h/t Instapundit
[WashExam] - ...There are two different things to consider when developing a forecast. For one, modern economies are horrendously complex things, taking centuries to develop. Interrupt them, and we get knocked back years, or potentially decades, and have to rebuild all over again. The other is that the economy stops dead pretty much every Friday night, and we've no great problem starting 'er up again Monday morning. Ultimately, the longer the recession lasts, the more likely we are to have permanent damage, putting us closer in line with 1929 than 1920.
An eminent economist is one who can explain why his forecasts didn't work out.
...My own view is that the structure of the U.S. economy accounts for these results. Largely capitalist, largely free market, it's more adaptable than most others. We are seeing, as far as I can tell, a swift recovery from that lockdown-induced recession. It's great news because it means we're all slowly getting richer again as we creep out of the ditch.
Enlightened self-interest works (of course the current era is a bit short on enlightened) |