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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
| Trump’s Gaza plan won’t happen, but it could shake up the region nonetheless |
| 2025-02-05 |
| [IsraelTimes] It is hard to predict what impact US president’s exile bid will have on hostage talks, though it does make Netanyahu’s proposals for the Strip seem far more reasonable in contrast As is often the case with Donald Trump, there were plenty of headline-worthy statements that came out his meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The US president said the Saudis were not demanding a Palestinian state; that the current Israeli government could complete the hostage release deal; that Iran is “very strong right now”; that the US would get more violent if Hamas didn’t release all the hostages. Yet the statement leading evening news shows in the US and news sites around the world was about the future of Gaza: “The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too. We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous bombs and other weapons on the site.” This wasn’t Trump speaking off the cuff. He was reading from prepared remarks during a joint press conference with Netanyahu, the first foreign leader to visit the White House since the Republican returned to office in January. Though he often stakes out up unexpected positions as a tactic to help get what he wants on other matters, he seemed to be sincere about this one. Shortly before that, Trump said in the Oval Office that he wants Palestinians to leave Gaza, and that ideally they would not return to the war-torn region. Netanyahu seemed not to know how to react to the outlandish plan. “I think it’s worth paying attention to this,” he said noncommittally. “We’re talking about tgit. He’s exploring it with his people, with his staff. I think it’s something that could change history, and it’s worthwhile really pursuing this avenue.” The plan is not about to be implemented. Gazans, who survived 15 months of punishing attacks by Israel, largely don’t want to live in exile, and Trump isn’t going to send US troops to push almost 2 million people out of the Strip. Nor will Egypt and Jordan go along with it, despite Trump’s confidence that their reliance on US aid and military support gives him enough leverage to push them to take in massive numbers of Gazan refugees. For both countries, Trump’s proposal crosses red lines. Jordan’s regime lives in perpetual fear that the Israeli right will implement the idea that Jordan is Palestine, and will treat the Hashemite kingdom as the Palestinian state. Jordan is already mostly Palestinian, and the influx of hundreds of thousands more Palestinians will destabilize a country that already suffers from legitimacy problems and accusations that it serves as a Western stooge against the interests of Palestinians. Egypt also sees the potential influx of Gazans as an existential threat. It remembers Hamas breaching the border wall in 2008, and up to 700,000 Palestinians pouring into the Sinai. The incident led to new ties between jihadists in the Sinai and Hamas, which helped the Islamc State affiliate in the peninsula carry out a bloody insurgency against Egyptian forces. The Sissi government in Egypt views the Muslim Brotherhood as its mortal enemy, and is not about to allow thousands of fighters from the Brotherhood-affiliated Hamas into the country. Israel’s peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan are foundations of its national security, and it would be unwise to back a policy that could destabilize two regimes that cooperate closely on military and security issues. Even if the plan doesn’t move forward, Trump even floating the idea presents its own dangers and opportunities. Emptying Gaza of Palestinians is the dream of Israel’s far-right, and hearing the US president back the idea will make them believe that the goal is attainable. Now, even if Netanyahu can get Hamas out of Gaza, it won’t be enough for some coalition partners. They will want to see Netanyahu work to implement Trump’s plan, and could threaten his political survival if he opposes the idea. If Netanyahu continues his approach of backing Trump’s ideas to stay in his good graces, he could undermine Israel’s alliances with Jordan and Egypt, with nothing to show for it. Trump and Netanyahu have much they can accomplish together. They can put an end to Iran’s nuclear program, cement Israel’s place in the region, and go after hostile organizations like the courts in The Hague and various UN agencies. Wasting energy and political capital on Trump’s Gaza idea is not the ideal way to take advantage of the potential created by the current alignment of political stars. And it is hard to predict the effect Trump’s proposal will have on hostage talks. It could convince Hamas that holding on to the male hostages is the only way to keep him from moving ahead with his Gaza program. And it gives the terror group the opportunity to present itself to the Palestinians and the Arab world as the one fighting to keep Gazans in their homes against US-Israeli designs. At the same time, there is opportunity for Netanyahu in the chaos. Israel’s demands for Gaza — Hamas leaders in exile, its fighters disarmed, and a new international consortium overseeing the Strip — may suddenly seem reasonable and desirable to regional players compared to Trump’s suggestion. Moreover, the prime minister can curry favor in Egypt and Jordan if he quietly moves Trump away from the expulsion idea. Even if the plan is a non-starter, it could have another important benefit. Trump isn’t afraid of challenging conventions and forcing leaders to disabuse old, tired notions. Moving Gazans to Arab countries might not work, but neither will ending the war while Hamas remains the strongest force in Gaza. New ideas are needed for Gaza, and for the Palestinian issue in general. Trump might be detached from reality in the region, but his willingness to move beyond decades-old failed ideas could open the debate to novel approaches to the Palestinian issue, a challenge in desperate need of creative solutions in the coming years. |
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #4 Good practice. Detriot next. |
| Posted by: BrerRabbit 2025-02-05 09:39 |
| #3 It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future. But as a rule, I would not be betting against Donald Trump. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2025-02-05 09:35 |
| #2 They don’t want to be exiled. They do want to be able to move away. The Trump plan long term provides a pathway to return for those willing to live peacefully and work hard in a resort. All the other plans are a pathway to rinse and repeat 10/7 and its sequelæ. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2025-02-05 05:23 |
| #1 Gazans, who survived 15 months of punishing attacks by Israel, largely don’t want to live in exile How do you know that? |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-02-05 05:17 |