[ATimes]
If fighting breaks out between Russia and its neighbors, the Baltic States are one of the likeliest battlegrounds. Various factors make this a tricky scenario for the NATO alliance.
Anti-NATO mood, doubts about Germany
An even greater problem for the United States is why it should fight, especially if the unfolding situation is hybrid in character, or if the local states provoke matters with the Russians, as seems potentially likely the case in the power grid controversy. Today’s mood in Washington is not too friendly to NATO or to Europeans, who have not lived up to their agreed obligations and who have diluted NATO by setting up a separate and independent European command with an unclear mandate.
Then there is, in the background. the very real problem that key NATO allies could be put out of business by only the turn of a gas valve by the Russians. Germany, as US President Donald Trump recently noted, is 70% dependent on Russian natural gas that it needs to run industries, generate electricity and heat homes. Even if Washington had an inclination to fight in Poland or the Balkans, there is a very good chance its most important strategically positioned ally, Germany, won’t.
The US cannot support the Balkans or Poland without the Germans because Germany is a vital staging ground. Nor can NATO’s Article 5 work without 100% consensus. Germany presents a real problem and President Trump has laid it bare.
Without a radical upgrade in NATO’s posture and serious allied cooperation (not just some token troops rotating in and out of the Balkans), the US may not fight the next war in Europe since: NATO won’t necessarily agree; it is likely Germany might not cooperate; and the American people may see no upside to getting into a shooting war with Russia.
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