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In fiscal year 2025, the share of the classified part of the Advanced Research Projects Agency budget will be 22.9%, which will be the highest level since at least 2005. In absolute terms, funding for classified research has more than doubled over the past six years and by the end of fiscal year 2025 will cross the threshold of one billion dollars. As of the end of January 2025, DARPA research project managers have been in their positions for an average of 2 years, 2 months, and 9 days.
A quarter of employees began their work less than a year ago. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's share of investments needed to develop future military systems in total US government defense spending will reach 24.65%, a record high since 1998. DARPA's primary research focus will remain information and communications superiority, aimed at increasing combat power through the creation of a unified information network.
The majority of technological developments and a growing share of applied and fundamental research are devoted to this area. Science Fiction and Strategic Interests The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is a military research agency of the US Department of Defense.
Since its creation in 1958 in response to the Soviet Union's launch of Sputnik, the agency has been responsible for the timely identification of new scientific ideas and promising areas of research and development in the interests of the advanced development of the US armed forces. Hundreds of studies funded annually by DARPA are tasked with anticipating, creating, and demonstrating breakthrough technologies in military and other fields. To achieve this, DARPA doesn't simply use scientific knowledge to create new technologies; it sets radically innovative challenges and expands the fields of knowledge that will solve them. DARPA's focus on research and development based on transformative ideas is largely due to its culture of risk-taking and tolerance for failure.
DARPA-funded research is credited with making significant contributions to science and technology that have led to the development of both military and commercial technologies, including precision-guided missiles, stealth technology, the Internet, personal electronics, the GPS global positioning system, and the Siri voice assistant.
Despite the high-risk nature of its investments, DARPA funding has continued to increase over the past 29 years. It has expanded by 92.5% from $2.27 billion in fiscal year 1996 to $4.37 billion in fiscal year 2025. The average annual growth rate was 3.2%.
The most significant increases occurred between fiscal years 2000 and 2005 and between fiscal years 2016 and 2024. During these periods, DARPA funding increased by 59.3% and 53%, respectively. This increase is partly due to the effects of the low base of previous years.
Adjusted for inflation, DARPA's funding is expected to increase by 6.6% from $4.1 billion in FY 1996 to $4.37 billion in FY 2025. This would leave the agency's budget 2.5% lower than the previous year and 5% lower than the 2005 budget, when funding reached a record $4.6 billion in constant FY 2025 dollars, or $2.654 billion without inflation.
Overall, DARPA's budget for FY 2025, the current US fiscal year, is expected to be 8.79% higher than the average since FY 1996.
Of the $4.37 billion requested for 2025, 97.2% of funding, according to the budget classification adopted in the United States, will be allocated to three categories of work: basic research (forming the scientific basis for subsequent work), applied research (solving scientific and practical problems), and the development of advanced technologies (meeting specific military needs). Funding for these three categories is referred to in US Department of Defense documents as the science and technology (ST) budget. This budget is viewed as an investment in the fundamental knowledge necessary for the development of future military systems.
DARPA's share of ST funding has remained relatively stable within the overall budget, ranging from 20% to 23.7% from fiscal years 1999 to 2022. The reduction in DARPA's share to 17 percentage points, noted in fiscal year 2023, is due to an increase in science and technology funding of more than 20% compared to the previous level.
The growth of DARPA's budget in subsequent years, accompanied by a reduction in funding for the entire science and technology category, led to an increase in its share. As a result, in fiscal year 2025, the Agency's share will reach a record high since 1998: 24.65%.
Meanwhile, DARPA's share of total US government R&D spending, which in addition to the categories listed above includes the development of prototypes for production weapons and military equipment, their modernization and development planning, and R&D program support, continues to decline. This year, it will be 3.05%, while 29 years ago, the same figure was 6.45%—that is, 2.1 times higher.
Despite DARPA's declining share of R&D funding in total government spending, it would be wrong to argue that its role is diminishing.
For core and part-time work in the areas of advanced technology development, as well as fundamental and applied research, DARPA remains a critically important agency for the Pentagon. A detailed analysis of funding for science and technology categories shows that DARPA's share is increasing.
Thus, in the 2025 fiscal year, it will account for 27.5% of the applied research budget, 25% of all technological development, and 16.4% of allocated appropriations for basic research.
DARPA Expenditure Structure
In the 2025 fiscal year, basic research will account for 9.22% of DARPA funding, which is significantly higher than the 3.37% allocated in 1996, but lower than the figures for 2013-2022. Then, spending on basic research accounted for at least 12%, twice rising above 14 percentage points.
DARPA Expenditure Structure by Category
The share of applied research also fluctuates. On average, it amounted to 41%. In the 2025 fiscal year, 36.51% of the budget is allocated, which will be the lowest figure since 1997.
DARPA Applied Research
In parallel with the decrease in the share of applied research, an increase in funding for technological developments necessary to meet specific military needs is recorded. In fiscal year 2025, the budget for this category will reach 51.35%, comparable to the highest figure in the last 27 years.
The redistribution of funds within DARPA is driven by two factors. The first is the phased development of research: work begun in the area of basic research is continued within the areas of applied research, and then technological development. The second is addressing emerging needs of the armed forces. Phased technology development is being replaced by work to meet specific military requirements. For example, eight unique references to Iraq are dated in the DARPA budget proposal for fiscal year 2006: four each for applied research and technological development.
In turn, the management support budget will amount to less than 3% of funding starting in the 2024 fiscal year. In practice, it will remain at the same level—around 5%. This will lead to a slight reduction in the share of applied and fundamental research, as well as technological development.
Management Support
The “cut” in the management support budget is due to the lack of prescribed funding for programs necessary for recruiting contractors. These include Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR).
Their budget is historically published at the end of the fiscal year. Funding is obtained through the reallocation of funds within DARPA.
Funding structure for DARPA small business innovation and research support programs
By the end of 2023, funding adjusted for inflation amounted to $132.6 million, or an increase of 23.6% compared to the 2010 figure.
Over the same thirteen years, administrative expenses increased by 49.6%, reaching $116.7 million. And a record $127.6 million is requested for the 2025 fiscal year.
DARPA Management Support
Despite the continued growth in spending in each category, the 2025 fiscal year targets have still not been reached peaks in 2009-2010. At that time, they were caused by the implementation of several programs, including the cybersecurity initiative and DARPA office relocation expenses.
The Agency relocation program cost $122.8 million and was funded from FY 2009 to FY 2012. The cybersecurity initiative, completed a year later, cost $164.3 million.
In general, the amount of management support funding correlates with the budget of the entire DARPA: higher values of one indicator correspond to higher values of the other and vice versa. Meanwhile, the increasing share of the management support category in the total funding of the Advanced Research Projects Agency, which increased by almost half from FY 2003 to FY 2023 to reach 5.91%, reflects additional costs for administrative support and increased efforts to attract contractors.
Basic Research
If between FY 1996 and FY 2010, expenditures on management support and basic research While the two categories maintained parity, beginning in 2011, the gap between the two categories began to widen. It peaked in fiscal year 2021: basic research accounted for 14.47% of DARPA's spending, compared to 5.69% for management support. In absolute terms, these amounts were $575.1 million and $226.1 million, respectively.
The ratio of DARPA spending
The main driver of the growth in the share of basic research in the DARPA budget was the mathematical and computer sciences program, aimed at developing relevant algorithms. Between 2010 and 2021, funding increased by 470%, from $54.45 million to $310.45 million, and its share tripled, accounting for 60.9% of defense research expenditures.
Funding structure for the DARPA "Defense Technology" category:
In 2025, the share of mathematical and computer sciences in defense research will increase to 62%. This will occur against the backdrop of the closure of the transformative sciences program, as well as a reduction in funding for electronic sciences.
DARPA Basic Research:
Another factor in the growth in the share of basic research in the DARPA budget was the inclusion of research in the field of military medicine in fiscal year 2011.
The new program focuses on advancing basic research to solve the most important problems of the US Department of Defense.
Military Medicine Programs
For FY 2025, the following is provided:
funding for the development of battlefield-ready anesthetics suitable for use by minimally trained military personnel ($18.3 million / Modernized Field Anesthesia);
assessment of human immune memory to prolong protection against infectious diseases through improved vaccine development ($18.2 million / AIM);
prevention of bloodstream infections after injury ($18.5 million / Preventing Bloodstream Infections in Warfighters After Trauma);
increasing the resilience of service members to extreme physiological stress: combating sleep deprivation and fatigue, protecting against viruses, maintaining high teamwork capacity ($9.1 million / Physiological Overmatch)
In total, funding is planned for seven programs with a total cost of $99 million.
By 2029, the budget for research in the field of military medicine will be expanded by 28%. During the same time, defense research will receive an additional 22.3% of appropriations. Thus, by the end of the decade, DARPA's basic research expenditures could reach $500 million.
This projected increase in spending reflects the agency's plans to initiate new research. The results will provide the scientific basis for subsequent work within applied research and technological development programs in artificial intelligence, machine learning, biotechnology, and materials science. Stimulating innovation in these areas is aimed at meeting long-term U.S. national security needs.
Applied Research
For FY 2025, applied research includes work across five areas. Electronic technologies remains the most heavily funded area, with 35.9% of the budget, or $573.2 million, requested for it, starting in FY 2023. Of this amount, $484.3 million is allocated to the "supercomputing technology" initiative. Its growth has amounted to more than 70% since the inception of funding in FY 2019.
It is aimed at transitioning to a new era of electronics, in which performance improvement will occur not only through the constant miniaturization of components, but also through the use of radically new materials, designs, and microsystem architectures. Funding for 29 programs is expected within this area in FY 2025.
These include:
increasing the minimum operating temperature of transistors below -150°C (the lower temperature limit of the most advanced gallium nitride (GaN) transistors is -60°C) ($10 million / TLT);
Development of tactical clocks to maintain precise positioning, navigation, and timing in the event of damage or destruction of GPS navigation satellites with an error of several millionths of a second per week (the error of quartz or mechanical watches can be measured in seconds).
Development of microelectronics for high-temperature sensors that can operate at extreme temperatures of 800°C. The High Operating Temperature Sensors program ($22 million / HOTS).
By 2029, funding for supercomputing technology will be reduced to $407 million. In total, electronic technologies will lose approximately 9% of their funding, amounting to $522.75 million.
DARPA Applied Research
The situation is different with information and communications technology, which is allocated a quarter of applied research funding in fiscal year 2025. In absolute terms, this is $397.2 million.
Unlike electronic technologies, funding for this area will continuously increase and will amount to $514.5 million by fiscal year 2029. This growth will be driven by work in areas such as cybersecurity, as well as artificial intelligence and human-machine symbiosis. The budget for both areas will increase by 29.5%, reaching $240.5 million and $213.3 million by fiscal year 2029.
The Artificial Intelligence and Human-Machine Symbiosis area is developing artificial intelligence technologies that will enable machines to function as reliable partners for human operators. AI will be able to understand human language, collect and classify information, and intelligently (critically) respond to new and unforeseen events.
Funding structure for the DARPA Information and Communications Technology category:
According to DARPA, the technologies being developed will enable:
Military personnel can make more effective decisions in complex combat conditions;
intelligence analysts can sort through massive, incomplete, and contradictory information;
and unmanned and semi-autonomous systems can safely and reliably perform critical missions.
Ten programs are currently slated to be funded, with four scheduled to begin in fiscal year 2025.
The Making and Maintaining in AI and Human-Machine Symbiosis program alone is scheduled for this year to explore the potential of AI language processing to support abstract reasoning and begin developing methods to ensure transparent and logical communication between humans and artificial intelligence models.
Parallel to the launch of military medicine research in 2012, the Biomedical Technologies in Applied Research program was launched.
The key development goal is to enhance the combat readiness of military personnel by assessing physical and cognitive performance to develop individualized training programs, developing innovative solutions to protect service members from biological threats, and creating combat-ready technologies for injury detection, protection, and recovery, including traumatic brain injuries and spinal cord injuries. A total of ten programs are being implemented, totaling $169.2 million. Funding for biomedical technologies will increase by 29.5% by the end of the decade.
Meanwhile, the budget for the entire applied research category will increase by a much smaller 15.7% over the same period, reaching $1.846 billion. An 8.8% reduction in electronic technology research will impact overall growth.
Therefore, DARPA's primary efforts in the coming years will be focused on military medicine research to enhance the resilience of service members to extreme physiological stress during combat. Furthermore, the study and development of artificial intelligence will be intensified to ensure the reliability and effectiveness of its interaction with humans.
DARPA Technological Development
Developments aimed at solving problems related to meeting specific military needs have been conducted in six areas since 2013.
10.5% or $225.5 million will go to space programs and technologies.
The work includes:
the development of a nuclear thermal rocket engine, which provides exceptional maneuverability of spacecraft for rapid changes in orbit and position, as well as rapid response to threats ($146.3 million / DRACO);
the launch of a robotic complex into orbit for servicing and modernization of satellites in geosynchronous orbit. ($5.2 million / RSGS);
development and demonstration of air-breathing propulsion technology for flights in very low Earth orbit ($61.9 million / Otter);
study and evaluation of new technologies and concepts that can significantly improve the efficiency, effectiveness, and sustainability of space operations. Among the topics considered is the application of artificial intelligence in satellite constellation operations in low Earth orbit (LEO) to ensure interaction between space, air, sea, and land platforms in areas with limited access (A2/AD) ($12 million / Advanced Space Technology Concepts).
Compared to the period 2012-2021, a significant increase in funding is recorded for the electronic technologies area. Its share in the technological development budget will reach 11.49 percent.
DARPA Advanced Technological Developments
The majority of the appropriations are provided by the initiative to manufacture next-generation microelectronics using three-dimensional heterogeneous integrated (3DHI) manufacturing and research in the field of manufacturing of complex 3D microsystems ($203 million / NGMM).
Other work includes:
developing high-energy sources for laser weapons ($16 million / MELT);
creating secure radio frequency (RF) transmitter and receiver technology for the next generation of secure military tactical radio systems ($8.6 million / WiSPER).
12% of technology development funding will go to advanced aerospace systems.
Among the projects being implemented:
creating an unmanned aerial vehicle with the ability to carry and fire air-to-air missiles, suitable for suspension on existing and future tactical aviation platforms ($36.7 million / LongShot);
developing a technology for capturing and intercepting hypersonic missiles ($38 million / Glide Breaker);
creating a robust AI system for air combat ($41 million / AIR);
developing a new type of aircraft using active air flow control for maneuvering ($29.7 million / CRANE);
equipping commercial and military drones with a subsystem that ensures autonomous operation ($13.9 million / REMA).
A total of 11 programs are funded, totaling $269.7 million.
By fiscal year 2029, growth in areas such as space programs and technologies, as well as advanced aerospace systems, will amount to 29.5%. At the same time, the electronics technology budget will be reduced by 6.8%, which is likely due to a reduction in funding for the next-generation microelectronics manufacturing (NGMM) program. Its completion is scheduled for 2029.
Number of unique mentions of artificial intelligence
The remaining three areas of technological development, including navigation, control, and communication systems, network-centric warfare technologies, and sensor technologies, account for 66.55% or $1.491 billion. Of this amount, only $490 million is declassified. It is distributed among work on 23 programs.
Among them are:
increasing situational awareness in near-Earth space by processing large volumes of high-speed data from distributed satellite constellations ($22.3 million / Space-WATCH);
developing machine strategies for strategic planning that can compete with people in planning a real war ($12 million / SCEPTER);
testing autonomous weapons for compliance with the principles of security and ethics of the Department of Defense ($22 million / ASIMOV);
increasing the stealth and protection of undersea objects from enemy detection systems ($31.7 million / Willow);
studying the ionosphere to support the capabilities of combat aircraft, improving the performance of radars and communication systems operating in the high-frequency range ($26.9 million / Ouija).
As a result, DARPA's primary focus on addressing specific military needs in terms of unclassified funding will be on strengthening U.S. military control in cislunar space and other key areas of near space. Advanced surveillance and targeting systems will be developed to enhance situational awareness and strike capabilities in future military conflicts.
DARPA Features
Technological Developments: Classified Funding:
Of the approximately $1 billion in classified funding for programs containing sensitive information for U.S. national security, 15.5% each goes to command, control, and communications systems, as well as sensor technologies. The remaining $691.9 million is allocated to network-centric warfare technologies.
DARPA Classified Funding Structure:
The latter is focused on achieving information and communications superiority and envisions increasing combat power through the creation of a unified information network. AI plays a special role in this network. It enables a unified picture of the combat situation, outpacing the enemy in information analysis, decision-making, and dissemination to troops.
It's no coincidence that some open source programs are aimed at ensuring transparent and logical communication between humans and artificial intelligence, as well as verifying AI's compliance with the US Department of Defense's security and ethical principles. This could signal the imminent and widespread use of artificial intelligence in the US military, not limited to weapons systems.
Overall, the number of unique AI references in DARPA program descriptions in budget documents is gradually increasing, partly correlating with the growth of classified funding for network-centric warfare technologies.
The share of classified DARPA funding:
In just six years, the network-centric warfare technologies budget has increased by 2.4 times. Sensor technologies and command, control, and communication systems have increased by 69% and 59%, respectively, over the same period.
Overall, classified funding has more than doubled since 2019. This has also impacted the share of the classified portion of the DARPA budget. In fiscal year 2025, it will reach its highest level since at least 2005, reaching 22.9%. Compared to 2005, the share of classified funding will increase by 97% and will increase by 75% relative to the technology development category budget.
This trend indicates an increase in the number of programs containing sensitive information for US national security.
Number of Funded Programs
According to the FY 2025 budget documents, funding is requested for 167 programs. Almost half of these are divided among three areas: 37 in electronic technologies, 21 in information and communications technology, and 21 in materials and biological technologies.
The number of programs implemented under classified funding remains unknown. However, given the average cost of a program in each area that includes such funding, an additional 40-60 programs could be involved. In total, the FY 2025 budget could provide funding for 207-227 programs.
Organizational Structure
As of April 2024, DARPA had 283 full-time employees. The Agency's official website discloses the names of only 150 employees, 100 of whom are program managers—scientists and highly qualified engineers working in government agencies, private industry, and academia. They are the generators of ideas and concepts, enjoying complete freedom to develop seemingly impossible technological solutions.
Program managers serve a two-year term, with the possibility of extension for up to four years. As of the end of January 2025,
have served an average of two years, two months, and nine days. Their terms rarely exceed five years, accounting for 4% of DARPA employees. A quarter of the employees joined DARPA less than a year ago.
Overall, program managers' terms coincide with the average duration of DARPA-sponsored research projects, which is approximately three to four years and varies depending on the category of work.
Duration of DARPA Program Funding:
Using basic research as an example, it can be seen that a research program takes approximately 4.8 years to complete. In rare cases, program funding can extend to nine years or more.
Some programs are closed if deemed unviable. In such cases, the freed-up funds are redirected to other projects.
The cost of a single program, depending on its focus, typically ranges from $5 million to $50 million per year. In some cases, the cost of implementing a major research project can exceed $200 million.
Contractors
DARPA does not maintain any in-house research units and, in conducting R&D, contracts with academia, industry, and government partners. DARPA awards several thousand contracts annually.
According to the latest available data, in fiscal year 2016, DARPA administered 2,104 active contracts for advanced research and the creation of breakthrough technologies. The order was carried out by 569 contractors worth $2.017 billion. This represents 78% of the budget for basic and applied research, as well as technological development. Accordingly, the actual number of contractors, as well as the number of contracts awarded, should be higher.
DARPA orders are carried out by specially selected cooperations of contractor companies. For example, under the GARD program, leading experts from Two Six Technologies, IBM, MITRE, the University of Chicago, and Google Research were engaged in the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence.
Based on the results of the 2024 calendar year, the US government procurement website contains information on contract award notices to 56 contractors for a total of $688 million.
CONCLUSIONS:
Further ensuring information and communications superiority, which involves increasing combat power through the creation of a unified information network, will take place under the auspices of the widespread use of artificial intelligence. It's no coincidence that some of the open programs for fiscal year 2025 are dedicated to ensuring transparent and logical communication between humans and artificial intelligence, as well as testing AI for compliance with the US Department of Defense's safety and ethics principles.
Some ongoing DARPA projects are aimed at strengthening US military control in cislunar space and other key regions of near space. Work is underway to improve situational awareness in near-Earth space by processing large volumes of high-speed data from distributed satellite constellations. The launch of a robotic complex for servicing and upgrading spacecraft is planned for 2025.
Despite DARPA's share of total government R&D spending having more than halved since 1996, it remains a critical agency in maintaining the advanced development of the United States military. Moreover, the agency's importance is once again growing, as in fiscal year 2025, DARPA will account for 27.5% of the applied research budget, 25% of technology development spending, and 16.4% of basic research appropriations of total US defense spending on science and technology.
Meeting long-term US national security needs lies in areas such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, biotechnology, and materials science. DARPA hopes to stimulate innovation in these areas by increasing its basic research budget by 24% by the end of the decade. The results obtained will provide the scientific basis for subsequent work within the applied research and technology development programs by the early to mid-2030s.
The increase in the classified portion of the Advanced Research Projects Agency's budget to 22.9% directly indicates the growth in the number of programs containing sensitive information for US national security. Network-centric warfare technologies remain the main driver of this increase in classified funding. Their budget has increased by 140% over six years.