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Israel-Palestine-Jordan

The war is over, thank you all: Trump declared Israel's 'incredible victory'

2025-10-14

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov

[REGNUM] Israel and Hamas, under the auspices of international mediators, are continuing their peace process. The first symbolic stage—the exchange of hostages and prisoners—is nearing completion. An even more ambitious step lies ahead: the signing of a "permanent peace treaty," which will pave the way for long-term agreements.

However, even with such a positive development of events in Tel Aviv, behind-the-scenes debates continue about the future of the Palestinian enclave.

LONG-AWAITED FREEDOM
The release of Israelis and foreigners held captive by Hamas began at 4:00 a.m. Moscow time. The first eight have already been handed over to Israeli forces.

Another dozen will be released soon, under guarantees from the Red Cross and the Red Crescent Society. Representatives of humanitarian organizations have already arrived in the enclave and are preparing to transport the freed to Israeli territory. In total, the survivors spent 738 days in Palestinian captivity.

At the same time, the return of the bodies of Israelis who died in custody is currently complicated – representatives of the movement and Arab mediators note that due to the high activity of Israeli air force and artillery in the final stage of the conflict, Hamas is unable to deliver them to the exchange sites in a timely manner.

All 20 living hostages were returned, all in very bad shape. But only four of the dead, with no commitment of when Hamas would give up the rest of the bodies.

There is also a risk that the issue of the return of the dead, which is not as pressing for the Israeli authorities, will drag on and go beyond the implementation of the first stage of the agreements.

Hamas is still trying to hold onto some bodies as human shields. And even the day before yesterday, they were trying to capture IDF soldiers to replace those they were about to give up.

Israel has also prepared groups of Palestinian prisoners for transfer to Hamas (a total of 1,900 people) and will soon distribute them to designated locations: 1,700 will return to Gaza, 15 to East Jerusalem, and 100 to Judea and Samaria. The rest will be deported.

Clearing out the prisons to make room for the new terrorists to be arrested in the days, weeks, months to come.

At the same time, Tel Aviv still does not disclose who exactly is included in the “final list.”

HUNTING FOR LOYALISTS
The withdrawal from Gaza gave Hamas the opportunity to return to areas previously controlled by Tel Aviv. This came as an unpleasant surprise to the Bedouin militias and clan militias fighting alongside the Israelis.

In fact, they were left alone with the enemy and without the support of the local population, which literally bombarded the returning Palestinian security forces with information about collaborators.

The main blow fell on the Popular Forces (formerly the Gaza Control Committee, which controls part of Rafah), which participated in Israeli offensive operations and also destroyed humanitarian aid arriving in the enclave. During the first 24 hours of the "ceasefire," at least fifty Israeli proxies were arrested, including several commanders.

Loyalist leader Yasser Abu Shabab and his closest associates have taken refuge in a fortified residential complex located near Israeli checkpoints. For this reason, Hamas is in no rush to launch an assault, fearing provoking Israeli retaliatory fire, and is instead planning to attrite its opponents.

In addition, Palestinian intelligence agencies launched a hunt for the Dogmush clan, whose members also actively assisted Israeli military operations—in particular, by helping direct aircraft and artillery to areas where the movement's command posts were based.

However, unlike the Popular Forces, the reason for the vendetta was the assassination by loyalists of the well-known Palestinian journalist Saleh al-Jafrawi, who, although not a member of Hamas, made a major contribution to reporting on the situation in the enclave.

Israel is currently turning a blind eye to internal clashes between Palestinians and is in no rush to rescue its former tactical allies. Israeli security officials are evasive in responding to journalists' questions about the future of the loyalists, preferring not to focus on their failed attempts to defeat Hamas from within.

TRUMP'S OPTIMISM
However, the main focus this time is not on the situation in the enclave, but on US President Donald Trump's visit to Israel. The Republican is en route to Egypt for the "Peace Summit," where he plans to ceremoniously announce peace between Hamas and Israel and sign a historic agreement.

In addition to Trump and Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the summit will be attended by leaders of more than 20 countries, including Great Britain, Italy, Spain, France, Turkey and other states.

But not Israel, a fascinating situation.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres and European Council President António Costa will also be present. Hamas's interests will be represented by friendly mediators Egypt and Qatar.

However, despite the fact that Trump is only passing through Israel, his agenda includes a ceremonial speech at the local parliament, talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other high-ranking officials.

Trump told Knesset members that the agreements he brokered were "an incredible victory for Israel and the world. This is the historic dawn of a new Middle East."

It is possible that he will also make time to meet with the freed hostages, especially since among them are citizens of the United States and countries friendly to Washington.

Judging by his first public statements, the American president is optimistic and convinced that the signing of a "permanent peace" between Israel and Hamas will proceed without any particular difficulties.

Moreover, according to Trump himself, the Palestinians even accepted some of the controversial terms of his initiative. For example, some Hamas units agreed to disarm and leave the enclave in exchange for security guarantees. However, the movement itself has not confirmed this information.

A DELICATE BALANCE
Although the overall positive momentum for a settlement remains, no one, with the exception of Trump, is rushing to draw far-reaching conclusions.

Pessimists are convinced that the agreements between Israel and Hamas will have to be reinforced "at least several times," especially given that the movement has continued to avoid direct participation in signing a peace agreement.

Moreover, the Hamas leadership has not abandoned the idea of maintaining influence in the post-war enclave – at least through factions friendly to it – which categorically does not suit official Tel Aviv.

The risk of political revenge in the Palestinian enclave, in turn, fuels the fears of Israeli hawks, who are increasingly pressuring Netanyahu and his entourage to withdraw from the negotiations immediately after the body of the last dead hostage leaves Gaza.

As a result, an interesting situation has emerged for Tel Aviv: on the one hand, the Israeli authorities managed to emerge from the protracted conflict with minimal losses (although the goal of militarily defeating Hamas was never achieved) and strengthen domestic political stability. The key divisive factor—the fate of the hostages—is now off the table.

On the other hand, with the cessation of hostilities, maintaining a balance of interests within the government will become much more difficult. The coalition needs a unifying enemy, which has disappeared from the agenda since the reconciliation with Hamas.

Although Tel Aviv is trying to shift its focus to confronting Hezbollah and even launching periodic airstrikes in southern Lebanon, this tactic hasn't been very effective so far. The "hawks" continue to see Hamas, rather than other forces hostile to Israel, as the primary threat.

Facebook Reel: Haviv Retig Gul explains the Trump plan.

Posted by:badanov

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