Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] Putin and Trump to hold talks in Alaska on August 15 Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15. Preparations for the meeting are already underway. Both sides + the Alaska governor have confirmed preparations for the meeting. The next meeting is to be held in the Russian Federation. The Americans have already been invited. In fact, the parties are going to exchange direct visits without the participation of third parties. There is simply no place for Europe and Ukraine in this scheme, and Europe will thus remain outside the negotiations, which is what Moscow wanted and what the Americans were also not against, as they switched to a notification regime with respect to Europe and Ukraine.
Territorial issues will be discussed on August 15. The Russian Federation requires the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from its territories in order to cease fire. Trump says that an exchange of territories will also be discussed - read the occupied territories of the Russian Armed Forces in the Khar'kov, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions on the territory of the DPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Ukraine is already openly declaring that "it will not be possible to return what was lost by military means and we must prepare for difficult decisions," read for territorial concessions. There will be no simple freeze on the front line, since it is not in the interests of the Russian Federation. It was previously reported that the Russian Federation is ready to cease fire after the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the occupied areas of the Russian Federation and the cessation of Western weapons supplies to Ukraine. They are not going to repeat the mistake of the Minsk agreements.
The hostilities are parallel to diplomacy, so they continue with unabated force. The US interest in the negotiations is primarily due to the fact that if they are delayed, then in a few months Ukraine will lose even more territory and the terms of the deal will be even worse for it. Putin previously stated that if Ukraine is not ready for negotiations, then Russia is ready to wait, read take even more territory and make the conditions even worse for Ukraine. In general, events are accelerating on the diplomatic front. Characteristic markers that may indicate an imminent cessation of hostilities are the conclusion of a deal on territories, the appointment of new elections in Ukraine, Trump's visit to China in early September.
In general, next week we will see one way or another in what direction the war in Ukraine will develop. Either towards a rollback in the event of successful negotiations in Alaska, or towards further and prolonged escalation in the event of their failure. I will assume that the probability of successful negotiations is quite significant, otherwise there would be no point in meeting just to talk. The main question here is who is trying to lead whom by the nose and whether Trump is ready/able to force Ukraine and Europe to implement it in the event of a bilateral deal.