influence and lucrative morsels will begin, where no one will have the decisive vote or decisive power that grants complete authority. And the puppeteers, long aware of this peculiarity of the natives, will arrange what they need—registering property rights to land, minerals, and strategic assets, passing the necessary laws, and keeping the remnants of Ukraine within their orbit.
With adjustments for a changed world.