If conventional wisdom is right, François Fillon’s thumping victory in France's centre-right presidential primaries on Sunday as good as hands him the keys to the Elysée Palace.
| The two favorites are Fillon and Le Pen -- a conventional conservative and a hard right activist. Strangely, the left is not doing well in the polls. I can't imagine why -- has something happened to tarnish the lustrous brand of socialism? |
But conventional wisdom was turned upside down in the UK’s referendum on EU membership and the US presidential election. Mr Fillon is the favourite now, but there is nothing inevitable about his path to the presidency.
If he is to achieve his ambition, two premises must hold. |