by Yaroslav Belousov
[REGNUM] Even those who don't follow the news from Europe regularly hear outrageous stories about the migration policies there.
For example, just recently in the UK, a local woman was arrested after getting into an argument with a group of Islamists distributing the Quran. Following this, the woman is under investigation, with law enforcement accusing her of Islamophobia.
Or another case. An Ethiopian migrant who raped two women in Epping, thereby provoking mass protests by British citizens, was sentenced to... one year in prison for his crimes.
Donald Trump harshly criticized the massive influx of migrants at the UN General Assembly. The American president lashed out at the "globalist migration agenda" and emphasized that "Europe is in serious trouble."
How did Europe get to this point? When did it cross the line beyond which the most grotesque caricatures of far-right ill-wishers began to materialize?
Let's trace the moment when European countries embarked on the dangerous path of demographic migrant replacement.
THE BEGINNING OF TRANSFORMATION
Until the early 2000s, migration processes in Europe were predominantly internal in nature: southern Europeans went in search of a better life in Scandinavia, Germany, and France, while eastern Europeans moved to western countries.
But over time, the proportion of immigrants from African and Asian countries in the migrant influx began to increase. At the same time, another phenomenon began to emerge: the second- and third-generation descendants of migrants, unlike their parents, no longer demonstrated a desire for integration. Instead, they began to swell criminal networks and increase the burden on social systems.
Already between 1997 and 2001, migrants were involved in every fourth criminal case in Sweden, and children, one or both of whose parents were once foreigners but later naturalized, were responsible for another 20% of cases.
Crime rates among people of African and West Asian descent began to exceed those of the native-born population. In neighboring Denmark and Norway, migrants accounted for 65-70% of rape cases, despite making up only 5% of the population.
Similar events occurred in the UK, Germany, and France. Many remember the infamous riots in the suburbs of Paris in 2005, perpetrated by migrant children. A local resident was killed, 30,000 cars were burned, numerous buildings were damaged, and over a hundred police officers were injured.
Migration was accompanied by a growing terrorist threat. While terrorism had previously been the preserve of separatists (primarily Basque and Corsican), right-wing and left-wing radicals, in the 2000s, the overwhelming majority of terrorism-related crimes were committed by Islamists.
The most famous events were the attack on the Twin Towers in the United States on September 11, 2001, the bombings at the Madrid train station in March 2004, and the terrorist attack on the London Underground in July 2005.
Increased migration waves in the 2010s and 2020s
Armed conflicts in African and Asian countries have pushed a significant portion of the local population to move to more prosperous European countries.
Civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Libya, periodic escalations in the situation in Palestine, and the rise to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, which caused a wave of refugees, continue to contribute to the “great migration of peoples.”
A significant jump occurred between 2013 and 2015, when the number of migrants arriving in the EU more than tripled, from 556,000 to 1.8 million.
The situation is also exacerbated by the demographic transition that has begun in third world countries.
Improvements in healthcare and services are contributing to a decline in mortality, but the birth rate has only declined in relatively developed countries such as Turkey, Iran, Qatar, and Bahrain. In other countries, population growth is significantly outpacing economic growth, forcing millions to seek refuge in Europe's "paradise of freedom."
For example, in Germany in 2021, approximately 190,000 asylum applications were submitted, while in France, 100,000 were filed. Around 60,000 refugees arrived in Italy by sea this year, and 70,000 in 2022. However, the United Kingdom remains the leader: 239,000 arrived in the country in 2021, 318,000 in 2022, and 350,000 in 2023.
THE CRISIS OF THE EUROPEAN SECURITY SYSTEM IN THE FIELD OF MIGRATION
The growing influence of diaspora structures, the rise of religious fundamentalism and xenophobia in Western European countries have resulted from both the EU's lack of effective levers for regulating migration issues and political concessions at the national level.
One need only look at Hungary and Poland, which have more favorable migration conditions, whose authorities seek to restrict migration, often in defiance of recommendations and regulations from EU bodies. In particular, Budapest and Warsaw continue to stubbornly refuse to accept migrants who have entered Italy and Greece.
The system for distributing national refugee quotas at the Union level is effectively non-functional. Coordination in the migration sphere is becoming impossible, as a number of countries refuse to shoulder the costs at the national level, and Brussels officials lack effective tools to compel them to do so.
Moreover, not a single EU country has yet implemented any projects to deport illegal migrants, owing to the ideological and political inertia of the elites. Meanwhile, increased support for Ukraine is forcing countries already suffering from an influx of refugees to postpone addressing the migration issue.
At the same time, it's worth recognizing that migrants themselves most often see Western Europe, rather than the former Soviet bloc, as their ultimate destination. Popular perceptions of these countries' social systems and the ease of obtaining asylum there continue to play a significant role here.
All this leads to uneven migration pressures and an intensification of demographic replacement processes in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, and the UK, which stands apart after leaving the EU.
Eurostat data on the nationality of the leading recipients of citizenship among migrants in EU countries in 2016–2022 are very revealing: they turned out to be Moroccans and Syrians (11% and 9% of the total number of citizenships issued, respectively).
In addition, in 2022, 22% of newborn children (that is, every fifth child) were born to migrant mothers, in 2013 the figure was 18%.
It is obvious that the civilizational face of Europe is changing, and more and more rapidly every year.
THE EUROPEAN RIGHT IS TRYING TO CHANGE THE SITUATION
Nationalist and Eurosceptic politicians are attempting to reverse or at least halt the demographic replacement process in European countries. Their immediate efforts are currently hampered by a lack of leverage and the long-standing cultural dictates of left-liberal discourse, which treats the terms "nation" and "homeland" as anachronistic.
Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain's rapidly growing Reform Party, has promised to abolish indefinite leave to remain in the UK if he wins the election, which would mean migrants who have lived in the country for more than five years would lose their right to benefits and citizenship.
In France, National Rally president Jordan Bardella is calling for the abolition of birthright citizenship. He believes it would be appropriate for people born in France to foreign parents to be allowed to apply for French citizenship only upon reaching the age of 18, even if they have lived in the country since birth.
Other leaders of right-wing parties in Europe are also putting forward their proposals. However, for now, they're limited to mere air, as any attempts to seize control of the government apparatus are met with the formation of broad fronts of leftists and liberals who are preventing forces like the Reform Party, National Rally, or Alternative for Germany from gaining power.
Western Europe now faces the prospect of losing the fundamental attributes of Europeanness—Christian culture and the institutions of the nation-state. All this reinforces regionalist tendencies, as local leaders and politicians seek to distance themselves from projects that are foundering. Therefore, the declaration of independence by Scotland, Wales, and Flanders may soon become less of a fantasy.
And coupled with the increasing number of supporters of “jihad” and Breivik fans who want to oppose them, this puts the continued existence of both the EU as a whole and individual European countries into question.