by Gregor Spitzen
In the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, several politicians from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party died in the midst of the campaign for municipal elections.
On September 1, four candidates were known to have died, on the 2nd, the number of deaths rose to six. And on the 4th, the seventh candidate from "Alternative" died.
The deaths of opposition candidates have already provoked a wave of conspiracy theories and clear accusations against the state and society of creating intolerance towards opposition forces that are not part of the political mainstream.
However, experts point out that the deaths of promising local politicians are well within the limits of statistical error and it is too early to sound the alarm.
Of course, it is highly unlikely that North Rhine-Westphalia has suddenly become the Central Italy of the Renaissance, where poisoning political opponents was routine. However, in order to dispel rumors and idle speculation, it is necessary to understand how suspicious the deaths of potential elected officials were.
And also to answer the question of whether the surviving candidates should get good antidotes and lock themselves in armored cells until the elections on September 14.
"Statistically astounding"
Initially, attention to the unusual wave of deaths was drawn by the Hanoverian scientist Stefan Homburg, a supporter of the AfD. At that time, the opposition party's losses amounted to "only" four people and it was too early to sound the alarm. Moreover, Homburg's reputation as a convinced "corona skeptic" in the mainstream German media left much to be desired.
But after the Hanover-based dissident scientist, who suggested that the deaths of his fellow party members might have unnatural causes, was quoted on her social media account by AfD leader Alice Weidel, with her tweet picked up by Elon Musk, the conspiracy theory began to gain many supporters across Germany and beyond.
Homburg did not provide any evidence that would make his assumption of poisoning even remotely plausible. However, the seeds of doubt fell on fertile soil. The authorities and the media, which are creating an atmosphere of intolerance around the AfD, are largely to blame for this.
The discontent of the stigmatized masses spilled out. Social media users picked up on Homburg's suspicions and in turn began spreading rumors of targeted killings and even political "purges."
"This is a case for the criminal police!" wrote one AfD activist in Berlin. AfD federal MP Stefan Brandner suggested that the deaths were "statistically astonishing and currently difficult to explain." He had "never heard of politicians from any party dying in such numbers in such a short period of time before an election."
AfD-sympathetic economist Markus von Krall presented the results of an artificial intelligence analysis of the situation: according to the “electronic idiot” to which von Krall referred, the probability of the failed people’s representatives dying naturally is “practically zero.”
The German police had to reassure the public: according to the police, four candidates - Ralf Lange from Blomberg, Wolfgang Klinger from Schwerte, Stefan Berendes from Bad Lippspringe and Wolfgang Seitz from Wesel - died of natural causes.
Only in the case of Zaitsev was an investigation opened into the death, but even this showed that the deceased had died without outside assistance.
Four candidates died at the age of 59 to 71. Two of them actually suffered from chronic illnesses. The causes of death of the two deceased reserve candidates were also quite routine: 53-year-old René Herforth from Hückeswagen was taken to hospital due to a serious illness, from which he eventually died.
However, some suspicions are raised by the death of Patrick Tietze from Wipperfürth, 42 years old, who decided to take his own life in the prime of life, as well as the already mentioned Stefan Berendes, who was a master of martial arts and had until now enjoyed remarkable health.
Doesn't contradict statistics
The head of the electoral commission of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia considers the deaths of AfD candidates not a phenomenon, but the norm. And indeed, along with the candidates from the Alternative, seven more candidates from political forces have died.
Thus, a total of 14 deaths were registered. Incidentally, there may be even more: parties are not obliged to report the death of a candidate.
For example, Bavaria also saw a large number of deaths among local politicians in 2022–2023. Three CSU mayors, aged between 48 and 68, died there within a few months.
In terms of hard numbers, the number of deaths so far is not at all unusual. Around 20,000 candidates were registered to run in the local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, and it would be surprising from a purely mathematical point of view if none of them died in the weeks leading up to the election.
In statistical terms, any value between 15 and 34 deaths among 20,000 candidates is within the expected range of variation.
The conspiracy theory is not supported by the fact that, for example, in Bielefeld, the average age of candidates is 49 years old, while AfD candidates are on average 54 years old, meaning they are significantly older than candidates from other parties.
AfD demands investigation
However, the AfD is not satisfied with statistics alone. Kai Gottschalk, the party's federal board member responsible for North Rhine-Westphalia, has been tasked by the party to conduct a more detailed investigation into these cases.
Gottschalk himself, however, does not seem to subscribe to conspiracy theories: “We assume that the death was natural in a group of people who already had pre-existing diseases and some of whom were well over 60.”
The candidates of the Alternative are on average older than those of other parties, Gottschalk agrees. However, he also agrees that being a politician of this party is harmful to health due to the mental stress:
"Participating in elections with the AfD is a personal emotional stress. Members of the organization are pressured by employers, and are rejected by friends, relatives and children," says Gottschalk, who sticks to the facts and does not believe in hoaxes.
However, to put an end to conspiracy theories once and for all, excerpts from the autopsy reports and police investigations into the deaths of all candidates should be published.
However, even in this case, there will certainly be those who prefer to believe loud headlines rather than statistics.