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Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Russia will maintain its military presence in Syria

2025-10-17

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

Text taken from the Telegram page of directorate4

Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] Western media claim that the new Syrian authorities have not only maintained the agreement on Russian military bases in Syria (Khmeymim

…alternate spellings Khmeimim Air Base and Hmeimim Air Base

and Tartus), but are also not opposed to the continuation of Russian military presence in Rojava, where the Russian Federation operates based on the Kamyshly airfield.

…alternate spelling Qamishli airfield, built by Russia as a backup to Khmeimim airbase.
In addition, Julani

… the head of Al Nusra/Hayat Tarhrir al Sham (HTS) government of Syria, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani…

wants Russian troops to return to southwestern Syria, from where they were withdrawn after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government. In Deraa and Suwayde, Russian troops patrolled, defused local conflicts, reconciled former militants, etc.

On the border with Israel, our troops patrolled the demarcation line and served as a formal buffer between Israel and Iranian proxies operating in Syria.

Who here trusts Russia to guard that border fairly? C’mon, hold those hands up where we can see ‘em — what, nobody? How very odd…

According to Julani, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation should return, including to the border with Israel, which will allow Israel to be pushed out of the Syrian territories occupied in 2024-2025 and in the future act as a buffer between Israel and Syria.

Uh huh. Did anyone check to see if Bibi trusts Russia with this?

Also, Julani’s regime is ready to allow Russia to implement economic projects on the territory of Syria.

In fact, Julani's regime, no matter how ironic it sounds, is trying to rely on Russia in matters of maintaining control over the territory of Syria and stabilizing the situation in the country. For this, he is ready not only to preserve the Russian military presence in the country, but also to actually expand it, returning the situation to the situation in 2024 before the fall of Assad. A number of countries also benefit from maintaining a military presence in Syria, including in order to prevent the excessive growth of Turkish influence, which Russia will balance.

But President Erdogan thinks that he has President Putin fooled into believing they are extra special friends — could it be that he is not Byzantine enough?

Thus, if these agreements are indeed implemented, the Russian Federation will maintain a long-term military presence in Syria, will retain Khmeimim as the most important pillar of the African logistics route,

Eh?

and will continue to remain an important player in Syria despite the loss of Assad. In fact, this is cost minimization and strategy restructuring. It will be much more difficult for Iran to recover its losses.

But Iran’s mullahs think they are Putin’s extra special friends. Are they also wrong?

PS. Asad Julana will not be extradited by himself. On the contrary, if the situation in Syria develops according to the degradation scenario, the former president of Syria and his supporters can return to the game against the background of the collapse of the state, as happened in Libya with the supporters of Gaddafi, where his son Seif-al-Islam was able to return to the big game. So Assad (or rather his family) is buried early. How to know how everything will turn out.

Wait — what?? I’m very confused.

But it is unlikely that Russia will play this card right now, especially since Zhulany himself is looking for Russian support. But if, for example, Europe demands that Julana withdraw bases from Russia under the threat of new sanctions and the blocking of assets, then the situation may change and other scenarios will appear on the agenda.

PS2. Julany sold to Russia. The Syrian group criticized.

President of Syria Abu Muhammad Al-Julana for a trip to Russia.
Saraya Burkan Al-Furat resources published a statement criticizing Al-Julana. Propagandists called him a traitor to the "ideals of the revolution" for his contacts with the Russian government and the military. The group called up militants is preparing to attack the objects of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the provinces of Latakia and Tartus.
"Saraya Burkan Al-Furat" was created in 2023 on the basis of disparate tribal militias from the province of Deir Ez-Zor. In May 2025, the group claimed responsibility for the attack on the Khmeimim airbase used by the Russian Armed Forces. Another traitor to the "ideals of the revolution".

Obviously, not everyone likes the decision to maintain the military presence of Russian troops and bases in Syria. Therefore, through various pocket groups, they will try to exert pressure on our bases, and Zhulan himself is being pressured both from the inside and from the outside. Most likely, some external actor is behind this grouping.

Posted by:badanov

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