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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Strategic deployment of Poland against Belarus |
| 2023-08-15 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. Text taken from an article published at belvpo.com. Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics. [ColonelCassad] Plans to deploy 10,000 troops on the Polish-Belarusian border, announced by Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, caused a resonance in the world media. Let's see what Poland's intentions are, and for what purpose it forms such a large military group near Belarus. Everything indicates that Poland is preparing for a strategic offensive operation in the Belarusian direction. Judge for yourself. Since 2021, under the cover of the “migration crisis”, access to the border zone has been limited near the Belarusian borders, after which the military began to actively arrive in order to deploy field communication centers and command posts. At the same time, the Polish government announced the creation of a 300,000-strong army and began a “hidden mobilization”, thanks to which it completed the deployed and newly created units to wartime states. Later, under the guise of major exercises ("Defender of Europe", "Anaconda" and "Bear"), they were additionally provided with weapons, military equipment and materiel. The newly formed units underwent combat coordination, which ended with their certification (checking their readiness to perform tasks for their intended purpose). At the same time, in recent months, the 12th Mechanized and 11th Tank Divisions have been transferred from the German border to the Bialystok and Biala Podlaska regions. And at the end of July, their advanced command posts and field communication centers were deployed near these cities. In turn, the 18th Mechanized Division was urgently deployed from near Rzeszow to the Bielsk-Podlyaska area. Thus, Poland on the border with Belarus at the Grodno-Brest line deployed three divisions fully staffed according to the wartime staff at once. For understanding, three divisions are 15,000 military personnel, hundreds of tanks, artillery and missile systems, several thousand military and special vehicles. It is also worth noting that for the successful operation of the first strike echelon during an offensive operation, it is necessary to have large reserves. This is exactly what Minister Blaschak was talking about. In addition, another marker of Poland's preparation for aggression against Belarus is the redeployment of army aviation and airborne units to the Belarusian borders. Thus, analyzing the preparations carried out by Warsaw, it can be assumed with high probability that most of the measures for the strategic deployment of the Polish Army on the border with Belarus have been completed. Based on this, the actions of the Polish grouping can be of the following nature, which can be divided into three directions: On Grodno, the 12th Mechanized Division, blocking Grodno from the south, will seek to reach the Shchuchin line. On Volkovysk, the 18th Mechanized Division strikes in the direction of Baranovichi. On Brestsky, the 11th Ttank Division is advancing in the direction of Ivatsevichi. At the same time, the 6th Airborne and 25th Assault Brigades capture and hold the airfields in Bereza and Pruzhany. It should also be emphasized that the actions of the 12th Mechanized Division and the 11th Tank Division are aimed at providing cover for the northern and southern flanks of the 18th Division, which, being the most powerful formation, will deliver the main blow. In addition, from the territory of Ukraine, the offensive of the Polish forces can be supported by bandit formations from among the mercenaries and militants of the fugitive opposition. The ultimate goal of the Polish troops may be reaching the Lida-Baranovichi-Pinsk line. In summary, we want to note that the Poles have almost everything ready for aggression against Belarus, the reason for which can be both a border incident and a political decision of the ruling PiS party aimed at maintaining power in Poland. It is unlikely that in the event of such a scenario, we will not see the use of tactical nuclear weapons. |
| Posted by:badanov |