by Kamran Gasanov
| To be fair, he isn’t a sultan — he is a mere president of a third tier country with delusions of grandeur and an obsession with getting everyone to help him destroy Israel because Turkey simply can’t do it on their own. |
Although the presidents immediately established chemistry—and Trump praised his counterpart from the first days of his election victory—events occurred immediately before the meeting that cast a shadow on the negotiations and were seen as bad signs.
First, the Turkish president's motorcade was blocked on its way to the UN General Assembly meeting to allow Trump's cars to pass. Erdogan, who loves respect and honor, was unlikely to appreciate such a reception, unworthy of a sultan.
Then Secretary of State Marco Rubio poured a "cold shower" on him, commenting on the Turkish leader's interview with Fox News, in which he questioned Trump's promise to resolve the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
Rubio said foreign leaders "can say whatever they want, but ultimately, when they need to solve a problem, they want to come to the White House—like President Erdogan, who is also going to meet with the president."
Erdogan and other leaders are practically begging to at least shake Trump's hand. Although it should be noted that journalists can sometimes provoke a scandal with their questions, and it's no coincidence that Rubio made the reservation that he didn't hear Erdogan's entire interview.
The Turkish administration hastened to clarify its chief's words, so as not to dampen the positive mood between the two leaders ahead of the meeting. In a letter to Fox News, Turkey's Presidency pointed out the translation error and clarified that Erdoğan was not criticizing Trump, but rather emphasizing the need for effort in resolving conflicts and the difficulties involved.
The two-hour meeting between Trump and Erdoğan, judging at least by outward appearances and their behavior, was not spoiled by Rubio's "attack." The Oval Office's occupant continued the tradition and began praising his guest.
"I don't usually like people with strong views, but I like him. Erdogan is a tough guy, with a clear position, and I like that," he said, reiterating the Turkish president's victory in Syria. Moreover, it was "at Erdogan's request," as Trump put it, that he lifted sanctions on Damascus.
It's worth noting that the meeting between current Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and the American president in Riyadh also took place with Erdoğan's assistance. The American also praised the Turk for his contribution to the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process and noted that he is respected by both Ukraine and Russia.
As for the practical part of the negotiations, no one saw any “wow effect” or sensational deals.
The Turkish establishment hoped to secure the lifting of sanctions on the F-35 fighter jets or at least the delivery of F-16s as compensation for the $2 billion previously invested. But despite wearing an F-22 pin on his jacket, Trump responded to questions about the fighter jets with, "We'll see" and "I think he (Erdogan – Ed.) will get what he wants." No decisions were made on the matter.
Trump showed that he was ready to lift sanctions on Turkey under the CATSA law, but demanded that his counterpart introduce restrictive measures against Russia: “I would like him to stop buying Russian oil.”
We've previously written about how sensitive the issue of energy sanctions is for Turkey. Let's just recap the numbers. Turkey is 100% dependent on imported gas, 40% dependent on Russia for gas, and 90% for oil. Whether Erdogan is willing to bring the Turkish economy, which is only just recovering from hyperinflation, to its knees for the sake of American fighter jets is a rhetorical question.
Risking the economy during a period of intensifying opposition struggle is doubly risky. On the day of Erdoğan's visit, the Turkish Central Election Commission overturned a court decision to suspend the election of the leader of the Istanbul branch of the Republican People's Party (CHP), effectively lifting the external control imposed on it. Özgür Çelik, who had been dismissed from his post, has once again become the leader of the CHP's Istanbul branch.
On geopolitical issues, the negotiations' results were also quite modest. Yes, Trump acknowledged Erdogan's influence in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. However, the American president ignored Turkish criticism of Israel and demands to stop the war in Gaza.
Although Trump recently made it clear that he will not allow Netanyahu to occupy the West Bank (in fact, it is already occupied), the Republican is firmly opposed to Erdogan's sister party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Hamas, on the Gaza Strip.
The virtual failure on Palestine has given the opposition, represented by Özgür Özel, yet another reason to cast aspersions on the head of state. The CHP leader says Erdoğan continues to remain silent for his own political interests.
A more or less tangible positive outcome of the meeting was the memorandum on civil nuclear cooperation. "We are launching a new process that will deepen the multi-layered partnership between Turkey and the United States in the nuclear energy sector," stated Turkish Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
There are no specifics yet, but given Ankara's plans to build new nuclear power plants—Sinop and Trakia—it is highly likely that American companies will compete with Rosatom and South Korean companies.
The negotiations between the US and Turkish presidents, which began with scandals, also ended with them. The final blow was a statement by the US Ambassador to Turkey, Thomas Barrack.
Speaking about the need for a new approach in relations with Ankara, he quoted Trump, who noted that the main issue is not the F-16 and S-400, but recognition of Turkey's status and Erdogan's legitimacy.
The point is that the previous administration constantly criticized its NATO partner for persecuting the opposition, while the Republican does not interfere in internal affairs.
For Erdogan, Trump's neutrality in his showdowns, whether with the Kurds or Ataturk's heirs, is indeed extremely important.
Ozel once caustically remarked that without US support, Erdogan would not have dared to arrest his main rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
However, Turkish media reacted to Barrak's words with hostility. In particular, the newspaper Karar believes the ambassador's words suggest that the US granted Erdoğan legitimacy.
"In Turkey, the legitimacy of the president and parliament comes not from Washington, but from the Turkish people. Insulting statements must be responded to," Karar quoted Ahmet Davutoğlu, former prime minister and Erdoğan ally (and now rival). The publication also cited Trump, who called Erdoğan "an expert on election fraud" during a meeting with the Turkish leader.
The bottom line: Erdogan's achievement in Washington was that Trump received him, praised him, and struck a deal with him. However, the statements by Rubio and Barrack, as well as the demands for sanctions against Russia, demonstrate that Trump actually treats Turkey with condescension and won't give Erdogan anything for free. Friendship is friendship, but service is service.
Against this backdrop, the proposal by AKP's ruling coalition partner, Devlet Bahçeli, to "look both ways" and form an alliance with Russia and China seems more relevant than ever.