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| Saudi Prince Plays His Own Game at US-Russia Talks in Riyadh | |
| 2025-02-20 | |
| Direct Translation via Googler Translate. Edited. by Kirill Semenov [REGNUM] The organization of the meeting of the Russian and American delegations in Riyadh is an absolute victory for the de facto leader of the kingdom, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He demonstrated that the kingdom under his leadership is capable of successfully promoting “soft power” and being a key mediator in resolving the largest geopolitical crises.
Just recently everything was the other way around and it was very difficult to imagine such a turn of events. It is significant that during the negotiations between the Russian and American delegations in Riyadh, Volodymyr Zelensky was nearby the entire time, in the UAE, also expecting to arrive in the Saudi capital the day after the end of the meeting. However, local authorities apparently made it clear to him that his appearance in the kingdom was undesirable. MBS, as bin Salman is called, really wants to see the settlement process through to the end. And Zelensky's appearance at such a moment could spoil the entire game for the Saudis, especially in the context of Trump's statements about the need for elections in Ukraine and the money that disappeared there. Thus, in Riyadh they do not consider Zelensky to be endowed with any subjectivity, but they see him as a factor capable of disrupting their deal. LONG ROAD TO RIYADH Saudi Arabia has been trying to play the role of mediator since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, and it is now clear that these efforts have begun to pay off. Since the summer of 2022, reports have been leaking into the expert community about alleged contacts between representatives of Russia and Ukraine with Saudi mediation on the territory of the KSA. The Saudi crown prince then played a key role in a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine in September 2022. At that time, with the mediation of Mohammed bin Salman, Russia released 10 foreign mercenaries captured in Ukraine, including five Britons and two Americans. The move was made possible by the close ties that had developed between Prince Mohammed and the Russian president. Saudi Arabia, along with its neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, has also successfully brokered other prisoner swaps between Ukraine and Russia. And the prince played a “major role,” as a Trump spokesman put it, in securing the release of American citizen Mark Fogel from Russian custody. And back in February–March 2023, the kingdom’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan made shuttle visits to Ukraine and Russia in search of ways to resolve the conflict. "Our main goal is to find a way to end the conflict. And I think everyone agrees that the only way this conflict will ultimately end is through negotiations," Prince Faisal said at the time. And the search for a solution was not in vain. In August 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted consultations on ways to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. The consultations were attended by representatives of 30 countries, primarily from the Global South. The country's officials viewed these talks not as support for Ukraine and a demonstration of agreement with the US position, but as evidence of their global influence. The talks were also seen as confirmation of the Saudis' desire to diversify their diplomatic partners and become the leading mediator and negotiator on the topic of Ukrainian settlement. This, of course, required Riyadh to maintain a high level of relations with Moscow. The KSA also played a positive role, from Russia's point of view, at the so-called "peace summit" that took place in Switzerland in June 2024. Saudi Arabia tried to take into account the position of the Russian Federation, which has long been an important partner of the kingdom. Moscow and Riyadh have many common ties - from coordinating efforts within OPEC+ and pricing policy in the hydrocarbon sector to issues of regional security in the Middle East. In order to maintain its political weight, Saudi Arabia needed to remain an equidistant intermediary and mediator in resolving the Ukrainian crisis and not be associated with direct support for one of the parties to the conflict. And it should be noted that Riyadh succeeded in this despite the attempts of Zelensky, who visited the KSA as an invited person at the Arab League summit in May 2023 and on a working visit in February 2024, to dissuade Mohammed bin Salman. Zelensky's visits to Saudi Arabia should be seen only as a certain compensation for other actions of the KSA in the international arena in order to maintain the necessary background of relations with the West. Thus, his participation in the Arab League summit was supposed to smooth over the negative reaction of the United States and its allies to the presence there of the then Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. And the visit of the head of the Kyiv regime to Riyadh at the beginning of last year was supposed to somewhat balance in the eyes of the West the grandiose tour of Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2023 to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in terms of the level of reception. At that time, the presidential liner was accompanied by Russian Su-35 fighters as an honorary escort. TRUMP'S CUNNING PLAN Now, after the launch of Russian-American consultations, new prospects for participation in the resolution of other conflicts are opening up for the kingdom. And the points gained for organizing the talks on Tuesday give bin Salman the opportunity to act from a stronger position on the Palestinian and Iranian tracks. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia as a place for Russian-American negotiations was not chosen by chance by the Americans. Trump probably wants to play on the ambitions of the House of Saud, as if confirming the effectiveness of Riyadh's previous efforts to find a solution to the Ukrainian crisis. The next step will be to involve the kingdom, which has acquired a taste for it, in more active participation in the resolution of the crisis in Gaza in the direction that the US needs. And then, according to the Americans' plan, there should be a reconciliation between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the building of a new Middle Eastern anti-Iranian alliance headed by them. American experts also note that Trump's plan for Gaza is primarily aimed at Saudi Arabia, in order to force the kingdom to pay for its reconstruction and resolve all issues with the presence of Hamas in the enclave. It looks something like this: "if you don't like my plan to evict the Palestinians and seize Gaza, offer something better or don't interfere." A similar strategy was already tested by the Trump administration in the summer of 2020. Following the failure of the “deal of the century” during his first presidency, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declared his intention to annex a significant part of the West Bank. It could have been a simple bluff. But the leader of the UAE, Mohammed bin Zayed, demanded that Netanyahu abandon his plans as a condition for recognizing Israel, although he was previously unwilling to take this step. Netanyahu agreed. After that, the UAE was able to claim that it saved the Palestinians from the threat of annexation of the West Bank. Now, in response to the rejection of his own plan, Trump will push Saudi Arabia not only to invest in the reconstruction of Gaza, but also to recognize Israel without demanding the creation of a Palestinian state. In this case, Riyadh's step towards Tel Aviv will look like a necessary sacrifice to save the Palestinians from eviction and the "Trump plan", and will allow it to save face. SAUDI ARABIA CONTINUES ITS GAME However, whether the new White House administration will succeed in such a trick is a big question. Saudi Arabia has become much stronger and has learned to play its game with the Americans to the end, which it demonstrated during the presidency of Joe Biden, refusing any concessions to Washington. Therefore, there is another point of view on the role of Riyadh in Russian-American negotiations: Saudi Arabia itself forced both Russia and the US to acknowledge its role and, in fact, became the only platform for dialogue, while relations between the US and Saudi Arabia are still far from ideal. A possible hint of continuing tensions between the two countries may be the unusually short press releases from both sides about the negotiations between US and Saudi Arabian representatives, which were held in parallel with the Russian-American talks. The State Department did not even mention Saudi Arabia's mediating role in the talks with Russia, and Saudi Arabia released only a short video of the conversation between the crown prince and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. According to Middle East Eye, the Trump administration is unhappy with Saudi Arabia for several reasons. The kingdom ignored Trump’s call to increase oil production last month. If that call was “all hot air,” Saudi Arabia’s decision to continue to block US airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen from Saudi air bases and through Saudi airspace is a particularly sore point in the relationship: Trump redesignated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization in January over their attacks on merchant ships. The US said Rubio and the crown prince discussed “security in the Red Sea and freedom of navigation,” but Saudi Arabia again refused to support US plans for war against the Houthis and intends to continue peace talks with them. On the other hand, Israel is increasingly lobbying the Trump administration to support strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. However, this issue also faces resistance from Riyadh. Instead of using force on Iran, Saudi Arabia has already offered to act as a mediator to revive the “nuclear deal” and restore ties between Tehran and Washington. If bin Salman succeeds in this operation, he will further increase the kingdom’s international importance. Of course, the KSA is concerned that Iran is moving closer to creating nuclear weapons after its proxies ceased to be a deterrent for the US and Israel. But Saudi Arabia believes that attacks on its nuclear infrastructure may ultimately not solve the problem, but only exacerbate it and lead to a major regional war. Moreover, military operations do not guarantee the complete destruction of all Iranian nuclear capabilities. Riyadh is therefore looking to use its close ties with Trump to provide Tehran and the White House with a diplomatic path forward, underscoring Riyadh’s desire to cement its improved relationship with its former adversary, Iran, and secure a seat at the table for a potential new deal. While Trump has said he might engage in dialogue, Iran’s position is ambiguous. Last week, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that negotiations with the United States were “unwise.” However, it appears that Saudi Arabia may try to persuade Iran’s leadership. Trump's stance could also help. The American president continues to hint that he remains interested in a deal with Iran and is open to diplomacy aimed at resolving all the difficult issues surrounding its nuclear program. It is too early to talk about any clear American strategy regarding Iran, but it is obvious that Trump will seek ways to closely coordinate with all key partners in the Middle East, and not just with Israel, to resolve the accumulated problems. *** Of course, Saudi Arabia will try to use its close relations with the Trump administration, but only to strengthen its own influence in the Middle East and the world as a whole. Riyadh is ready to make certain concessions to Washington, but expects no less significant reciprocal steps from the United States. The Americans themselves taught the Saudis to rely on their own strength and pushed them to build new regional alliances and networks without the participation of the United States. And now it will be very difficult for them to "tame" the KSA again, forcing it to play someone else's game. The Kingdom will continue to pursue a course to consolidate its position as a leading regional power and gain the status of a new pole of a multipolar world, maintaining a high level of relations with Russia and China. | |
| Posted by:badanov |