by Kirill Semenov
[REGNUM] At the beginning of November, the ceasefire in Gaza remains extremely fragile, and faith in its stability among the nearly two million residents of the besieged enclave continues to rapidly fade.
According to the Government Media Office in the Strip,
| …ie. the Hamas office of propaganda… |
| Goodness — who knew they could count that high? |
| *shrug* The UN said they have three months’ supply on hand. Heaven only knows how much more is in Hamas’s overstuffed warehouses… |
On October 18,
| …almost three weeks ago. What has that to do with today’s events? |
| Didn’t the IDF warn them not to return because it isn’t safe? Whose fault then is it, when they get caught in the crossfire? |
| Those forty-five were Hamasniks and human shields, not proper civilians. But even proper civilians are not a protected category when they deliberately put themselves in a fire zone. |
Almost simultaneously, a drone strike targeting a tent of displaced people north of Khan Younis killed a woman and two children who were seeking refuge from earlier fighting.
| Again, human shields. Mr. Semenov doth protest much too much. |
These tragic episodes were part of a bloody series of ceasefire violations that reached its horrific climax on October 28-29, when massive Israeli bombings killed around 100 people, turning hopes for peace into a new wave of mourning.
| Hamas sent bodies that were not hostages. Israel took umbrage and hit Hamas targets. |
| …all of the schools in Gaza, along with the mosques and hospitals, ae Hamas strongpoints, command and control spots, entries to the underground tunnel system, and/or weapons caches. In other words, legitimate targets… |
| Those who trust that Hamas will not again break the ceasefire and provoke an IDF military response are fools. |
JUSTIFICATION TACTICS
These attacks were accompanied by a deliberate suspension of humanitarian aid deliveries, further exacerbating the suffering of the civilian population.
The violence takes many forms, with Israeli strikes regularly targeting critical civilian infrastructure and drones carrying out targeted killings, as happened on October 30, when a Palestinian was killed near a vegetable market in Shuja'iya.
The Israeli army justifies these operations by citing the need to protect its troops from threats, particularly those emanating from the so-called "Yellow Line"—a virtual boundary dividing the territory. However, in practice, their actions result in the deaths of civilians.
| So Mr, Semenov demands that the Israelis bare their throats to the Hamas sword? Fuck that shit. |
| Precisely. |
According to an Israeli army statement, several battalion commanders of Hamas's military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, were killed in a series of operations, including strikes in late October. Among them were Abdullah al-Lidawi, commander of the Western Battalion in the Northern Gaza Brigade, and commander Hatim al-Qudra.
The Israeli command claimed that among the dead were three battalion commanders, two deputy battalion commanders and sixteen company commanders, indicating the scale and systematic nature of the operations carried out after the armistice.
Israel was able to achieve successes it had not enjoyed during the period of intense fighting by taking advantage of the fact that Hamas commanders had come out of hiding.
HUMANITARIAN BLOCKADE
The humanitarian consequences of Israel's violations are also multifaceted. Gaza authorities state that from October 10 to 31, 3,203 trucks were allowed into the Strip, representing only 24% of the 13,200 allowed under the deal.
| And Hamas raided something like 80% of them, the UN admitted afterward, so who is at fault? |
| Complain to Egypt. They refuse to take those people back, except the ones who can afford their very high fees. |
| No. They ar blocking the Turks, who brought ghr heavy equipment, because Turkey has proved itself an enemy of Israel and an overt supporter of Hamas. |
| Bith Israel and Hamas know where most of the hostqge bodies are, and that no heqvy equipment is needed to to obtain them. So why should Israel allow in tools intended for rebuilding Hamas’s war tunnel system? |
NETANYAHU'S THREATS
The political context only exacerbates the situation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has made no secret of his skepticism about the ceasefire, has publicly stated that Hamas "pockets" still exist in areas controlled by the Israeli army in Rafah and Khan Yunis, and that they will be eliminated.
Although, with American mediation, an agreement was reached on the unimpeded withdrawal of these Hamas units from behind the “yellow line”.
Netanyahu insists that the destruction of Hamas is a key principle, and Israel will not deviate from it. This creates a constant threat of a resumption of full-scale hostilities.
| Hamas is required first to turn over all hostages, whether living or dead, and second to lay down all their weapons and leave Gaza. Hamas refuses to accomplish either. |
| …Hamas insists it can omly be a ceasefire of nore more than 3-5 years duration, so the bridge is already collapsed… |
| Hamas’s choice. Just like the PLO, they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. |
It seems that the war in Gaza has not stopped, but has only changed, taking on more insidious and sophisticated forms.
| You noticed that, too? How very clever. |
Danger has lost its clear frontal contours and has become completely unpredictable: it can come from the sky in the form of a sudden drone strike, seemingly aimed at one person but killing an entire family in the neighboring house; it can lurk around a bend in the road in the form of a shell fired at a car filled with civilians; it can fall on a tent in a refugee camp or on a bread line.
| The Damoclean sword of violence is familiar to Israelis for the past generation, courtesy of the Palestinians. Why should they feel sorry for you? |
The armistice, which deprived the war of clear boundaries, made it in some ways even more inhuman, turning it into a routine of horror, where ordinary activities – a trip home, a walk through the market, children playing – became mortally risky.
This state of total unpredictability and permanent fear, in which death can overtake a person at any moment, is not just a side effect of war, but part of a calculated strategy.
While paralyzing society from within, Israel isn't limiting itself to mere periodic strikes and openly undermining the ceasefire. A parallel, equally calculated campaign is being waged, aimed at sowing social divisions in Gaza.
Its essence is to methodically erode Hamas's domestic support and pit Palestinians against each other. Various tactics are used to achieve this, including targeted funding and support for armed groups opposed to Hamas, to which Israel provides resources and carte blanche for destabilizing activities.
These groups, taking advantage of the security vacuum and general state of impunity, unleash localized wars for influence, plunder humanitarian aid, attempt to control it by turning it into an instrument of blackmail, and intimidate the population.
The ultimate goal of this multi-layered war is not just military victory, but the total disorganization of Palestinian society.
Israel appears to be seeking to create a persistent security and governance vacuum in Gaza, a chaotic situation in which any attempt to establish viable Palestinian institutions will be doomed to failure and the territory will remain fragmented and incapable of consolidation, depriving the Palestinian people not only of a present but also of a political future.
CLANS AND EXTREMISTS
In Gaza's complex pattern of armed fragmentation, where Palestinian militias and clan networks challenge Hamas's monopoly on power, groups directly supported by Israel play a particularly prominent role.
The most prominent figure among them is Yasser Abu Shabab, the leader of the so-called "Popular Forces." His group is implicated in the looting of humanitarian aid. Furthermore, among his associates are individuals whose ties to international terrorism have been reliably established.
In addition to Abu Shabab's criminal past, a former drug lord convicted of drug trafficking, his circle includes prominent supporters of the terrorist Islamic State*. Abu Shabab himself was only able to escape from prison due to Israeli strikes in late 2023.
One of the Popular Forces' commanders is 33-year-old Issam Nabahin, who previously fought for ISIS* in Sinai. He was reportedly sentenced to death for his crimes in 2023 but managed to escape from prison before his execution. Another prominent member of the group, Ghassan al-Daini, pledged allegiance to ISIS* in 2015 and was previously involved in the kidnapping of BBC News journalist Alan Johnston in 2007.
Despite this, Israel provides Abu Shabaab with comprehensive support. Its militants operate from a fortified base in the Israeli army-controlled area of Rafah, from where they freely trespass and rob humanitarian convoys entering through the Kerem Shalom crossing.
This "activity" was officially documented by the UN. According to a UN memorandum, Abu Shabaab was identified as "the main influential figure behind the widespread and organized looting" of humanitarian aid.
The memo also concludes that criminal groups "may benefit from passive, if not active, favor or protection from the Israeli military," which is a direct accusation against Israel for supporting groups engaged in robbery.
Israel, in turn, continues to accuse Hamas of stealing humanitarian aid.
Another key Israeli "partner" in Gaza is the powerful Dogmush clan, whose feud with Hamas has lasted since the 1980s. This clan has a long history of involvement with jihadist groups.
Its historical leader, Mumtaz Doghmush, founder of the Army of Islam, publicly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS)* in 2015.
Despite documented ties to one of the most radical groups in the world, Israel directly approached the clan with a proposal for cooperation. As the current head of the clan, Nizar Dogmush, confirmed, Israeli officials offered to take control of the humanitarian zone in Gaza City in exchange for logistical support, including arms and food supplies.
"The Israelis wanted us to take charge of the humanitarian zone in Gaza City, so that we could recruit as many of our family members as possible, and they would provide logistical support - weapons, food and housing," he said.
Alongside the Popular Forces and the Dogmush clan, a number of other armed groups operate in Gaza, creating a complex web of opposing forces. In the northern part of the Strip, the Popular Army's Northern Forces, led by Ashraf al-Mansi, operate. Like Abu Shabab's forces, they claim to be anti-Hamas and, according to sources, employ a similar model of interaction with the Israeli army.
Hussam al-Astal's "Counter-Terrorism Strike Force" has gained a foothold in the Khan Yunis area, openly declaring cooperation with Israel and Western countries, confirming that his fighters receive logistical assistance, water, and electricity from the Israeli army.
Furthermore, traditional clans—the Hellis, Hanidaq, Jundiya, and Abu Werda—are also playing a role in this confrontation. Some of their members have formed joint militias, such as the Shuja'iya Popular Defense Forces, which, according to Israeli media, receive logistical support and salaries from Israel through the Palestinian Authority. However, the leaders of these clans often distance themselves from the armed factions, describing them as "out of control."
Hamas, for its part, conducts large-scale military operations against gangs and identifies individuals collaborating with Israel. The movement's effectiveness becomes especially evident in situations where Israeli cover is weakened.
Figures like Yasser Abu Shabab can only operate under the direct protection of the Israeli army at their bases. Hamas staged several assassination attempts against him, and Abu Shabab was saved only by direct military intervention by the Israeli military.
Following violent clashes in the Sabra area, where Hamas deployed hundreds of fighters in the stronghold of the Dogmush clan, the movement demonstrated its ability to carry out targeted and powerful military actions and retake control of territory.
When Israeli troops retreated from certain areas, supporters of pro-Israeli clans were immediately deprived of cover, found themselves under threat of extermination, and were forced to seek reconciliation with Hamas, which quickly reasserted its control over these territories.
QUESTIONABLE STRENGTH
Thus, Israel's support for figures like Yasser Abu Shabab and clans like the Dogmush, with their historical ties to ISIS*, is a modern incarnation of the old colonial strategy of divide and rule.
The goal is to sow chaos and division among the Palestinians, making the restoration of unified governance in Gaza impossible. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly acknowledged this policy, claiming that the "activation" of Palestinian clans "saves the lives of IDF soldiers."
However, as experience shows, Hamas retains sufficient control, resources, and resolve to suppress the activities of collaborators. For now, these groups exist only thanks to direct military cover from Israel, and their real ability to challenge Hamas in the long term remains questionable.