[Korrespondent] After the flattery game during Putin's phone call with Trump, peace in Ukraine remains far from on the horizon.
The full-scale war in Ukraine has been going on for 1,331 days, approaching the rank of the longest in modern history, close to the First World War (1,567 days), and surpassing the Korean War (1,129 days).
So far, Ukraine has experienced several phases: the first days of the invasion, when it seemed that Russia would quickly occupy the country; the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which ended this Russian goal and routed Russian forces near Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson; the unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023; the capture of Bakhmut in 2023 and Avdiivka in 2024; the beginning of the "drone" war on the front in 2025.
Now, when it seemed Ukraine might receive Tomahawks, and there was a hint of at least a halt to the fighting on the front lines, the Russian dictator called the US president again. And Putin's attempts to reassure him appear to have been successful.
Although the Spanish publication El Mundo predicts five possible scenarios for the war in Ukraine, with the hope of a deterioration in US-Russian relations.
AN UNRELIABLE WORLD
Trump is increasing pressure on Russia, including by imposing secondary sanctions, pressuring buyers of Russian oil, and supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine. As a result, he is imposing a fragile peace.
"But the practical likelihood that he will be able to 'force' Putin to agree to a lasting peace is low in the short term, since for the Putin regime (not Russia), the war in Ukraine is 'existential', and it will continue to fight at any cost," the publication believes.
WAR ENGULFS EASTERN EUROPE
While Russian provocations have so far been limited to airspace violations by fighter jets or drones, as well as "grey zone" operations such as sabotage and hacking attacks, it is clear that Moscow is escalating its hybrid war against Europe.
Several European intelligence agencies have warned (the German one was the most recent) that Russia is preparing a provocation against a NATO country.
Spanish journalists believe that any provocation could backfire and have serious consequences for the continent's security. Analysts point to the Baltic states as potential targets for Moscow.
THE WAR CONTINUES IN 2026
The Russian invasion will continue next year despite efforts to stop it. This is one of the most likely scenarios, according to El Mundo.
"After all, neither the Ukrainians are going to surrender (something Moscow is beginning to understand almost four years later), nor can Putin afford to avoid war without something that could be called a victory," the article says.
DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS
For the first time since the invasion, the Kremlin has expressed genuine concern about the rapid deterioration of Russia's military economy in recent months and its negative forecasts for 2026.
According to Reuters, Russia's export revenues from oil and refined products are experiencing a steady decline: crude oil and fuel revenues declined in September 2025, despite export volumes reaching recent highs. This reflects the damage to Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone attacks.
And the Moscow Times reported that "Russia faces economic stagnation with growing pressure on public finances, limiting its ability to sustain the war at its current intensity beyond 2026."
As a result, the Russian economy may deteriorate, forcing Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.
THE CAPITULATION OF UKRAINE
The final scenario predicted by the Spanish publication is the exhaustion of allied support, which would force Ukraine to succumb to Russia's maximalist demands.
This is especially true if the Alternative for Germany party or similar forces in other EU countries come to power.
"With the Trump administration now removed, European support is vital for the survival of the Ukrainian state and its army," the media outlet writes.
But this scenario is unlikely due to the position of Eastern European EU countries, which understand that Russia is a real threat to them, journalists add.