by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Turkey is outraged by the strengthening of the alliance between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Israel's arms sales to Greece "destroy the balance of power" and threaten the stability of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear… Oh well.Ankara is also outraged by Greece and Cyprus's blocking of its participation in the European Union's SAFE program for joint procurement and investment in defense projects.
| At the rate he is going, a stroke is in President Erdogan’s future. It could not possibly be more deserved. |
FORMATION OF AN ANTI-TURKISH COALITION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
In 2019–2020, a strong coalition against Turkey emerged in the Mediterranean region. Countries dissatisfied with Ankara's claims to gas fields around Cyprus formed an alliance, which included Cyprus itself, friendly Greece, and Israel. The alliance planned to export gas to Europe, bypassing Turkey via the EastMed pipeline, irritating Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
He made it clear that gas from the Mediterranean to the Old World could only be transported through Turkey.
| Why? |
| Despite all his swanning around, he is still not the first neo-Ottoman sultan, with all the power and influence that state contains. |
| So he does not have President Trump bewitched, bamboozled, and wrapped around his little finger? Good to know. |
Erdoğan is attempting to grant the TRNC international legitimacy. At the 2022 summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Samarkand, he secured observer status for it.
| Yes, but does anyone but Turkey regard the Organization of Turkic States? |
Thus, the many contradictions in the region led to the formation of a very diverse coalition around Cyprus, comprising Greece, Israel, Egypt, the UAE and France, opposing Erdogan’s expansionist policy in the Eastern Mediterranean.
"ZERO PROBLEMS WITH NEIGHBORS"
Much water has flowed under the bridge since then, and tensions have eased. During the final year of Erdoğan's previous term, and especially with the start of his new term, when Hakan Fidan was appointed Foreign Minister, Turkey began to return to a policy of "zero problems with neighbors."
Following the historic handshake between Erdoğan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at the World Cup in Qatar, Ankara and Cairo fully restored diplomatic relations by July 2023. Following the outbreak of the Gaza war, both sides coordinated their efforts to support the Palestinian enclave.
That same month, the Turkish president embarked on a tour of the Persian Gulf and reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE on multi-billion dollar investments in Turkey's crisis-stricken economy and the sale of Bayraktar drones.
They even managed to make peace with the more hostile Greece. In December of that year, Erdogan made a historic visit to Athens.
The easing of the Franco-Turkish standoff is particularly noteworthy. Since Trump's rise to power, Europeans have warmed up to the Turkish leadership. Macron and Erdogan no longer accuse each other of "brain death."
A similar success could have been achieved in relations with Israel, whose President Isaac Herzog visited Ankara in March 2022. However, the bloody massacre has taken the confrontation between Turkey and Israel to a whole new level.
If in 2009–2010, when Erdogan clashed with Shimon Peres at the Davos Forum, and the Israelis attacked the Freedom Flotilla (Turkish ships carrying humanitarian aid for Gaza), countries limited themselves to notes of protest and statements, now Ankara has imposed an embargo and threatened to launch a military operation against Israel.
Israeli intelligence agency Mossad now considers Turkey one of the main threats to Israel. Following the change of power in Damascus, with pro-Turkish forces clashing with Israel in the Golan Heights, and the weakening of Iran and its proxies, the specter of a neo-Ottoman threat is looming large over Israel.
A number of Israeli rabbis, journalists and experts believe that Israeli aircraft should have bombed Turkey instead of Qatar in September.
Even despite Trump's peace efforts, which culminated in the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, Turkish-Israeli hostility has not gone away. This was evidenced by Erdoğan turning his plane back over the Mediterranean Sea when he learned of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to attend a peace conference in Egypt.
NETANYAHU TAKES REVENGE IN CYPRUS
As a result, by the end of 2025, Netanyahu found himself virtually alone against Erdogan. And he decided to act.
Israel has begun actively supplying military products to Cyprus.
The EU island nation, according to Cyprus Mail, wants to accelerate its transition to Western weapons standards and abandon "outdated" Russian systems: Cyprus aims to create a joint defense architecture with NATO. Cyprus has long wanted to join NATO, but has been unable to do so precisely because of the frozen conflict. They are considering aerial surveillance, automated command and control (ACS), and cybersecurity as key areas for technological transition. Cyprus is modernizing its air bases and updating its helicopter fleet.
Israel made a significant contribution to the modernization of the Cypriot armed forces by approving the sale of Barak MX air defense systems. The Barak MX, capable of tracking and intercepting Turkish aircraft at a range of up to 35 km, could tip the balance of power in Greece's favor.
The importance of these systems is demonstrated by Turkey's harsh response, which calls the deliveries a "direct security threat." Back in September, the Daily Sabah newspaper, citing the Turkish Ministry of Defense, wrote that Cyprus's purchase of the Barak MX would undermine peace on the island.
A number of Turkish military experts view military-technical cooperation between Cyprus and Israel as part of the Netanyahu government's broader strategy.
The author of the "Blue Homeland" concept (a strategy to return Ottoman Empire influence to Turkey in the Mediterranean and Black Seas), Admiral Cihat Yayci, believes that Israel intends to surround Turkey with enemies.
Viewing the presence of Turkish drones and bases in Northern Cyprus as a security threat, Israel is projecting its power onto the island. According to Yaycı, the Israelis have purchased 25 hectares of strategic land, maintain a military presence at the Paphos base, and are gathering information against Turkey and the TRNC.
Israel also has an ideological justification for such activity.
On 1917 maps, Cyprus, like the Turkish cities of Mersin and Akkuyu, are marked as part of the "Promised Land," the admiral asserts.
| …blatant taqiyya… |
| The good admiral has a fertile imagination. |
| True. |
Athens is currently seeking $700 million in PULS multiple launch rocket systems with EXTRA long-range projectiles and Predator Hawk tactical ballistic missiles, but according to the newspaper Kathimerini, the deal has been delayed due to the situation in the Gaza Strip. If the ceasefire is extended, military-technical cooperation between Israel and Greece could intensify.
While Turkey's normalization of relations with Israel has failed,
| …because Turkey alternates outreach with abuse, and then sends yet another Gaza flotilla… |
And Athens began to harm its dangerous neighbor through diplomacy.
In particular, in 2022, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis asked US President Joe Biden not to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, after which Erdoğan declared that for him, "no one named Mitsotakis exists anymore." Greece and Cyprus, as members of the European Union, are blocking Turkey's participation in the EU's SAFE (Security Action for Europe) joint procurement and investment program for defense projects.
On October 19, Hakan Fidan lashed out at both Israel and Greece.
The Turkish minister accused Israel of supplying modern weapons to "overly aggressive" Greece, and Athens of blocking Ankara's application to participate in the SAFE program.
The Turks are using every excuse to put pressure on Greek Cyprus. Fidan, seizing the opportunity, decided to accuse Nicosia of hypocrisy in its handling of the suffering of Gazans. He claimed that the Israeli aircraft bombing Gaza originated from Cyprus, among other sources.
Recently, Ersin Tatar, President of the unrecognized TRNC, also addressed the Israeli presence. Commenting on news of agreements regarding Israel's military presence in ports and airfields in Greek Cyprus and joint maneuvers with the Cypriot army, he accused Tel Aviv of making a "dangerous mistake."
LOSS OF NORTHERN CYPRUS?
Along with Israel's strengthening alliance with the two Greek states, Türkiye recently suffered another blow. This time in Cyprus.
Following the October 19 presidential elections in the TRNC, the pro-Erdoğan incumbent leader, Tatar, lost to Tufan Erhürman by a significant margin (35.8% to 62.7%). The latter, unlike Tatar, is considered a supporter of a peaceful disengagement from the Greek Cypriots and is even close to being a supporter of the unification of the two parts of Cyprus.
Erhürman represents the Republican Turkish Party of Northern Cyprus, a sister party to the Kemalist Republican People's Party (CHP) of Turkey.
The reaction of his allies and political opponents reveals what these election results really mean for Erdogan.
Opposition CHP leader Özgür Özel noted that the Turks of Cyprus have finally chosen democracy and responded to politicians in Turkey who interfere in the internal affairs of the TRNC and use the island for their own interests.
On the other side of the aisle, Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), called on the parliament of Northern Cyprus on the day the election results were announced to urgently pass a resolution rejecting the vote results, rejecting the federalization of Cyprus, and annexing its northern part to Turkey. He considers the elections "insufficiently representative."
"The scale of the problem is a matter of honor, security, and survival. After Düzce's 81st province, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus must become the 82nd," Bahçeli remarked two days later.
The changes in Northern Cyprus's leadership are unlikely to please Erdoğan. President Erhürman's preference for a federal model for Cyprus runs counter to the Turkish leader's efforts to secure international recognition for the TRNC.
The rapprochement between the Turkish and Greek parts of Cyprus could undermine the prestige of the Turkish president, who does not even control his own “backyard”.
However, Erdogan is trying to remain calm.
Along with the opposition, he also congratulated Erhürman on his victory and promised to continue supporting the TRNC. For his part, the new president of Northern Cyprus is in no rush to show any zeal, stating that negotiations with the Greeks on Cypriot unification will resume only after consultations with the Turkish government.
***
Thus, it can be noted that the geopolitical confrontation between Israel and Turkey not only persists but is also expanding. Greece and Cyprus have become natural allies of Netanyahu.
To increase pressure on Turkey, the Israeli prime minister also needs to win Trump over. How? By accusing Hamas of violating the deal and resuming military action in Gaza with the White House's green light.
In parallel, Netanyahu will continue his offensive policy towards Syria, supporting the Druze and Kurds who are opposing al-Sharaa and Turkey.
As for Northern Cyprus, without direct leverage, Netanyahu can only hope for a rapprochement between the two parts of the island and a split between the new president of Turkish Cyprus and Ankara.
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