[Korrespondent] The most important achievement of Ukraine during the counter-offensive was the superiority over the Russians in counter-battery combat, combined with the best means to detect enemy artillery.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is gaining momentum, and this is already openly recognized by Western analysts. In particular, the Royal Joint Defense Research Institute (RUSI) released a report on September 4, 2023 called Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defenses in Ukraine's 2023 Offensive (Storm Breakthrough: Overcoming Russian Defenses During the Counteroffensive of Ukraine 2023). Its authors Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, who have been carefully researching the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine for many months (in particular, have repeatedly visited Ukraine and visited the frontline areas), this time focused on the actions of the Ukrainian and Russian armies during the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the south.
SUPERIORITY IN ARTILLERY
The advancement of Ukrainian forces during the offensive depends on the fire advantage. The most important achievement of Ukraine was the superiority over the Russians in counter-battery combat, combined with the best means to detect enemy artillery. However, the preservation of this advantage is limited by the serviceability of Ukrainian artillery pieces, the availability of interchangeable barrels and the continued supply of 155-mm ammunition, the authors of the report note. RUSI analysts emphasize that the Armed Forces of Ukraine currently use 17 different artillery systems at the front, so the replacement of barrels for all of them is an obvious problem due to the lack of barreled vehicles in NATO. Therefore, they consider it vital that Ukraine's international partners ensure stable supplies of a consolidated artillery fleet for the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
“If this is not achieved, it will undermine the prerequisites for Ukraine to continue to make progress next year,” RUSI researchers warn. They also cite the protection of weapons from the Lancet-3M UAV and other Russian munitions as a critical priority, urging the West to expedite the provision of such protection to Ukraine.
NEED HELP CLEARING MINES
The Armed Forces of Ukraine could make better use of the conditions at the front created by their fire advantage if the West provided Ukraine with greater opportunities for reconnaissance of minefields. Such assistance should focus on mine detection equipment and technology. For example, a technique that uses UAV algorithmic image analysis to quickly map minefields would be useful, RUSI notes. After all, Russia's departure from the "doctrinal" scheme of mining means that minefields differ in their real contours from those depicted on Russian plans. This makes it difficult for Ukrainian commanders to plan offensive operations and exploit advance breakthroughs. Whereas ample opportunities for demining could help Ukraine avoid unacceptable losses of the same Western equipment.
PLANS FOR 2024
The dynamics of winter hostilities is one of the issues that should now dominate the thinking and assistance strategy of Ukraine's international partners. Last year, Russia ill-prepared its troops for winter conditions, which inflicted disproportionate damage on its troops than on Ukrainians. Therefore, since the current offensive operations of Ukraine are likely to last until the autumn, it is important to raise the question of whether measures can now be taken to maintain the pressure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the occupiers during the winter, analysts say. Otherwise, it is very likely that Russia will hope to end Ukraine's winter offensive in order to return to trying to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure. “Now it is clear that the conflict will drag on. Therefore, it is important that Ukraine's international partners invest now, to provide Ukraine with long-term benefits. Failure to adapt support for the Armed Forces in time will come at a high price in 2024,” the authors of the report note.