Institute for the Study of War Iraq Updates
Conclusion
The Iraqi Shi'a are not waiting for the ISIS threat to develop further nor are they waiting for the national government to organize a coherent defense against the ISIS threat. They are actively seeking to provide protection for themselves, their shrines, and predominantly Iraqi Shi'a areas. Violence perpetrated by Iraqi Shi'a militias will increase if shrines are attacked. Reports of possible Iranian soldiers on Iraqi territory are very concerning, particularly as the Iraqi Shi'a begin to see the ISIS threat as existential. When viewed through this lens, help from fellow Shi'a - in both material and manpower forms - could be easily justified as not only permissible, but necessary in the eyes of Iraqi Shi'a.
Therefore, there is currently a coordinated ISF, Iraqi Shi'a militia, and Iranian effort. The Badr organization and Iranian main effort is concentrated in Diyala. The counter-offensive will likely focus on the areas of Tikrit and Samarra, with additional Shi'a militias concentrating on Baghdad and holy shrines.
Grand Ayatollah Sistani's declaration to fight against ISIS has numerous ramifications for Iraqi politics by cementing the unity of the Iraqi Shi'a political and militia leaders at a time when their support might have fractured. It is likelier now than immediately after the fall of Mosul that a Shi'a unity government more dependent on Iran will emerge in Baghdad if the ISIS crisis is averted.
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