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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | ||||
| Trump needs to hit Iran where it hurts: Tehran, not Yemen - opinion | ||||
| 2025-03-30 | ||||
| [Jpost] It is paramount, therefore, that the current campaign be augmented and that the administration’s bite matches its bark. The Trump administration’s renewed bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen features the correct rhetoric against the Iranian regime but, so far, appears short on translating that rhetoric into kinetic action. If US President Donald Trump wishes to avoid yet another unsuccessful and costly failure – both financially and in terms of munitions expenditure – to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the current operation will need to be expanded. It must include a ground component using local Yemeni anti-Houthi forces,
President Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on March 17, “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!” National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also emphasized that Iranian targets would be “on the table.” To date, however, no such action has been taken. THAT NEEDS TO CHANGE FOR TWO PRIMARY REASONS First, the Houthis – more correctly known as Ansar Allah (“Partisans of God”) – are not independent decision-makers. The organization is a direct outgrowth of the Islamic Revolution that conquered Iran in 1979 and is a veritable branch of the guardians of that Islamic Revolution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, much like its sister group in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Indeed, an IRGC Quds Force brigadier-general and his Hezbollah deputy sit on the Houthi “Jihad Council,” the group’s supreme decision-making body. The de facto commander of its missile and drone forces is the infamous IRGC-QF commander in Yemen, Abdul Reza Shahlai, who ordered and directed the opening salvo in 2023 against international shipping. All Houthi attacks are planned, directly ordered, and overseen by IRGC commanders, including from Hezbollah, stationed in Yemen. All components, weapons, and nearly all targeting intelligence used in the attacks are from the IRGC. Thus, Iranian assets in or near Yemen, particularly intelligence ships like the Behshad and Safiz, are critical targets to degrade the IRGC’s capacity to close the Red Sea or attack naval vessels. Furthermore, the actual decision-makers behind Houthi piracy are in Tehran, not Sanaa. It is they who need to face not only economic pressure but also targeted strikes that threaten their ability to control their regional Islamic empire, of which Yemen is but a satrapy. Second, if the president is yet again blustering with no follow-through, it could be the coup de grâce to already severely eroded US credibility and deterrence. Another North Korean “fire and fury” moment with no action – especially after threatening Hamas multiple times with no action – will be seen by US adversaries as a green light to do whatever they want. Unfortunately, Trump has made very clear in word and deed over the past decade that he’s not interested in getting involved in a serious overseas conflict, suggesting that the chances of serious strikes against Iranian regime targets are slim.
It doesn’t help that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who Trump trusts implicitly,
If the administration’s rhetoric reflects its actual intent and is translated into concrete action, then this campaign could eventually succeed where others have failed. The alternative, in which, despite the administration’s tough rhetoric, the US ineffectively bombs the Houthis for several days or weeks with no ground component, no increased interdiction campaign, and no strikes against the Iranian regime, is likely to dramatically embolden already-emboldened Western adversaries. It is paramount, therefore, that the current campaign be augmented and that the administration’s bite matches its bark. | ||||
| Posted by:Skidmark |
| #9 ^ Who wants to play Letters of Marque and Reprisal? |
| Posted by: SteveS 2025-03-30 22:01 |
| #8 ^i wonder if Irish Rage Biy is sailing there to seize it himself. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2025-03-30 21:22 |
| #7 "Occupy Cha Bahar!" used to be a popular phrase or sumpthin |
| Posted by: Frank G 2025-03-30 16:57 |
| #6 Just crush Iran and Kabul economically. Drop the price of oil and stop funding the Taliban and the Syrian terrorists. Plug the Houti leadership and any Iranian boats helping with targeting. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2025-03-30 16:30 |
| #5 No, you really wanna hurt Iran, hit the only to oil export facilities it has. In in the Persian gulf and the other newer one outside it. It also imports all of its gasoline so hit the couple harbors where ships offload it. No more money for Iran, no gas to move things around. Check. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2025-03-30 14:51 |
| #4 There is a lot of unfinished business between Iran and the US on both sides. Boomers in the US were very influenced by the hostage crisis - their counterparts in Iran lost family and friends to SAVAK |
| Posted by: Clem+Elmish4239 2025-03-30 12:48 |
| #3 Unfinished business from decades ago. The Iran hostage crisis was an international crisis (1979–81) in which militants seized 66 Americans at the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 of them hostage for more than a year. It took place after Iran’s Islamic revolution in 1978–79 and poisoned U.S.-Iranian relations for decades. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2025-03-30 10:09 |
| #2 First things first. The Hooties are an immediate problem that needs to be dealt with. Doing so in a thorough and enthusiastic manner is bound to have a bit of "kill a chicken to scare the monkey" on Tehran. And if push comes to shove later on, our pieces are already on the board. Let the mullahs stew in their own juices for a while. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2025-03-30 10:07 |
| #1 ...I'm wondering if going after Yemen isn't the point. That is, we turn the place into hopeless craters while telling Tehran - loudly and publicly - that there's not a damned thing they can do about it. That would send the mullahs into a frenzy. There's a lot of chances for a strategy like that to go sideways, but it'll make a point. Mike |
| Posted by: MikeKozlowski 2025-03-30 07:28 |