[Gateway] During my time in Government, I twice had an encounter with a former Director of National Intelligence who made an odd comment. On both occasions, he said, "Taiwan is definitely going back to China," as if Taiwan was anyone’s to give away. On both occasions, I stopped him and corrected him that such a statement was nowhere in U.S. Law nor even stated policy. Both times he retreated and attempted to clarify himself. I had great respect for him and had once received a rare award from him and found these very odd statements, especially the second time a year later when he made the same strong assertion again.
The elections in Taiwan are only a couple of days away on January 13, 2024, and the stakes are high. For years, Presidential Administrations have used "strategic ambiguity" in regard to Taiwan. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) was for years the law in effect on Taiwan and stated it was required for the United States "to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan." What did this mean? It meant it was law that the U.S. would maintain a military large enough to resist any use of force or other forms of coercion against Taiwan. Not exactly a crystal-clear expression of U.S. Policy on Taiwan, but it did imply Taiwan was under the American nuclear umbrella, and with a large U.S. Navy and Air Force presence in the Western Pacific, the Chinese were deterred from taking Taiwan. Would the U.S. come to the aid of Taiwan if attacked? My interpretation was yes — but few of my colleagues were confident or advocated that.
Times have changed, and President Biden was told by President Xi of China when they met in San Francisco that China would re-unify Taiwan with the mainland, and then on December 31, 2023, President Xi said, "re-unification was inevitable". This statement was possibly the most bellicose reference to Taiwan made by a Chinese leader in 30-plus years. |