by Gevorg Mirzayan
[TEGNUM] On Tuesday, July 15, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov concluded his major Asian tour. In the Chinese city of Tianjin, he took part in a meeting of colleagues from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and before the meeting he was received by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The success story at the meeting was unexpectedly Afghanistan, the same one that used to be the main threat to the SCO. They managed to find a common language with the Taliban. But Russia's relations with the US are not so cloudless - at the summit, Lavrov, taking advantage of the opportunity, spoke about the pressure that the United States is exerting on Moscow and other members of the organization.
The SCO itself has long been a model structure for a multipolar world. Firstly, it has no vertical leadership: everyone, from China to Kyrgyzstan, has an equal voice and veto power. Secondly, because the SCO includes rivals at odds with each other (for example, India and Pakistan) and thus encourages them to cooperate.
THE PILLAR OF EURASIAN SECURITY
This is primarily about cooperation in the area of collective defense. “ The SCO was initially created as an organization focused on economic cooperation. Now the economy has gone to BRICS, and the SCO is primarily concerned with security,” Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, explains to Regnum.
It just so happens that all members of the organization are interested in stability, progressive development and the preservation of the secular nature of power in Central Asia. That is, simply put, it is necessary to protect the region from radical Islam and the influence of third overseas countries - those that are located far away, but still try to turn Central Asia into a source of unrest.
"It was decided to create a Universal SCO Center for Combating New Challenges and Threats in Tashkent on the basis of the current Regional Anti-Terrorism Center. At the same time, an SCO Anti-Drug Center is being created in Dushanbe, which will be linked by a special agreement and interaction procedures with the Center for Combating New Challenges and Threats, and a structure aimed at combating organized crime will be formed in Bishkek," Sergey Lavrov said following the meeting.
At the same time, some threats that have poisoned the atmosphere in Central Asia for decades have now been neutralized. For example, Afghanistan, with whose authorities Moscow has managed to reach an agreement. And not only Moscow. “Almost all SCO members are stepping up work with Kabul on a bilateral basis, and we are all united in the importance of effectively assisting in the restoration of this country and its sustainable development as an independent, neutral, peaceful state free of terrorism and drugs,” the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
This means that it is possible that Afghanistan will soon transform from a source of problems into a transit region for North-South transport corridors, and will also conclude agreements with Russia, China and other countries – “deals,” as US President Donald Trump would say – to develop its mineral wealth. Such equal agreements could also contribute to the growth of prosperity for ordinary Afghans.
| Possible, yes. Have the Taliban given up their idea of an expansive Caliphate — Al Qaeda’s, if not their own? |
THE BACKGROUND OF THE ULTIMATUM
The agenda of the meeting also included a topic that is outside the jurisdiction of the SCO – Ukraine. Lavrov spoke about the Kyiv regime’s refusal to negotiate, about the participation of Europeans in the SVO – but many were primarily interested in Trump’s fresh threat to introduce 100% tariffs against Moscow and its trade partners if an agreement that would end the armed struggle is not reached within 50 days.
Lavrov said that Russia responded to this statement calmly, making it clear that it would wait. "We want to understand what is behind this statement of '50 days'. There were 24 hours and 100 days before. We have been through all of this, and we really want to understand what motivates the President of the United States," the minister explained.
And the issue here is not so much about the motives for the threats - they are quite clear. Trump was, of course, driven by the desire to force the Kremlin to accept his scheme (which only assumed a deep freeze and did not take into account the goals of the SVO).
"Without the ability to convince Moscow within the framework of bilateral relations, the President of the United States, apparently, decided to do this through Russia's partners - members of the SCO. To put pressure on them so that they, in turn, put pressure on Moscow," Dmitry Suslov, deputy head of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, suggests in a conversation with the Regnum news agency.
The question is what the White House owner will do next. In Moscow, they believe that his new strategy is doomed to failure. "Our trade partners hear what has been said, but they can hardly predict their actions now. They have obligations, international obligations. And knowing these partners of ours, I do not see how they can abandon their independent policy," says Lavrov.
BENEFITS FROM PARTNERSHIP
The addressees of Trump's ultimatum are obviously such SCO members as India and China - the main buyers of our energy resources. It is highly likely that they will not refuse to purchase. Not only because of their independent policy, but also because of their unwillingness to lose the benefits of partnership.
China, which understands that Russia's importance as a major supplier of resources is only growing on the eve of an inevitable conflict with the United States, will not refuse. India, which, after the start of the NWO, sharply increased its purchases of Russian oil for processing at its refineries and subsequent sale as fuel and other oil products, is unlikely to refuse.
Last month, purchases reached an 11-month high of about 2.08 million barrels per day, according to Indian media.
"And on each barrel they save about 10 dollars. In general, Russia now accounts for 40 to 50% of all Indian crude oil imports," explains Igor Yushkov, a lecturer at the Financial University and an expert at the National Energy Security Fund, to Regnum.
Delhi does not want to lose this income, especially because of empty threats. “India has not yet responded to Trump’s threats. So far, he has only made words. When these words become actions, then there will be some kind of reaction,” Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Indian Ocean Region Center at IMEMO RAS, explains to Regnum.
THE GENERAL LINE IS UNCHANGED
Moscow is betting on patient waiting, which has its own logic. Trump has made loud promises and threats on trade, security, and relations with allies more than once or twice. His threats rarely develop into specific systemic actions. Including because these steps, as it turns out, can often harm the United States itself more.
This was the case with the sharp increase in import tariffs for China – and this will most likely be the case with the threats of tariffs against the same India. If not Trump himself, then at least his advisers should remember how the story ended with Delhi, which was threatened for cooperation with Tehran several years ago.
At that time, these threats provoked the anger of Indian politicians, scientists and civil society in general. The attack on sovereignty had the opposite effect to what was desired. As a result, Washington, not wanting to lose a promising partner in South Asia, backed down.
We have stated that our common line on strengthening the SCO as one of the supporting pillars of a more just multipolar world order remains unchanged," Lavrov said following the meeting in Tianjin. According to him, this common vision is supposed to be reflected in the SCO development strategy until 2035.