It's official: A week before the midterm elections, odds are that Republicans will win control of the House but Democrats will keep control of the Senate, according to the overseas bookmakers taking bets on this sort of thing.
I guess we'll know for sure next week...
Ireland-based Paddy Power says Republicans are "hot favorites" at 1-33 odds to capture the lower chamber, though they are not favored to win the Senate, with bettors getting odds of 11-4 against it.
Ken Robertson, communications manager for Paddy Power, said Republicans had the edge in the Senate until July, when Democrats' momentum pushed them to become the odds-on favorite at 2-9, meaning a bettor placing a $9 wager stands to win just $2 if Democrats keep the 50 seats needed to control the upper house.
If the election bears out those predictions, it will be the first time since World War II that the House flipped control without the Senate also changing hands. But political prognosticators in the U.S. say that's increasingly looking likely, with the Republicans riding voter anger to capture at least 39 seats needed in the House, but having a tougher time in the Senate.
"It is mathematically possible for the GOP to score a net gain of 10 seats, but it is a very difficult proposition, practically speaking," the Cook Political Report said late last week. |