by Olesya Orlenko
[REGNUM] Having developed the French budget for 2026, Prime Minister François Bayrou decided to organize a vote of confidence in the National Assembly at the beginning of the discussions on this document. However, instead of the expected support of deputies, the head of government saw how all representatives of the opposition spoke out against his policy. What are the possible developments after this?
As soon as Bayrou voiced the idea of organizing a parliamentary vote of confidence in the government during a press conference on August 25, experts and the press began to ask why he needed it?
The answer to this question should be sought in his political past.
François Bayrou has run in presidential elections many times since the 1990s, and in 2007 he came in third place behind Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal. He did not make it to the second round, but he received 18.57% of the vote, well ahead of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who received 10.44%.
It was during this election campaign that Bayrou made the fight to reduce the country's public debt one of the key points of his program and was deeply concerned that society and political circles were paying so little attention to this problem.
When Bayrou urged Emmanuel Macron to give him the post of prime minister last December, he argued, among other things, that he had long been thinking about the issue of public debt and foresaw the detrimental consequences of its growth for the French economy. He was confident that he would be able to find a balance between the necessary reduction in spending and the preservation of areas of activity vital to the country.
Indeed, the budget drawn up by his predecessor Michel Barnier, rejected by the National Assembly, envisaged a reduction in public spending of 60 billion euros. François Bayrou managed to reduce this amount to 44 billion euros.
However, opposition parties also considered this document to be harmful.
Communist leader Fabien Roussel called it "poison for France" and said he would propose concrete measures to the prime minister to improve it. The National Rally also said it disagreed with the proposed draft, saying it would defend its approach to economic recovery no matter what.
But Bayrou did not use any of these recommendations. Just as he rejected the advice of the Socialists, expressed personally by former President François Hollande.
Seeing that the upcoming budget debate would be difficult and would possibly lead to a vote of no confidence in the government, François Bayrou decided to forestall the events and organize his own vote, which would, on the contrary, symbolize confidence in his policies. This, according to many analysts, was a mistake from the start, since asking for support from an opposition that is obviously hostile is absurd.
As expected, immediately after the news of the upcoming vote on September 8, Bayrou's political opponents announced their intention to cast "no" votes.
Yesterday the prime minister made a final attempt to persuade the dissenters, urging them to accept a "historic decision".
" They tell us that we can wait, that the ship is still afloat. But if we want to save the ship that we and our children are on, we must act without delay... France will be in total chaos. And the risk of that is very high. You can overthrow the government, but you cannot change reality," Bayrou said in his speech.
Persuasion didn't work.
He was supported by only 194 deputies against 364. At the end of the vote, the need for Bayrou's resignation became obvious. The media reports that he has already written a letter of resignation and will hand it over to the president this afternoon.
Now all of France is waiting to see what Macron will do, having “taken note” of the results of yesterday’s vote.
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal reports that the president does not want to dissolve parliament again and will look for a candidate who suits both him and the current composition of the National Assembly. However, everyone remembers how long it took the head of state to make his choice last year.
All that remains is to look for a candidate for the new prime minister among the opposition.
The Socialists have returned to last year's calls to choose a candidate from their ranks. Party leader Olivier Faure has expressed his willingness to lead the government, sacrificing a split in the ranks of the already ununited left.
But there are also those who, in view of the collapse of the left-wing coalition, are calling for the National Rally to be considered the largest parliamentary faction and for a member of this party to be appointed head of government. This idea was voiced, for example, by former European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton.
However, not everyone believes that the new appointment will save France from another political crisis.
Former President Nicolas Sarkozy, in an interview with Figaro, made fun of Macron's desire to " put his left shoe on his right foot," saying that a new dissolution of parliament is the only way out of the situation, giving a chance for one party to finally form an absolute parliamentary majority.
The leader of the National Rally parliamentary faction, Marine Le Pen, wants the same thing. For her, new elections are not an option, but an obligation for the president. According to some reports, deputies from her party are going to put forward a vote of no confidence in any candidate not from their ranks that Macron appoints.
What is happening is complicated by the fact that clouds are gathering over Macron himself.
The extremely low level of trust of the French in the president (15%, according to the latest data) is noted even outside France, predicting his possible premature departure from the post of head of state. And the leader of "France Insoumise" Jean-Luc Mélenchon directly says that Macron's further stay in the post of leader of the Republic will only worsen the situation.
But Macron has repeatedly stated that he intends to stay until the end of his presidential term.
In addition, the resignation of the head of state in France is possible, but a very long and difficult matter. The proposal must be studied by a special commission, then voted on in the lower house of parliament, and then the entire procedure must be carried out in the upper house. And only after that must the Supreme Court make a decision, and by at least two-thirds of the votes. So, most likely, the discussion of this possibility will cause a big media resonance, but will not yield quick political results.
Meanwhile, 82% of French people currently describe yesterday's events as depressing.
Macron tends, as always, to underestimate the problem and call what is happening a parliamentary crisis. While most people understand that there are all the signs of another political collapse, which could be aggravated by new social protests. The nearest ones are already preparing for September 10.
Perhaps the situation could be resolved more easily if Macron devoted as much attention, effort and resources to solving domestic problems as he spends on maintaining the war in Ukraine.