Comments from an old friend and former Intelligence Threat Analysis Center (ITAC) hand.
This is a good analysis of the possible Russian courses of action against Ukraine.
The Russians are constrained by certain natural and political factors. They need the ground to be frozen to facilitate mechanized operations. This will last until early march, thereafter, as the Germans discovered the spring thaw turns everything into a sea of mud.
Putin is not likely to disrupt China’s Genocide Games which will end on 20 Feb and which Putin will be attending. For those of you who were in Germay with me, you will notice our old friends, the 8th Guards Combined Army (the heroes of Stalingrad) would carry the ball if the Russians attacked into the Donbass of eastern Ukraine.
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