by Lord Garth
There are only two regional powers that could invade Syria and hold territory. One is Israel which will not be doing so and one is Turkey which might.
Turkey has an enormous advantage in air power over Syria probably has enough competent ground forces to take and hold a buffer zone.
The questions are:
- 1. What would be in it for Turkey; and,
- 2. What would the rest of the world do?
#1, Turkey feels its prestige is on the line. They hate the thought of chaos on one of their borders. They hate the thought of a neighbor essentially defying them. They also believe that the population in a buffer zone would consider them as heros. On the other hand, an invasion would be costly. It would also seem to be a danger diplomatically which brings us to
#2, The Gulf States, the Saudis and maybe a few more countries would probably support such a move. If Assad fell as a result, any condemnations would be hollow and any UN statements would be even more watery than otherwise.
Any bets on whether this plays out and how deep a buffer zone would be needed, e.g., 5 mi or 10 mi or 15 mi?
| AoS at 1230 CT: original opinion pieces by Burg readers are always welcome. Put your name on it at the top so that we know. I added Lord Garth's name to this one. Thanks for the contribution, LG! |
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