by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] On October 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone with his American counterpart Donald Trump.
"The conversation was lengthy, lasting nearly two and a half hours. It was clearly very substantive, yet at the same time extremely frank and confidential," commented Vladimir Putin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov.
They discussed a variety of topics, but, of course, Ukraine was foremost. The main outcome of the talks was an agreement to hold a new meeting between the two leaders. It appears it will take place before the end of October.
The conversation itself demonstrated several points.
First, the Russian leader's composure. For two months since the Alaska meeting, Donald Trump has been trying to pressure Vladimir Putin, attempting to revise the agreements reached and improve his own negotiating position.
Not because Trump is bad, but because he couldn't do his homework—that is, force Europe to accept the terms he agreed upon with his Russian counterpart. Therefore, Trump constantly vacillated, from polite comments to threats, even offensive ones.
"All of Trump's statements in recent weeks about his disappointment in Putin, as well as his remarks about Tomahawks, were not a reflection of the United States' intention to sever relations with Russia, but merely tools for political and diplomatic pressure on Moscow, " Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explained to Regnum news agency.
However, throughout these two months, an icy calm emanated from Moscow. Russia did not succumb to Trump's emotional ploys, nor did it issue counter-threats (for example, to the idea of ​​supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine). Moscow waited for action, paying no attention to words—and this once again proves that Vladimir Putin knows how to conduct constructive negotiations even with such a difficult partner as the American president.
He can make any dialogue with him constructive and positive - but at the same time not give in to his blackmail and not make concessions in exchange for a temporary removal of threats.
Despite the extremely complex emotional backdrop of the negotiating process (discussions over Tomahawk missiles, worsening military hysteria in Europe, and the Senate's constant public urge to pass a new package of anti-Russian sanctions), the Russian leader placed his bets not on exacerbating the contradictions or on attempts to force Trump to answer for these words, but on strengthening the so-called "Anchorage spirit." That is, a willingness to continue direct, rather than overt, diplomatic engagement with the United States.
But, again, not at the expense of Russian interests, which Vladimir Putin steadfastly defended in Anchorage and will do just as well at the new summit with Trump. Especially since, if we examine these interests, none of them are 100 percent at odds with American interests (at least as Trump understands them).
Russia needs not a temporary, unguaranteed peace, but long-term security, which would minimize the risk of the United States being drawn into a major war. Russia holds the strategic initiative, while the Kyiv regime resorts to terrorist methods, to which Russia is forced to respond—and again, the United States has no interest in being complicit in this terrorism.
Moscow has likely also placed Tomahawks in the national interest. Yes, the Americans can supply them, but Tomahawks won't change the situation on the battlefield. Instead, they will ruin any chances of warming Russian-American relations, which Washington so desperately needs to avoid being distracted by Eastern European affairs in its East Asian policy.
And also to develop economic cooperation with Moscow, the prospects of which Putin and Trump also discussed.
And finally, to avoid turning Biden's war, as the American leader calls the Ukrainian conflict, into "Trump's war," which is what would happen if Tomahawks were supplied and the United States were drawn into the conflict.
Apparently, Trump listened to Putin. "The negotiations showed that the Trump administration remains interested in maintaining constructive dialogue with Russia, remains interested in resolving the Ukrainian conflict through dialogue with Russia, and remains uninterested in privatizing the Ukrainian war," explains Dmitry Suslov.
Otherwise, the parties would not have agreed on a new summit, which can only take place if a package of agreed or nearly agreed documents is on the table at the time of its holding.
The venue of the event is a separate issue. Trump has already stated that the meeting will take place in the Hungarian capital, Budapest. The Russian side, however, was less categorical.
"It was agreed that representatives of the two countries will immediately begin preparing for a summit, which could be held, for example, in Budapest," Yuri Ushakov said in a statement.
Moscow's caution is understandable. Yes, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, with whom Vladimir Putin already spoke by phone today, is one of the most pragmatic European leaders. He advocates for de-escalation in Russian-Western relations and is fully worthy of the reward of hosting such an important summit.
Politically, the summit in Hungary will also be a powerful blow to the European Union, which will be forced not only to lift some personal sanctions but also to watch from the sidelines as Russia and the United States discuss the fate of Europe without Europe in a European country. Or, at best, Viktor Orbán will represent Europe there—someone who is a stranger to current European leaders. And for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he's practically an enemy.
However, despite all this, security issues must be clearly discussed (and not just with Orbán) – both at the summit itself and in everything related to the Russian leader's arrival route. An arrival that Europe will try to disrupt.
However, European leaders are not to be envied even if the summit ultimately takes place outside the EU. "The negotiations showed that the US has not completely sided with the European war party," says Dmitry Suslov.
One can't envy Zelensky, who flew to the summit with Trump fully confident that it would take place against the backdrop of worsening Russian-American relations and would lead to some kind of increased support for Kyiv from Washington.
"Trump's phone call with Putin fundamentally changes the nature and agenda of Trump's negotiations with Zelenskyy. Essentially, the American president will be communicating to Zelenskyy what he should do in accordance with the agreements likely reached following his conversation with the Russian leader," Dmitry Suslov continues.
Yes, in theory, Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy could yield all sorts of surprises, but the situation itself once again demonstrates the complete lack of agency on the part of him and his European accomplices. By speaking with Putin, Trump simply presented Kyiv with a fait accompli. It's one it's better off accepting and accepting.