by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Israel has upped the ante in its conflict with Hamas. On September 9, IDF aircraft attacked the Qatari capital, Doha, where a meeting of the movement's political branch (the so-called Politburo) was taking place.
Moreover, shortly before the attack, Hamas leaders received security guarantees from the United States and gathered together to discuss (and perhaps even adopt) a new version of the “Trump peace plan” for Gaza.
Now, however, it appears that the diplomatic track will be relegated to the background for a long time.
OPERATION PEAK FIRE
The operation to eliminate key Hamas functionaries (dubbed “Peak Fire” in operational reports) traditionally began with a campaign to lull people’s vigilance.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar suddenly announced that Tel Aviv is ready to accept the terms of the US "peace plan" for the Gaza Strip and move the conflict into a diplomatic channel. This was the first such statement by the authorities of the Jewish state, which had previously rejected negotiations without preliminary concessions from Hamas.
However, Saar's speech, which began with the thesis "The war could end tomorrow," turned out to have an ominous subtext.
Neither Washington nor Doha considered the game of meanings.
Moreover, the United States (via Qatar) persuaded the political leadership of Hamas to meet to discuss a new "peace plan." The participants in the meeting were guaranteed security and immunity, and so the Palestinians accepted the invitation without asking any questions. The meeting was attended by those functionaries who had previously coordinated the work of the resistance from Turkey.
A few hours later, Doha was rocked by explosions: IDF aircraft struck the Hamas headquarters. The raid involved about 10 fighter jets equipped with advanced missile and bomb systems. The strikes were carried out in a “carousel” (from Saudi Arabian airspace), with an interval of several seconds, which created additional chaos at the site of the attack.
Qatar's air defenses were unable to react to the threat - Patriot systems identified the Israeli aircraft as "allied", confusing them with American ones, which allowed the IDF to approach the Qatari-Saudi border without additional maneuvering.
However, even after the aircraft's affiliation was identified, there was no order to repel them: in Doha, they thought until the very end that the IDF was "covering its tracks" before entering Iran or Yemen, where increased Israeli activity had already been observed.
When the true purpose of the attack became clear, there was no longer any point in “catching up” with the retreating strike group. Doha and other Arabian monarchies could only complain about the incident to Washington and demand explanations from Tel Aviv.
OPERATIONAL DOUBTS AND THE RESULT ON THE GROUND
As reported by Israeli media, citing the Cabinet of Ministers, the operation to eliminate the Hamas Politburo was postponed several times “due to operational doubts” – including uncertainty that aircraft would be able to freely enter the airspace of a neutral country.
It is also noteworthy that this time the operation was directed jointly by the military (Air Force, military intelligence AMAN) and counterintelligence (Shabak), and was therefore positioned as “counterterrorist”.
Israel's foreign intelligence service (Mossad), which had long been at the forefront of the fight against the Palestinian resistance (and had carried out operations to eliminate its key functionaries), was opposed.
According to intelligence officers, the chances of destroying the entire Politburo at once (even if they gathered in one place) were “extremely low.”
As a result, the attack on Doha was coordinated simultaneously from two operational points: the Kirya command complex (army) and the Shin Bet headquarters (intelligence services). The link between them was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose appointees (Defense Minister Israel Katz and Shin Bet chief David Zini, respectively) developed the overall outline of the operation.
The rest of Israel's "War Cabinet," without whose participation such decisions, theoretically, cannot be made, learned about the raid on Doha from the media.
The strike on the gathering place of Hamas leaders was relatively effective.
According to Israeli statements, several important figures in the movement were killed at the scene: one of the leaders of Hamas and its key negotiator, Sheikh Khalil al-Haya, his son Humam, the head of the political office (secretary) of Hamas, Jihad Labad, as well as three trusted persons (Mu'aman Hassouna, Abu Khalil and Abu Malek ).
Their liquidation was verified based on statements by the Palestinian resistance and publications by local journalists.
At the same time, the “Hamas financiers” Khaled Mashal, Nizar Awdallah and Zaher Jabareen (who are also members of the movement’s governing bodies), judging by reports from the field, were not seriously injured in the strike.
As are some of the "international negotiators" authorized by the movement to negotiate the hostages and the status of Gaza.
There is no final clarity regarding Sheikh al-Hayya either: the Palestinians and Israelis sometimes list him among those killed, sometimes claiming that he emerged from the fire unharmed.
This means that Mossad was generally right in its assessments: Tel Aviv failed to defeat the Politburo on the first attempt.
Moreover, the surviving functionaries greatly strengthened their authority in the ranks of the resistance, promising to continue the work of their fallen comrades.
IT TURNED OUT AWKWARD
The United States suffered the greatest reputational losses from Israel's attempt to eliminate the political leadership of Hamas at one go.
And the issue is not so much that one regional ally of Washington has shown aggression towards another – although the United States will have to somehow curb this story, so as not to create fears among other Arab partners.
More importantly, the American security guarantees were once again a sham. Even though the Israeli government took responsibility for the attack (emphasizing that both Washington and Doha were informed “after the fact”), this did not help to defuse the situation. Especially after the Israeli press (including the Jerusalem Post) began writing in unison about some kind of “green light” that Washington gave to Tel Aviv.
Against this backdrop, the Qatari Prime Minister, after the attack on the capital, departed from his usual soft rhetoric and declared that responsibility for undermining the peace deal lies entirely with Tel Aviv. Moreover, the wounded Doha reserved the right to respond to the attack in whatever way it deems necessary.
However, for now, Qatar, apparently, wants to put pressure on Israel using legal rather than military instruments.
At the same time, a trend towards a new escalation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia is also emerging. Doha is unhappy that Riyadh did not bother to warn its neighbor about the danger – even when the Israelis had entered the airspace of the eastern part of the country and were preparing to approach the target.
The Qatari authorities saw this as an attempt to weaken the country's military and political potential by proxy, which contradicts Riyadh's declared course of "zero conflicts with neighbors." On the other hand, Doha has a chance for even greater rapprochement with Egypt - especially since Cairo allegedly even tried to warn Hamas about the upcoming provocation. The only Arab country sympathizing with the movement.
As for Hamas, the movement (despite losses among its top political leadership) has not yet announced its withdrawal from the negotiations and remains ready to discuss a “diplomatic settlement” of the conflict.
However, it is unlikely that one should expect “gentlemanly indulgences” from the Palestinians. New conditions of the deal (which Tel Aviv had previously called “obviously unfeasible”) will be added to the existing ones, which will make further negotiations more symbolic, designed to calm the US, which advocates a diplomatic outcome.
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