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China-Japan-Koreas
Time For China To Turn On The Printing Press
2024-09-22
[ZH] Summary
  • Chinese money supply leads imports ~10 months

  • M1 Supply y/y growth weakest/sharpest drop in decades

  • Suggests 20% collapse in imports

RED FLAG FOR RED CHINA
The advantage of tracking container volumes is that we can bypass inflation and price distortions.

Simply put, on a container volume basis, Chinese imports are struggling: -7% y/y. Container throughput has fallen 20% in the last 2 years.

The Chinese economic miracle is fading. Unemployment is 5.3% in the cities and 17% among youth 17-24 years old (ex students). Goldman, Citi, JP Morgan are all expecting growth of <5%.

The housing sector is the point of focus. Housing asset values supported the consumer economy but prices have collapsed. The latest month: -7% y/y. The Chinese consumer won't spend until housing prices stabilize. The housing bubble must be reinflated.
Lots of stats and graphs follow
Posted by:Frank G

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Posted by: Seeking Cure For Ignorance   2024-09-22 23:18  

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Posted by: Lord Garth   2024-09-22 08:50  

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