[Regnum] The collision of asteroid 2024 YR4 with the Moon could be dangerous for the Earth, since the collision of the cosmic body with the surface of the satellite will result in an explosion with an energy release of about 8 megatons. This was reported to TASS by astronomer, research fellow at the M.V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Leonid Elenin.
"A collision [of an asteroid] with the Moon could be dangerous for the Earth, because there would be a powerful explosion, an energy release of approximately 8 megatons. The Moon has no atmosphere, low gravity, so all the ejected debris could eventually fall on our planet," Elenin said.
| Ok. What’s the probability? |
| Only 1%? I can sleep peacefully at night with that likelihood. |
According to astronomers' calculations, asteroid 2024 YR4 may approach Earth in a little less than eight years - on December 22, 2032. In early February, NASA estimated the risks of this collision at 2.2%, later this figure rose to 3.1%. However, the service then again adjusted the figure to 0.28%.
| Definitely sleep peacefully. |
A team of observers from the University of Arizona and NASA, created to identify potentially dangerous space bodies, admitted that 2024 YR4 could crash into the Moon. Experts noted that in this case, some debris could fall to Earth, but it would not pose a serious threat.
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YR4Â 02/25/2025Â Asteroid 2024-YR4: odds of hit down to 1 in 26,000
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YR4Â 02/16/2025Â Astronomer reveals when data on the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 will be available