by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] For Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the election of Donald Trump was a relief, given the Republican's cynical record on human rights. However, at least two geopolitical issues could have derailed relations between the two countries at any moment.
Here’s hoping.The first concerned Syria and was linked to Kurdish separatism, supported by the United States and Pentagon forces stationed in the Euphrates region. The second was the ongoing bloodshed in Gaza, which was straining relations between Turkey and a key US ally in the region, Israel.
Thanks to the change of power in Damascus in December 2024, the Syrian issue became less pressing. The Kurds, and with them the Americans, were weakened. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became a force to be reckoned with, and Trump called him a "winner" who had managed to "take over Syria."
The disarmament of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), as well as their merger with the Syrian army, have not yet taken place, but Trump and Erdoğan are not quarrelling over Syria. Ankara is no longer threatening a new operation against the YPG. Moreover, the AKP has initiated dialogue with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, of which it considers the YPG an affiliate.
The situation with Palestine was more complex: two years of bloodshed had continued, and Israel was already conducting its third military operation, with Trump's approval. Meanwhile, the rhetoric and relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara were becoming increasingly tense. Since the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the likelihood of a military clash between Israel and Turkey on Syrian soil remained extremely high. Thanks to Trump's mediation, de-escalation talks were launched in Baku, but the ongoing war in Gaza kept tensions high.
Trump's Gaza initiative came as a sigh of relief for Erdogan.
Interestingly, the US president announced the 20-point deal on September 29, four days after the historic meeting with his Turkish counterpart. The Oval Office coordinated with Dolmabahçe on many issues, including the Druze-Israeli conflict with the forces of current Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and Armenian-Azerbaijani reconciliation.
A special role here was played by Trump's close friend, partner and US Ambassador to Ankara, Tom Barrack.
It is therefore not surprising that the Republican implemented his Middle East initiative in partnership with Turkey.
Proof of Erdoğan's special role was Trump's statement on October 9, on the eve of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. The occupant of the Oval Office thanked Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar, noting that the Turkish president had personally participated in the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and "did a magnificent job of leading this process."
Axios previously explained what was meant by Erdogan's involvement and role. An unnamed American official told reporters that Erdogan, according to Trump, "was very helpful" in pressuring Hamas to release the Israeli hostages.
The Turkish factor was fully evident on the main day of the summit in Egypt.
On October 13, Erdogan was not only one of twenty foreign representatives who arrived in Sharm el-Sheikh, but also one of the signatories of a joint quadripartite declaration, along with Trump, the Egyptian president, and the Qatari emir.
The American leader managed to hand out compliments to everyone, but, perhaps as is now tradition, Erdogan got the most of it.
"Erdogan has one of the most powerful armies in the world. He is much more powerful than he claims.
He's won many conflicts, but he doesn't want any credit. He wants to be left alone.
"He's a tough nut to crack, but he's my friend and always there when I need him. When NATO has problems with him, they turn to me. I talk to Erdogan, and he never lets me down. He's amazing. Thank you for your friendship," he said.
While Egypt and Qatar act as mediators—they have hosted key negotiations on Gaza, not only now but also in 2024—Turkey is one of the implementers of the peace process. At the meeting itself, which was not attended by Hamas or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the former was represented by Erdogan, and the latter by Trump.
Although the American has invited other Muslim countries, including Indonesia, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, to participate in peacekeeping, the success of the deal may depend greatly on the Turkish-American tandem.
The two main obstacles to its implementation remain the disarmament of Hamas and the deoccupation of Gaza. Ankara could facilitate the first objective, Washington the second.
Turkey already has experience in building military structures and political institutions in Syria, and it could share this experience in Gaza.
Furthermore, with external funding from wealthy Gulf monarchies and the European Union, Turkish construction companies could participate in the reconstruction of the dilapidated Gaza Strip. The World Bank estimates that more than $50 billion is needed for such projects.
Trump's initiative, supported by Erdogan, is only the first step.
Beyond the future of Hamas and the Israeli presence in Gaza, there's a more pressing issue: Palestinian statehood. What about Israeli settlements in the West Bank and the Knesset resolution that there will be no Palestine?
All these issues are currently unfavorable for either Trump or Erdogan. They prevent the former from savoring his diplomatic victory, and the latter from reaping its fruits.
On October 14, Erdogan stated that he would maintain close contact with the US President and was glad that “Trump personally announced the ceasefire”: “He will personally monitor the situation, which he assured me of.”
The Turkish president wants to believe this: even if the de-occupation of Palestine doesn't happen,
| …which it won’t… |
| …until Hamas breaks the hudna, anyway. |
| … but not resolution of the old tensions, based as they are on President Erdogan's objections to Israel’s existence as an independent nation like any other.. |
The ceasefire in Gaza creates a positive backdrop for Ankara's deals with Washington to advance in other areas, but it doesn't guarantee success or a breakthrough on complex issuest such as lifting sanctions on F-35 fighter jets. At a meeting in September, the American made it clear what he wanted in return: a cessation of Russian gas purchases.
| …which Turkey won’t… |
Although Europe quarrels with Netanyahu and has recognized Palestine, in the event of direct attacks on the Jewish state it quickly expresses solidarity with him and recalls its historical responsibility.
Moreover, Erdoğan was constantly under pressure from the opposition, which periodically accused him of trading with Israel and betraying Palestine in the name of good relations with Trump. Now this pressure will subside.
Pro-government Turkish media are already boasting of their president's diplomatic victory, writing that the genocide in Gaza has "officially" ended. But beyond the Gaza deal, Erdoğan managed to score another tactical victory. As soon as he learned that the Israeli prime minister was heading to Sharm el-Sheikh, he turned his plane around directly over the Mediterranean.
Thus, Erdogan can also count the Israeli Prime Minister’s absence from the “Peace Summit” as an asset.
Related:
Tom Barrack 10/08/2025 (More) Clashes erupt between Kurdish forces and Al Qaeda-linked Syrian regime elements in Aleppo before go’t declares ceasefire
Tom Barrack 09/27/2025 Israel-Syria talks said to hit snag over Israeli demand for humanitarian corridor to Druze
Tom Barrack 09/25/2025 Hezbollah weakened but financially resilient a year after Israel war
Tom Barrack 10/08/2025 (More) Clashes erupt between Kurdish forces and Al Qaeda-linked Syrian regime elements in Aleppo before go’t declares ceasefire
Tom Barrack 09/27/2025 Israel-Syria talks said to hit snag over Israeli demand for humanitarian corridor to Druze
Tom Barrack 09/25/2025 Hezbollah weakened but financially resilient a year after Israel war