A decision, the negative consequences of which will redound to the French republic; But to the Israelis first
by Olesya Orlenko
[REGNUM] On September 22, at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, French President Emmanuel Macron officially announced his country's recognition of the Palestinian state. A historic decision and a decisive step forward for some. For others, an ill-considered move of merely symbolic significance. Why does the head of state need this recognition?
President François Mitterrand himself expressed a desire to recognize Palestine. However, France is far from the first European country to do so. In fact, half of Western Europe already considers the State of Palestine a player in international affairs.
For example, Great Britain also recognized it, a day ahead of the French: the corresponding statement was made by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on September 21.
The Palestinian issue is not at all foreign to French society. For many decades, support for an independent Palestine has been and remains a key item on the left's foreign policy agenda. This underpins the editorial policy of left-wing newspapers, such as L'Humanité.
And this is also the most important lever for mobilizing the electorate of “France Insoumise,” whose leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, won almost 22% of the vote in the last presidential elections in 2022.
Moreover, supporters of the "unconquered" form the backbone of the protests taking place across the country, including those that took place most recently on September 10 and 18. The most recent demonstration was very large, attracting, according to organizers, approximately a million people.
The demonstrators openly expressed hostility toward the authorities. They carried posters and chanted slogans calling for the resignation of the president and his appointed prime minister, and even brought a model of a guillotine, which they claimed was intended for the head of state.
According to recent polls, only 17% of French people approve of Macron's performance. These figures make him not only the most unpopular president of the Fifth Republic but also one of the least popular in the EU.
It is highly likely that by recognizing Palestine, the president is trying to gain the approval of part of the protesting population and the French of Arab descent, for whom this issue is sensitive.
He's also likely hoping that his move will be interpreted domestically as a demonstration of France's independence from the United States. After all, that's precisely how the American press interprets Macron's move.
And his hopes are not unfounded: there was a heated public debate over Palestinian flags, which, according to many politicians and officials, should have been displayed on city administration buildings on September 22. Despite recommendations from the Ministry of the Interior against this, hundreds of French administrative units ended up displaying such flags near city halls.
At the same time, official recognition of Palestine is, as many media outlets report, a symbolic step that will not have any serious geopolitical consequences in the Middle East, at least initially. The state Macron recognizes lacks clearly defined borders, has no capital, and has very few representations abroad.
The term of Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas ended in 2009. The extent of his influence over Palestinian internal affairs is highly questionable. It's difficult to imagine how the country plans to hold new elections under the current circumstances.
However, the consequences of this move could impact France itself, which is home to approximately 500,000 people of Jewish descent. The annual increase in anti-Semitic violence has long been a concern for French society and law enforcement.
In response to concerns that the president's foreign policy actions were fueling ethnic hatred within the country, Macron promised a "general mobilization" against ethnic hatred.
However, the head of state tends to attribute numerous manifestations of anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim sentiment to the interference of certain external forces. This raises doubts about the extent to which Macron understands the seriousness and depth of the problem.
The question of a real settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and what contribution France can make to this also remains open.
Initially, the French side put forward a number of conditions for recognizing a Palestinian state, but was unable to obtain Palestinian guarantees of compliance. As a result, some of these conditions, such as the release of French hostages, became conditions for establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries.
But the biggest criticism leveled at Macron is that he's trying to solve the problem without a key player—Israel. Government circles say France is confused about who its friends are and who its enemies are.
Abbas's unconditional faith in his promises irritates the Israeli side. Macron attempted to gain Israel's favor by refusing to call its actions against the Palestinians genocide. But this is unlikely to ensure Israel's agreement to regard France as a country with the right to make geopolitical decisions in its region.
By announcing France's recognition of the State of Palestine, Macron received a few minutes of glory and congratulations from representatives of many countries. It's a shame, however, that this decision is unlikely to result in a diplomatic victory. And even less will it bring real improvements to the people suffering from the war.
Meanwhile, in France, the Palestinian issue is spiraling into hysteria, and journalists and experts say the situation demands government intervention. Citizens are expecting a wave of violence and even terrorist attacks. They are worried that the actions of the president and government, which have so far failed to address the problem, will have the desired effect this time.
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