by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Relations between Turkey and Israel, which have been in a crisis since October 2023, sometimes reaching the level of hostility and almost direct military conflict, have reached a new level of tension.
Louder, yes. Different? Not really. As the head of the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, however unofficial the connection, President Recep Tayip Erdogan — wannabe first sultan of the neo-Ottoman empire — has long desired the defeat and absorption of that uppity Jewish state. The fact that Turkey is unable to ride the train to that station is terribly frustrating for the poor man. Each IDF operation in Gaza is assessed by Ankara as a continuation of the "genocide of the Palestinian people",
| …heckuva genocide when the population still keeps increasing due to a higher birth rate than claimed deaths at IDF hands… |
“The Hitler of our time,” “the butcher of Gaza,” “fascists,” “Islamophobes,” “terrorist,” “occupier” – this is how he calls Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his cabinet.
The response is no less caustic: "snake", "a man from the Muslim Brotherhood" (banned in Russia), "will repeat the fate of Saddam Hussein". The most harmless "compliment" was given by the head of the Israeli Foreign Ministry Gideon Saar, who called the leader of the northern neighbor "a sultan with imperial ambitions".
Personal insults from both sides are common, but concrete actions are far more serious blows.
| We are talking about decisions made last year. Nothing new is happening. |
Tel Aviv was not embarrassed by this behavior. The IDF did not stop bombing Gaza. Moreover, the Israelis began to behave defiantly in Syria, where after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad the Turkish leader felt like the rightful master. Israeli aircraft struck not only Turkish bases, but also the presidential palace in Damascus.
Then in May, Turkey banned Netanyahu from flying Air Force One, and he was unable to visit Baku, where he was rumored to have met with Erdogan, under the pretext of the escalating situation in Gaza. A series of meetings between Israeli and Turkish security officials in the Azerbaijani capital, initiated by Donald Trump, failed to normalize bilateral relations.
In the June war between Israel and Iran, the Turks sided with Tehran, and the Israelis' plans to launch a new large-scale operation in the Gaza Strip further exacerbated the situation.
In the last days of August it seemed that things couldn’t get any worse.
Yes, all relations have been severed, Turkey constantly threatens with an “Islamic army,” tries to consolidate Muslim countries along the OIC line, and Tel Aviv does not renounce aggression against Syria, whether under the pretext of protecting the Alawites and Druze or stopping the Turkish military machine there, but the parties refrain from a head-on clash.
However, recently Netanyahu managed to reach an even deeper bottom in the escalation with Ankara.
In an interview with American-Armenian podcaster Patrick Bet-David, the prime minister first said that the Knesset had allegedly recognized the mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide (although the Israeli parliament has not passed such a law). And then, when asked why no Israeli prime minister has done so yet, he replied: “I just did. There you go.”
It is clear that the Knesset is unlikely to achieve immediate consensus on this issue; previous attempts, such as in 2011 and 2018, failed. However, Netanyahu’s statement is still far-reaching.
For the Turkish authorities, the question of interpreting the events of 1915 is of fundamental importance. Perhaps even more fundamental than the topic of the current massacres of Palestinians in Gaza.
The current president associates his rule with the Ottoman Empire and considers himself the heir not of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, but of the sultans. Any statement by a foreign representative on the topic of Armenians is perceived by him as a personal insult. Not to mention the prestige of Turkey, its integrity and finances.
| The poor darlings. Their widdle feelings is hurted. |
| Oh? Who by? |
The response was to “shift the blame” and sever all relations with Israel.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that what "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to do is nothing more than an attempt to cover up his own genocide," referring to the killing of more than 60,000 Gazans.
| Compare to the approximately 1,000,000 Armenians murdered by the Turks, back in the day, whose cousins are still found in Syria, Jordan, and 100,000 in Glendale, California. |
A number of journalists and media outlets wrote about Turkey's decision in the present tense. But in fact, Fidan said the following: "Turkey has stopped all trade with Israel, does not allow Turkish ships to enter Israeli ports and has closed its airspace to Israeli aircraft." We are talking about decisions made last year. Nothing new is happening.
Formally, Türkiye has cut both political and economic ties with Israel. The only difference is that after Netanyahu's words, the prospects for potential normalization through the Baku meetings are becoming more obscure.
Erdogan is unlikely to send a delegation to third countries to engage in dialogue with his opponent in order to improve ties in the near future. Such meetings will become even less likely in light of the fact that the IDF may move to more decisive steps to destroy Hamas and Palestinian statehood.
When talking about breaking ties, we should not forget that there have been and will be exceptions.
Observers note that the flight ban does not apply to private Israeli airliners flying through Turkish airspace, which is confirmed by the well-known monitoring site Flightradar.
As for trade, despite the announcement of a complete embargo, $400 million worth of exports from Turkey to Israel did take place in the first half of 2025, according to the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. A large share of this amount probably comes from Azerbaijani oil, which Erdogan is forced to turn a blind eye to in order not to offend his allies in Baku.
Recognizing the tragic events of the First World War as genocide will poison the already strained Turkish-Israeli relations, will aggravate the crisis, but will hardly become some kind of casus belli for more serious actions.
The systemic problems in relations between the two countries remain the same, and they are linked to regional geopolitics.
Israel does not want to allow Turkey to strengthen its position in the border countries of Syria and Palestine. Erdogan’s partnership with Trump, as well as the Gulf monarchies, Egypt and Iran in the framework of Islamic solidarity with the Palestinians is perceived by Tel Aviv as a threat.
On the other hand, Israel’s expansion in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, support for Kurdish separatism, and the complete curtailment of Iran’s influence with US support could turn it into “Greater Israel” (with which Netanyahu recently associated himself) and damage Ankara’s influence in the Middle East.
Based on the experience of past crises, it can be assumed that under the current status quo, Israel and Turkey will balance on the brink of war, but will not risk direct conflict for objective reasons. Turkey is the second army in NATO with a population of 80 million, and Israel is a de facto nuclear power with the support of the United States.