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| Europe |
| At the door of the Brest Corridor. Poland draws forces to the Belarusian border |
| 2023-08-15 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. By Sergey Adamov [REGNUM] The Polish government intends to purchase thousands of pieces of military equipment to counter the "Russian threat". Local TV channels broadcast the ceremony of signing agreements between the head of the military department, Mariusz Blaszczak , and the Polish Military Industrial Group on the purchase of hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers for the country's army, TASS reported on August 14 . We are talking about 700 heavy infantry fighting vehicles. Not so long ago, the cabinet of Mateusz Morawiecki turned to the senior partner - the United States - with a request for the supply of M1A2 Abrams tanks and Apache attack helicopters. “Next week, we expect the US Congress to approve our request for Apache helicopters,” Blaszczak said. Earlier, he also announced a large-scale purchase of a batch of military equipment in South Korea. In total, Poland intends to purchase from Seoul a thousand K2 Black Panther tanks, more than 600 K9 Thunder self-propelled artillery mounts and three squadrons of FA-50 fighters. This weekend, it was officially announced where exactly the Poles intend to collect manpower and equipment, including Abrams and Apaches. Blaszczak said on TVP Info: The Polish Army intends to "close the Brest Gates", that is, send troops to the 80-kilometer section of the border between Poland and Belarus from the Narew River to the Western Bug River. It is this area in the West that is considered the most suitable for the "Russian offensive." “Today, the escalation from Poland on the border of Belarus, <...> is clearly visible, it is coming, artificial. Not to say that they are about to attack, but they are trying to show their teeth, they are rattling their weapons , ” commented the chairman of the Brest Regional Executive Committee Yury Shuleiko . IN A ONE-ON-ONE CLASH, BELARUSIANS HAVE AN ADVANTAGE A direct attack by Poland on Belarus (if purely hypothetically we exclude the factors of assistance from the allies with nuclear weapons - respectively, the NATO countries and Russia), most likely, will not turn out in favor of the Poles. This conclusion was also reached by the authors of the American analytical portal Military Watch, who compared the arsenals of both sides back in 2020. Actually, the Belarusian air defense forces, equipped with S-300, Buk and Torami-M2E, are enough to build a defense in depth, which Polish fighters and fighter-bombers (at that time they were F-16C and Su-22M4 ) will be extremely difficult to break through. While the Polish S-200 Vega and S-125 Pechora-2M will be knocked out by Belarusian Kh-31P air-to-surface missiles, American experts noted. The slight advantage of the Poles in terms of tanks is offset by the presence of Su-25 attack aircraft in the Belarusian Air Force. In addition, Belarus has an advantage in strike systems - here tactical missiles OTP-21 and R-17 and MLRS of the Belarusian development "Polonaise" form the basis of the arsenal. But the main deterrent at the moment is the actual deployment from 2022 of a regional group of forces (RGV) with the participation of the 20th Army of the Western District of the Russian Armed Forces and the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons promised to Belarus. Nevertheless, experts, including again American ones, do not exclude that Poland will take the risk of a provocation against Belarus. For example, the fact that Poland, in a fit of desperation due to Russia's superiority in the Ukrainian conflict, is most likely preparing to attack Belarus, was previously interviewed by former CIA analyst Larry Johnson in an interview with the Dialogue works YouTube channel. A possible plan for a military invasion of the territory of Belarus provides, first of all, not a direct strike on the country - an ally of Russia, but waging war using hybrid methods, believes independent Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin. "VOLUNTEER CORPS" WILL ASK FOR HELP “Not so long ago, the former commander of the ground forces of Poland, Waldemar Skrzypchak, said: if an internal war breaks out in Belarus, some kind of uprising against the regime,“ and it will inevitably arise,” as he believes, then Poland should intervene and help,” Alesin reminded IA Regnum . “They have plans that the fifth column will rise, and the war will begin as an invasion of armed opposition forces from the territory of Ukraine.” As part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we recall, the so-called "Kalinovsky Regiment" operates - the activities of which were previously described in detail by IA Regnum. “They will need to seize some significant piece of territory, say, a district center. And then mercenaries, volunteers, and even regular Polish military units can enter under their banner. They hope that such an internal conflict will arise and they will support it, ”Alesin suggested. Actually, groups of nationalists operating as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be increased by mercenaries undergoing training at the training grounds of the Polish Armed Forces, the expert believes. The calculation, according to analysts, will be based on a quick destabilization of the situation, in which the Belarusian authorities will not be able to quickly mobilize military force. According to Alexander Alesin, escalating the situation in the area bordering the Brest region is fraught with an emergency. If large formations of troops are concentrated on both sides, the situation may develop into a border conflict, the threat of which is constantly pumped up by Polish propaganda. CORRIDOR UNDER SPECIAL SUPERVISION The fact that it is the Brest Gates, and not the notorious Suwalki Corridor, that is now considered a springboard for the allegedly impending Russian strike, could be judged from the statement of Polish President Andrzej Duda at the July Vilnius NATO summit. Duda said that the North Atlantic Alliance is ready to deploy about 100,000 troops to Poland in the event of a Russian “attack” on the Brest Gates. After Moscow's decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, the Brest Corridor will be "under special supervision and control" by NATO, Duda warned. At the end of last week, Blaszczak announced that the military department had begun preparing infrastructure in the Podlasie Voivodeship on the border with Belarus - a new 1st infantry division of the legions should be deployed here by the end of autumn. It is supposed to be equipped with Abrams and K2, as well as self-propelled howitzers - South Korean K9 and Polish Krab. In the town of Charna-Belostotskaya, 36 kilometers from the border with the Grodno region, a tactical training center for the 1st Infantry Division will be created, Interfax -AVN reports Blaschak's statement. A unit of the 18th Bialystok Reconnaissance Regiment will also be stationed here. The new division is “very branched in its structure, very large, 15 units in 12 locations, and we also need to train for our own needs,” General Norbert Ivanovsky, commander of the 1st division, told the Polish PAP agency. A unit with the same name - the 1st division of the legions - existed in pre-war Poland and, curiously, showed itself during the war with Soviet Russia in 1919-1921, and primarily in battles with the "Red Russians" for Vilna (the current Lithuanian capital Vilnius). The appearance of a new legionnaire division near the borders of the former "Eastern Kresy" is part of Warsaw's plan to turn the Polish Army into one of the most numerous and technically equipped non-nuclear forces in Europe. Last year, parliament passed a law to increase the armed forces from 115,000 to 300,000 people. The militarization of Poland is taking place within the framework of NATO's overall policy of building up forces in Eastern Europe. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, a contingent of 360 thousand people is concentrated on the eastern flank of NATO. Poland is turning "into the main instrument of the anti-Russian policy of the United States of America," Sergei Shoigu stated . But, according to experts, any large-scale provocations against Belarus are not a matter of the near future. POLAND FOCUSES “Recently, there has been a drop in real combat power due to the transfer of a number of pieces of equipment to Ukraine. These are the Leopard 2 and T-72M1 tanks, which were produced in Poland under license, and the PT-91 Twardy, which Poland made from the T-72, Alesin lists. — Close the resulting hole will not succeed quickly. Yes, they ordered a thousand tanks, and this is a serious figure. But they need to be produced, delivered, a maintenance system needs to be created.” It should also be taken into account that all modern military equipment is purchased by Poland on credit, Morawiecki's cabinet has to cut military spending, a military analyst noted. Do not underestimate the growth in the number of modern tanks that will have to enter service with the Polish army in the foreseeable future, for his part, stressed a military expert, an officer of the reserve tank forces Alexander Mikhailovsky . South Korean K2 tanks are among the most modern and technologically advanced. “Since the Republic of Korea is in a state of permanent military conflict with the DPRK, they have an extremely powerful military-industrial complex, which is constantly being modernized and improved. These tanks will need to go into battle "already tomorrow", so they are being developed specifically for a full-scale war. Everything there is thought out with Asian meticulousness: from the quality of tank armor and engine to the fire control system, communication systems, ” Mikhailovsky said. If we take modern tanks, then the Black Panther's closest competitor is the latest model of the Israeli Merkava, "again, because Israel is in a state of permanent war," the source noted. “A thousand of these vehicles is really a lot, seriously, and if we proceed from the fact that they eventually reach Poland, it will be the most powerful tank fist on the European continent, in fact, if we take only NATO countries,” the expert said . Mikhailovsky also drew attention to the fact that enterprises specializing in servicing Korean military equipment have already been created in Poland. In particular, the Polish self-propelled artillery gun AHS "Krab" is made on the basis of the Korean self-propelled gun K9. Therefore, maintenance of equipment can be arranged as new batches of tanks and self-propelled guns arrive. The creation of such an “armored fist” suggests that in Poland they are preparing not for the defense of the “eastern flank of NATO”, but rather for offensive operations, Mikhailovsky sums up. |
| Posted by:badanov |