[Observer]The point is that these shutdowns did not have an effect on electoral outcomes. Part of the reason for this is that since 1995—when the GOP gained control of House and Senate—government shutdowns have occurred well in advance of the normal election calendar.
However, there hasn’t been a government shutdown in modern times while one party controlled the government. So, if there is political risk for congressional GOPers, aside from Trump’s fumbles and current poll numbers, it’s that they are in uncharted political waters.
Shutdown Impact On The Market
LPL Financial tracks the stock market during government shutdowns. In the cases above, the S&P was not highly affected by a shutdown:
Reagan 1981 -0.1%
Reagan 1984 -2.2%
Reagan 1986 -0.3%
Bush 1990 -2.1%
Clinton 1995 1.3%
Clinton 1996 0.1%
Obama 2013 3.1%
Government shutdowns have never cost the stock market more than a few points, thus they haven’t been something to worry about. Wall Street knows Washington is dysfunctional and that shutdowns have always been resolved in relatively short order.