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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
After losing the functional equivalent of two rifle brigades in the Debaltsevo debacle, and most of the equipment and supplies that go with it, it is clear that the Ukrainian Army has lost any chance to initiate any offensives for the foreseeable future.
Weather in southeastern Ukraine has moderated, unlike here, and has dried out to some extent. That means that the ground conditions are good enough for the rebels to initiate another offensive. So the question at the moment is where would they hit the Ukrainians, before the spring thaw comes?
Ukrainian media suggests Mariupol, but I believe that the next rebel offensive will entail forcing Ukrainian artillery away from Donetsk city, which is still being shelled by Ukrainians.
Eliminating the Debaltsevo salient has freed up a number of rebel combat units, a small operation reserve which could be easily be redeployed near Donetsk city. The victory has also netted a railway/road net far better suited to supporting operations in the north than Krasnii Luch has been, which is about 30 kilometers southeast of Debaltsevo.
Chris Covert writes about foreign military issues for Rantburg.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com. Click here for a list of stories in the The 2014 War in Ukraina category.