Comments

You have commented 375 times on Rantburg.

Your Name

Your e-mail (optional)

Website (optional)

	My Original Nic Pic-a-Nic Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Foto

Submit your comments on this article

Africa Subsaharan

Jihad on Lake Chad: Why Trump is threatening to invade Nigeria

2025-11-13

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Alexander Melnik

[REGNUM] The situation in Africa's most populous country, Nigeria, is rapidly deteriorating. The country is descending into chaos: the conflict between the country's largest terrorist groups, Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa (ISIS-WA), has intensified.

Attacks on the country's Christian population continue, which, in turn, is causing discontent in Washington and threats of military intervention.

ALL AGAINST ALL
The Lake Chad region, where the borders of Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Chad meet, has become the epicenter of a fierce confrontation between two jihadist groups, Boko Haram and ISIS-WAP.

This conflict, which began in 2015 with an ideological split, has evolved into a brutal war for territory, resources and influence.

Ten years ago, the then-leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, pledged allegiance to the head of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and joined the group. However, in 2016, he was removed from leadership, and Abu Musab al-Barnawi, the son of Boko Haram founder Mohammed Yusuf, was appointed as the new leader.

Shekau refused to recognize the change of power, returned the organization to its former name, Boko Haram, and left ISIS-WA.

The reasons for the split lie in ideological differences between the groups, primarily regarding their attitudes toward the Muslim population. For example, Boko Haram leaders adhere to an extremely radical takfiri ideology, considering all Muslims who do not join the jihad to be apostates, which justifies their killings.

In turn, ISIS-ZA promises not to attack mosques and markets in northern Nigeria in order to increase the loyalty of the local population.

An important difference.

The active phase of the conflict between the groups began in December 2022, when ISIS fighters attacked enemy camps, killing about 56 Islamists.

Over the next two years, terrorists fought each other in the Lake Chad region, until Boko Haram pushed its opponents south into Nigeria in 2024. Already that year, the group, having gained strength, began carrying out punitive operations against civilians suspected of sympathizing with its rivals.

In May, approximately 100 people were killed in the villages of Mallam Karamti and Kwatatandashi. And in late October and early November, Boko Haram militants successfully attacked ISIS positions on Tumbun Gini Island in the Lake Chad region, killing 50 ISIS supporters and seizing a large quantity of small arms and explosives.

Boko Haram militants are thus intensifying their attacks on rival jihadists to gain control of strategically important fishing grounds, particularly the islands of Lake Chad, and trade routes that provide access to weapons and supplies.

GENOCIDE OF CHRISTIANS
According to various Christian organizations and human rights groups, at least 7,087 Christians were killed in Nigeria between January and August 2025—an average of 32 per day. Another 7,899 Christians were abducted during the same period.

Meanwhile, according to Amnesty International, at least 6,896 people, including a significant number of Christians, were killed in Benue State as a result of conflict between January 2024 and May 2025. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that more than 500,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) live in the state.

The most high-profile case of Christian killings in Nigeria this year was the Sankere massacre, when gunmen killed more than 72 people in villages in Guma County, Benue State, most of whom were members of Christian communities.

One of the bloodiest massacres occurred in the village of Elewata in the Duma district of the same state on June 13–14. According to the Catholic diocese, between 100 and 280 people were killed, mostly internally displaced persons who had found refuge at the local Catholic mission.

If we look at the statistics since 2009, about 125 thousand Christians have died at the hands of Islamists, 19 thousand churches have been destroyed, and 1,100 Christian communities have been forced to leave their land.

The second main source of violence is the conflict between Muslim Fulani herders and Christian farming communities in central Nigeria. However, in this case, the primary motive for the persecution of Christians is not religion, but rather the struggle for access to water and pasture.

Why not both, for the greater pleasure of the attackers?

ANOTHER SMALL VICTORIOUS WAR
In early November, US President Donald Trump accused Nigeria's leadership of failing to protect its Christian population from mass killings. He said that if the African government continued to allow the killing of Christians, Washington would immediately deploy its national armed forces to eliminate the Islamists.
Because he can't do that here?
The president's impulse was immediately supported by Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth: "Either the Nigerian government will protect Christians, or we will destroy the Islamic terrorists responsible for these atrocities."

The plight of Christians in Nigeria has been a major issue for American conservatives for years, with some of Trump's close allies, including Senator Ted Cruz, advocating for intervention.

But what goals does the American president really have in threatening Nigeria with military intervention?

The first goal is to consolidate the electoral base.

Evangelical Christians make up approximately 25% of the American electorate and are the primary source of votes for the conservative wing of the Republican Party. They are extremely concerned about the persecution of believers in other countries and see Trump as a defender of their fellow believers.

By taking a tough stance on Nigeria, Trump is directly appealing to this group, strengthening their loyalty ahead of the 2028 elections.

The second goal is to strengthen US influence in Africa.

Nigeria is one of the continent's largest economic centers. The country is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas, and critical minerals needed by Washington to develop green technologies.

Trump is trying to regain his lost influence on African politics, weakened in recent years by the actions of Russia, China and the UAE.

The third goal is distraction.

The threat of military intervention in Nigeria serves as an excellent distraction from the domestic problems of the United States: the economic crisis, political polarization, and other challenges facing the administration.

WAR SCENARIOS
Following Trump's statements, US military command began developing plans for possible military action. According to US media, three levels of potential intervention have been developed.

The most radical involves sending an aircraft carrier group to the Gulf of Guinea off the coast of Nigeria and using aircraft to strike targets in the north of the country.

A more cautious scenario involves using MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1 Predator attack UAVs for precision strikes against militant camps, supply convoys, and individual targets in northern Nigeria.

Finally, the most acceptable option for the Nigerian government is to increase intelligence sharing, logistical support, and joint operations between the US and Nigerian forces against both terrorist groups.

That last is a waste of time, it seems to me. It’s been done before, to no long term effect whatsoever.

However, senior Pentagon officials acknowledge that targeted American operations in Nigeria will not be able to reduce violence or undermine the terrorists' combat capabilities. Achieving these goals will require a large-scale campaign, similar to those in Iraq and Afghanistan. The White House is currently not considering such a scenario.

This presents a dire situation for Nigeria's leadership: the military and law enforcement agencies are unable to independently combat the Islamists who are carrying out punitive operations against the country's Christian population. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration is exploiting the tragedy of the Nigerian people to gain additional political points.

Posted by:badanov

#5 comments); ?>werwer

Posted by: swksvolFF 2025-11-13 15:44

#4 comments); ?>werwer

Posted by: Skidmark 2025-11-13 10:31

#3 comments); ?>werwer

Posted by: Skidmark 2025-11-13 10:29

#2 comments); ?>werwer

Posted by: Besoeker 2025-11-13 06:40

#1 comments); ?>werwer

Posted by: Zenobia Craque3311 2025-11-13 06:14

00:00