| Submit your comments on this article |
| China-Japan-Koreas |
| The Dragon’s Gallipoli and the Hong Kong Lesson |
| 2025-11-03 |
| by John Lamberger [SmallWarsJournal] INTRODUCTION During WWI, the British Empire launched a bold amphibious assault against the weaker Ottoman Empire: the Gallipoli Campaign. Expecting swift victory, the British Mediterranean Expeditionary Force (MEF) became marooned in an eight-month grinding stalemate. Trapped by rough seas, minefields, and entrenched defenders, British forces saw their supply lines stretched and casualties mount, until they were forced to retreat into the sea. Today, the People’s Republic of China assumes a similar swift conquest over Taiwan, carrying these same operational risks. But, if adequately prepared, Taiwan can turn Chinese ambitions into a costly and unsustainable failure – the Dragon’s Gallipoli. THE HONG KONG LESSON If Gallipoli demonstrates how empires can be broken by determined defenders, then Hong Kong reveals the cost of failing to resist. Beijing’s hold over Hong Kong indicates that physical control will lead to assimilation. Taiwan must place this lesson at the center of unyielding resistance. “One Country, Two Systems” was first proposed in 1979 to reunify with a breakaway province: Taiwan. China’s leader, Deng Xiaoping, promised that the province could keep its economic, social, and government systems in exchange for reunification. Deng reused this model for Hong Kong under a 50-year treaty, which unraveled in just 22 years. In 2019, mass protests broke out in opposition to legislation that would allow the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to extradite Hong Kongers under PRC laws. To prevent a post-pandemic resurgence, President Xi enacted national security laws that supersede Hong Kong’s separate system: effectively making the PRC and Hong Kong one country under one system. Across the strait, Taiwan was a witness to Hong Kong’s suppression. The lesson: Beijing’s political control begins as soon as physical control is achieved. But for Taiwan’s ability to resist, China cannot yet sustain power over the ocean. BEIJING’S DREAMS OF EMPIRE The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) proclaims Taiwan as a Chinese province that must be reintegrated into a greater Chinese nation-state. Reunification is central to rectifying the “century of humiliation” – a period marred by internal conflict and exploitation. To avoid repeating the past, President Xi Jinping has recommitted China to national unity and technological supremacy. In addition, taking Taiwan would complete nation-building, while also diminishing US influence in Asia, seizing a semiconductor hub, and projecting power into the Indo-Pacific. To achieve this, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) must attempt the largest seaborne invasion in 80 years against one of the world’s most defensible islands. It is imperative for the CCP to succeed where the British at Gallipoli failed, establishing and sustaining a beachhead. More at the link |
| Posted by:badanov |