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| Work in Rabotino. Kyiv is betting on a new decisive offensive |
| 2023-08-31 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Sergey Adamov Months after the start of the counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to achieve the first, rather modest tactical successes. Several settlements in the Zaporozhye region have passed under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - including the Ukrainian command claims to have captured the village of Rabotino, 70 kilometers north of Melitopol. Both the command of the Ukrainian army and the Western media place special hopes on this tactical success. The loss of Rabotino, however, was refuted by the Acting Governor of the Zaporizhzhya Region Evgeny Balitsky. The New York Times sources believe that the "retreat" of Russian troops from Rabotino could give Ukrainian troops the opportunity for a larger breakthrough on the southern front. Although, the newspaper notes, it is unclear how far they can go. Journalists also report that the Ukrainian offensive is being conducted in two directions at once: to Melitopol and from Velikaya Novosyolka to Berdyansk, to the coast of the Sea of Azov. Ukrainian sources link the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area with overcoming either the first or the second lines of Russian defense, drawing a variety of plans for a possible offensive. Its targets are the city of Tokmak (a district center 20 kilometers south of Rabotino), Melitopol, and in some cases even the Crimea. According to some reports, a large grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is concentrating in the Rabotino area, which will have to break through the front line in this area. Separate sources speak of the deployment of 10 to 20 units of the Ukrainian army in the area. What forces are used by the enemy According to an informed source of IA Regnum , most of the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were preparing to participate in the offensive at the training grounds of NATO countries, are really concentrated on the Zaporozhye sector of the front. However, there are several areas where the enemy can go on the next offensive. “At the first stage of the offensive in the Orekhovo direction, where Rabotino is located, formations of the 47th and 65th Ombre (separate mechanized brigades) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were involved,” the source explained. - These are the parts that the Leopard 2 tanks and the Bradley IFV use. As these units wore down, the reserve, freshly formed 116th, 117th and 118th brigades, units of the Ukrainian National Guard - the so-called "Advanced Guard" were sent to help them on the Zaporozhye Front . These are the "brigades" "Kara-Dag", "Spartan" and "Azov", the source listed IA Regnum . “Regarding Azov, don’t confuse it with a neo-Nazi group banned in Russia, this is a different connection,” the interlocutor explained. - And on the flanks, parts of the National Guard from among the personnel are also involved. Of the latter, the 82nd airmobile brigade was sent to the breakthrough zone on American Stryker armored personnel carriers . Actually, while the 82nd brigade is trying to move forward, the units involved earlier are replenishing, repairing equipment and so on, the source added. According to the interlocutor of IA Regnum, the main actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are focused on advancing between the villages of Verbove and Novoprokopovka, which are located south and southeast of Rabotino. Due to the predominantly flat landscape, the main battles are fought for the possession of forest belts. Separate reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to advance in an open field, but they cannot gain a foothold and retreat. At the same time, part of the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had to be withdrawn to the rear due to the advance of Russian troops in other sectors of the front. “According to some reports, the 44th and 41st mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were transferred to the Kharkiv region . And part of the forces they were forced to transfer to the Artemovsk region . - the source told IA Regnum . Consequently, they cannot yet use all the prepared reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the offensive. “And, apparently, they won’t be able to,” the interlocutor believes. Where can a breakthrough attempt be expected? It should be taken into account that significant enemy forces are already concentrated in the Zaporizhia sector - which, however, are stretched for one and a half hundred kilometers, from the Dnieper to the Ugledar region (southwest of the DPR), the source of IA Regnum notes . The fact that the enemy will attempt to break through somewhere in the Zaporozhye direction is quite expected. According to The Guardian, the "offensive" in the area was one of the main topics at a recent meeting between the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzny with the commander of US forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli and British Admiral Anthony Radakin . According to journalists, the West strongly advises the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to concentrate a large strike force for the subsequent breakthrough of the front. The Orekhovskoye direction is the most likely for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Maxim Tumbartsev told IA Regnum . In his opinion, "the next attempt by the enemy to seize the initiative at the front should be expected before the start of the autumn thaw." “As long as they have the opportunity, the offensive in the Rabotino area will continue,” Tumbartsev predicts. According to him, the enemy will use all available forces and reserves for this, transferring combat-ready formations from other directions. “The situation is somewhat similar to Artyomovsk, where they also threw everything they had. Only there was defense, and here they are trying to attack. Accordingly, we will also pull up some combat-ready units there, to the Rabotino region, in order to contain them to the maximum and, possibly, counterattack, ”the expert notes. Acting in this direction, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine expects to cut the land corridor to the Crimea, Tumbartsev points out. It is the direction from Rabotino to Tokmak and further to Melitopol that makes it possible to break through to the Sea of Azov along the shortest route. The distance from the front line to the sea coast is just over 100 km. There is also an alternative offensive option - to Berdyansk and Mariupol, but here it will be more difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to realize their tasks. “If you look at the map and estimate the distance from the front to Mariupol, you can see that the direction is not the most convenient ,” Tumbartsev explains. - Even in the event of a breakthrough to the Sea of Azov, no tasks are solved in this area. Far from Crimea, but close to the border with Russia, on the contrary. Even if we allow a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction, then “the supply of the Russian army in the Zaporozhye region will have little effect, but on the other hand, it will be more convenient for us to transfer reinforcements,” the expert believes. So, he believes, here the offensive should be expected in the second turn. There are also alternative offensive options, not in the Zaporizhia, but in the Donbas sector, but they are much less promising. One of them is an offensive from Artyomovsk, with the aim of reaching the Lisichansk-Popasnaya-Svetlodarsk line, that is, the line of contact before the start of the NWO. However, this scenario does not solve any of the tasks facing Kiev. Since the Ukrainian leadership is considering the option of a breakthrough to the Crimea as an opportunity to start peace negotiations on their own terms. “Actually, at the end of winter, the Western media wrote, and Zelensky confirmed this in a recent interview: they say, we will reach the Crimea, and then we will put diplomatic pressure. Therefore, it is in the Orekhovskoye direction that we should expect further attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to move forward,” Tumbartsev notes. A few weeks before the start of autumn rains remain at the disposal of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after which it is definitely not worth waiting for attempts to break through from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Tumbartsev also points out. At a minimum, you should not wait until winter until the ground hardens, and in the long term - until next summer. However, it is unlikely that Western partners will wait another six months or a year, and most likely, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be resumed in the near future, the expert believes. |
| Posted by:badanov |