[PJ] When the story of the 2022 midterm elections is written, there will probably be considerable space devoted to the unlikely way in which Republicans were able to win their majority.
As it stands now — the Saturday before election day — the Democrat’s road to a Senate majority is extremely narrow. Best case scenario: they may be able to lose two seats while still retaining their 50-50 advantage with Vice President Harris casting the deciding vote.
The current board shows 6 toss-up races. Two of those seats are currently in the GOP’s hands — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two other Republican-held seats in Ohio and Florida were toss-ups at one time but have moved into the "lean GOP" category.
If Democrats manage to win in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Republicans will have to win at least three of the remaining Democratic-held toss-up seats to win a one-seat majority. It would be a challenge but certainly not impossible.
But in a truly tsunami-like election, the wave becomes a destructive force for Democrats, meaning that even seats that "lean Democratic" may be in play. This means that Sen. Maggie Hassan’s New Hampshire seat is up for grabs as well as Sen. Patty Murray’s Washington Senate seat. |