By Shelley Rigger
[Foreign Policy Research Institute] Over the past 30 years there have been many moments when Taiwan-watchers worked themselves into a tizzy worrying about the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Until now, though, I have been confident that worst-case thinking was unjustified, and the chances of open conflict were low.
Until now, but no longer.
At this moment, as Taiwan’s political parties battle over their presidential nominations, I am more worried about the future of the Taiwan Strait than I have ever been. Ominous trends are building on all three sides of the triangle, and conflict could be the result. It is by no means inevitable, or even the most likely future. But for the first time in decades, I can see a plausible path to disaster in the Taiwan Strait.| I'm too uninformed to pass judgement on this take, but maybe someone here will have something to add. |
|